EPCR Challenge Cup Predictions – Quarter-finals

No less than five United Rugby Championship sides have reached the last eight of Europe’s second-tier club competition, along with two TOP 14 teams and a lone PREM outfit.

Unfortunately, from a South African perspective, no local teams remain in the hunt after the Sharks were knocked out in the Round of 16 last weekend. 

The quarters will kick off with a cracker between Ulster and La Rochelle in Belfast on Friday night. Saturday will see Montpellier play host to Connacht and Zebre do battle with the Dragons in Parma, before Benetton tackle the Exeter Chiefs in Treviso on Sunday.

Ulster v La Rochelle

Friday, 10 April – 21:00

Forget about saving the best for last. We’re kicking things off with the biggest blockbuster of the last eight.

These two sides are synonymous with the Investec Champions Cup, with Ulster having won the European top flight once, back in 1999, and La Rochelle boasting two stars, so this should be a high quality contest.

Ulster topped their pool and booked their quarter-final berth with a 28-24 win over the Ospreys last weekend. La Rochelle, meanwhile, started their European journey in the Champions Cup and are the only club of the four that dropped down from the big league still standing, courtesy of their 26-18 away win over the Newcastle Red Bulls.

The French giants have won three of the four previous meetings between these teams, including a 36-29 triumph in Belfast four years ago, which will give them confidence on this return trip to Northern Ireland.

They still have a massive pack, and they’re relentless and efficient at the breakdown with solid game drivers, but they’re not the all-conquering team from a few years ago.

Their lowly ninth place in the TOP 14 reflects this, whereas Ulster are currently third on the URC log. The Irish outfit weren’t at their best last weekend, and they’ll have to be to turn back their formidable visitors on Friday night.

That said, they’ve won eight of their last nine home games, and they’ll be up for this one physically. Add their fast-paced attack and superior strike power out wide, and they should pip it.

Prediction: Ulster by 2.

Montpellier v Connacht

Saturday, 11 April – 13:30

As top seeds and two-time champions, Montpellier have the form and history to make them firm favourites to advance to the final four, but don’t forget what happened when these two teams met at the same venue during the pool phase.

Connacht responded every time the hosts struck and took control from there to lead 31-14 with 15 minutes to go before Montpellier staged a remarkable comeback to escape with a 33-31 win.

It was a game of exceptional quality and the rematch promises to be a thriller with both teams in fine form and given that the three previous games between them were all decided by six points or less.

Regarding the Round of 16, Montpellier pummelled Perpignan 53-13, while Connacht saw off an understrength Sharks side 29-12. You’d have to think the French club will be better prepared for Stuart Lancaster’s men this time around and get over the line again. 

Prediction: Montpellier by 5.

Top 10 SA tries of the 2025-26 EPCR Challenge Cup

Zebre v Dragons

Saturday, 11 April – 21:00

At the start of the tournament, no one would’ve predicted that these two URC minnows would feature in the last eight but here we are – the bottom two URC teams vying for a first-ever Challenge Cup semi-final appearance.

Zebre looked anything but URC bottom dwellers in their 31-15 victory over Pau last weekend, while the Dragons stunned Stade Francais, with a last-gasp Wyn Jones try sealing a famous 36-31 win for the Welsh side.

The Italians have won three of their last five matches against the Dragons, including the most recent encounter, last year’s clash (31-21), which also happened to be in Parma, so the smart money is on them.

Prediction: Zebre by 6.

Benetton v Exeter Chiefs

Sunday, 12 April – 12:30

Benetton, who qualified for the playoffs as the second seeds, went from scoring the opening try in just 14 seconds to leading 28-7 to hanging on for a 38-35 win over Cardiff last weekend.

The high-flying Italians have been a joy to watch and lead the competition in points and tries scored so far, as well as carries, clean breaks, metres made and defenders beaten.

Seventh seeds Exeter came alive in the first half against Munster last weekend, racing into a 31-0 lead, and won 31-21 in the end. Even though Munster weren’t at full-strength, the win saw the last remaining English side continue to build momentum by stretching their winning streak in all competitions to three.

The Cardiff scare was exactly what Benetton needed to focus on what is really important in knockout rugby – defence and discipline. If they learned their lesson and worked on those facets this week, they should earn themselves a spot in the semi-finals.

Prediction: Benetton by 5.