UFC Fight Night: Ulberg v Reyes Predictions

Four Australian aces will be in action on home soil on the main card in Jack Jenkins, Jimmy Crute, Jake Matthews, and Tom Nolan.

Jenkins will take on Ramon Taveras in a featherweight co-headliner, Crute will collide with Ivan Erslan at light heavyweight, Matthews will meet Neil Magny at welterweight, and Nolan will face Charlie Campbell at lightweight.

MAIN CARD:

When: Sunday, September 28, 4 AM SAST

Carlos Ulberg (1.50) v Dominick Reyes (2.53) (Light Heavyweight)

One is a rising star, the other is a resurgent veteran. Both are obsessed with capturing UFC gold, but only one will move a step closer to fighting for the title in the land Down Under.

Ulberg’s only loss of his career came via knockout against Kennedy Nzechukwu in his UFC debut in 2021. Since then, the New Zealander has put together an eight-fight win streak to move to 12-1 and most recently defeated former light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz by decision in May.

Ranked third, “Black Jag” is uber-athletic and will be tough to beat with the crowd behind him. A crisp striker, he can finish things early – like he showed when he knocked out Alonzo Menifield in just 12 seconds last year – or outpoint an opponent with his tactical nous.

He’ll stand across from American veteran Reyes (15-4), who’s riding a three-fight win streak (all by knockout). “The Devastator” has come agonisingly close to winning the title twice, losing championship bouts to the great Jon Jones and Blachowicz back in 2020.

Many wrote him off after knockout losses to Jiri Prochazka and Ryan Spann followed those defeats, but the never-say-die Reyes rose like a Phoenix from the ashes, starching Dustin Jacoby, Anthony Smith, and Nikita Krylov to return to the top 10. Sitting seventh, he’s hell-bent on continuing his climb by taking out Ulberg.

While many see Ulberg as a relative newcomer and Reyes as one of the ‘old guard’ at 205 pounds, Ulberg is just a year younger at 34. Reyes is a great athlete in his own right, so while Ulberg should have a speed advantage, it shouldn’t be as pronounced as you’d first think.

The big difference between the two is Ulberg’s freshness compared to all the damage Reyes has endured in his career. Ulberg’s intelligence and top-class counter-striking should see him work the jab to frustrate his seasoned foe, punish him when he tries to close the distance, and ultimately land a fight-finishing shot. 

Prediction: Ulberg by knockout.
Best Bet: Ulberg by KO/TKO/DQ (check markets).
Alternative Bet: Ulberg at 1.50.

Jack Jenkins (1.33) v Ramon Taveras (3.25) (Featherweight)

Fighting at home has had its ups and downs for Jenkins (13-4). He’s defeated Don Shainis (by decision) and Herbert Burns (by TKO), but was submitted by Gabriel Santos last time out. Now in his first co-main event, “Phar” promises to show out.

Taveras (10-3) remains unproven at the highest level. His short UFC career has seen him edge Serhiy Sidey by split decision in a back-and-forth brawl and drop a decision to veteran Davey Grant last December. “The Savage” is a gamer and will take the fight to his Australian opponent.

The American is fighting at featherweight for the first time in the Octagon, though, moving up from 135 pounds. That puts him at a disadvantage against Jenkins, who’s a natural 145-pounder. Bank on the local favourite to get the job done.

Prediction: Jenkins by decision.
Best Bet: Jenkins by decision (check markets).

Jimmy Crute (1.53) v Ivan Erslan (2.45) (Light Heavyweight)

Having come through a torrid period, Crute (13-4-2) is ready to go on a run again.

Returning after a 19-month absence in February, “The Brute” fought Rodolfo Bellato to a draw and finally ended a five-fight winless streak with a submission win over Marcin Prachnio in July.

Erslan (14-5), on the other hand, is yet to turn the corner. The Croatian is yet to taste victory in the UFC, having lost his first two fights in the promotion – against Ion Cutelaba and Navajo Stirling – on points.

With 10 career knockouts, Erslan is not a man to take lightly, and Crute, as a UFC veteran, won’t make that mistake. Add the fact that he’s a complete fighter (five knockouts and five submissions), and Crute’s poised to pick up the win in style

Prediction: Crute by submission.
Best Bet: Crute by submission (check markets).
Alternative Bet: Crute at 1.53.

Jake Matthews (1.22) v Neil Magny (4.20) (Welterweight)

These two welterweight stalwarts will finally square off this weekend.

Matthews (22-7), who’s been a member of the UFC roster since 2014, has quietly done well for himself without breaking into the top 15. “The Celtic Kid” is 11-4 at welterweight and has won three in a row, most recently submitting Chidi Njokuani in July.

One of the longest tenured fighters in the UFC, Magny (30-13) will be making his 36th walk to the Octagon. He’s made a career out of overcoming the odds and did just that last time out, rallying to stop Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos and arresting a two-fight skid.

Super tall and rangy for a 170-pounder, Magny is a tricky customer and will have a massive seven-inch reach advantage. This fight is much more evenly matched on paper than the line suggests, so “The Haitian Sensation” is great value.

Prediction: Magny by decision.
Best Bet: Magny at 4.20.
Alternative Bet: Magny by decision (check markets).

Tom Nolan (1.61) v Charlie Campbell (2.25) (Lightweight)

Nolan (9-1) will look to set the tone for the Australian main card fighters when he kicks things off against his American adversary.

At 6’3″, he’s a towering lightweight and knows how to use his size. “Big Train” has been building a healthy head of steam in the form of three consecutive wins and has clocked good proverbial miles with his last two fights going the distance.

While Campbell (9-2) has won his two UFC fights to date, he’s been out of action for 17 months, so he could be rusty. Like his opponent, “The Cannibal” is a high-volume striker, which should make for a fun opener.

In a fight where momentum will likely prove decisive, the sharper Nolan should make it four in a row.

Prediction: Nolan by decision.
Best Bet: Nolan at 1.61.
Alternative Bet: Nolan by decision (check markets).