UFC Fight Night: Lewis v Teixeira Predictions

UFC Nashville’s co-headliner will see former welterweight title challenger Stephen Thompson battle Gabriel Bonfim, while Calvin Kattar collides with Steve Garcia in the featured bout at featherweight.

Staying in the 145-pound division, Nate Landwehr meets Morgan Charriere. Plus, heavyweights Vitor Petrino and Austen Lane and light heavyweights Junior Tafa and Tuco Tokkos throwdown.

MAIN CARD:

When: Sunday, July 13, 3 AM SAST

Derrick Lewis (3.20) v Tallison Teixeira (1.33) (Heavyweight)

Don’t blink in the main event battle of the behemoths.

No one in the history of the UFC has knocked out more men inside the Octagon than Lewis (28-12). The fan-favourite brawler has put away 15 foes in mixed martial arts’ ultimate proving ground, nine in the first round, and boasts 23 knockouts in all.

We haven’t seen “The Black Beast” in action in over a year. He last threw down last May, when he stopped Rodrigo Nascimento in the third round to rebound from a frustrating decision loss to Jailton Almeida and preserve his place in the heavyweight top 10.

He was never the fastest or most skillful fighter but the frightening dynamite he has in his hands has made him a mainstay in the heavyweight elite for years. A former two-time title challenger, ninth-ranked Lewis holds a win over former champion Francis Ngannou and has knocked out top contenders such as Curtis Blaydes and Alexander Volkov.

However, at 40, his best days are behind him.

Teixeira, on the other hand, is just getting started. Young, hungry and deadly, the Brazilian giant is a perfect 8-0 and boasts a 100% first-round finishing rate, so whether he scores the biggest win of his career or Lewis turns back the clock, this one is almost guaranteed to end early.

Just 25, “Xicão” signalled his arrival in the UFC with a 35-second knockout win over Justin Tafa in February and is elevated into his first main event in just his second fight in the promotion. It’ll be Lewis’ 11th UFC main event and the veteran will look to make the most of that experience edge.

Thirteenth-ranked Teixeira is a mountain of a man at 6’7″. He’ll tower over Lewis, who’s 6’3″, and, more importantly, will have a four-inch reach advantage. He’s also faster and more athletic than his veteran opponent. Experience doesn’t count for as much at heavyweight as it does in other weight classes given a fight can end with a single shot.

Sure, Lewis’ composure in the heat of battle is welcome, but his slowness and lack of output make him a sitting duck against a young gun like Teixeira. Back the Brazilian to break into the top 10 with a quick KO.

Prediction: Teixeira by knockout.

Best Bet: Teixeira in round one at 2.25.

Alternative Bet: Teixeira by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.57.

Stephen Thompson (4.00) v Gabriel Bonfim (1.22) (Welterweight)

The co-main event is a classic striker versus grappler matchup.

In Thompson (17-8-1), you have an elite striker who fights out of a karate stance, which is rarely seen inside the Octagon. “Wonderboy” was once one of the toughest puzzles to solve and twice fought for the title against Tyron Woodley. That was ages ago, though.

Now 42, he’s lost the speed that made him so tough to deal with and has won just one of his last five fights, that victory coming over Kevin Holland in 2022. He’s coming off back-to-back stoppage losses, first being submitted by Shavkat Rakhmonov before being knocked out by Joaquin Buckley last October.

In Bonfim (17-1), you have a high-level grappler who’s like an Octopus on the ground. He has 13 submissions to his name, including three inside the Octagon. Most recently, “Marretinha” forced Khaos Williams to tap in February and he now gets his first high-profile opponent in No. 12-ranked Thompson.

Without the speed and lightness on his feet that he had in his prime, Thompson will struggle to keep this fight on the feet and at range where he needs it to be. Bonfim is a full 15 years younger than his veteran foe and has the strength, explosiveness and grappling wizardry to make Thompson tap out. 

Prediction: Bonfim by submission.

Best Bet: Bonfim by submission at 2.50.

Alternative Bet: Bonfim by decision at 2.75.

Calvin Kattar (2.00) v Steve Garcia (1.76) (Featherweight)

Featherweight strikers on contrasting trajectories collide in the featured bout.

Once looking like a possible future title contender, Kattar (23-9) hasn’t been the same since the hiding he got from the great Max Holloway in 2021.

Since then, he has only won one fight, finds himself on a four-fight losing streak, and has fallen out of the top 10. The last time we saw him in action was when Youssef Zalaal outpointed him in February. 

At his best, “The Boston Finisher” is a high-level boxer but hasn’t evolved beyond that, which has seen the sport pass him by. At 36, he has lost speed, both when it comes to speed of movement and hand speed, and is firmly in a downward spiral.

Garcia (17-5), in contrast, is on a five-fight win streak, with all five victories coming by knockout. On a roll of note, there appears to be no slowing down the man known as “Mean Machine.” A former lightweight, he carries massive power at 145 pounds but No. 14-ranked Kattar is nothing if not durable. 

Momentum is very much in Garcia’s favour and while Kattar is a step up in competition for him, his three-inch reach advantage should help him continue his winning ways.

Prediction: Garcia by decision.

Best Bet: Garcia at 1.76. 

Alternative Bet: Garcia by decision at 4.00.

Nate Landwehr (3.20) v Morgan Charriere (1.33) (Featherweight)

Expect an all-out war in this scrap, which has Fight of the Night written all over it.

Landwehr (18-6) likes nothing more than to stand and bang. He’s a wild man who truly lives and dies by the sword. “The Train” has run over his fair share of opponents and he’s also been derailed half a dozen times, including by DooHo Choi last time out. He’s never in a boring fight, though, and will be especially fired up fighting in front of his home crowd.

In Charriere (20-11-1), he has a willing dance partner with a dozen knockouts to his name. “The Last Pirate” has been inconsistent in the UFC, splitting his four fights in the world’s leading mixed martial arts promotion down the middle.

The Frenchman might have more fight experience than Landwehr overall, but Landwehr has sustained much more damage. That’s the key difference between these two – Charriere is much more defensively responsible and with Landwehr set to be super hyped up, he’ll likely leave even more openings than usual for Charriere to capitalise on.

Prediction: Charriere by decision.

Best Bet: Charriere by decision at 2.30.

Alternative Bet: Charriere by KO/TKO/DQ 3.25.

Vitor Petrino (1.16) v Austen Lane (5.00) (Heavyweight)

A knockout is in the cards for Petrino (11-2) as he lines up former NFL star Lane (13-6-1NC) in his heavyweight debut.

A dynamic athlete, Petrino won four straight to start his UFC career and improve to 11-0 overall as a light heavyweight. However, successive stoppage losses have seen “Icão” re-evaluate things and make the move up to heavyweight.

A former defensive lineman in the NFL, Lane is a big boy who can crack but he’s very limited as a mixed martial artist. He’s struggled in the UFC, with his knockout loss against Mario Pinto last time out taking his Octagon record to 1-3 and one no-contest.

At 27, Petrino is a decade younger than his opponent and his speed, coupled with Lane’s obvious limitations, will see the Brazilian deliver as the biggest favourite on the main card.

Prediction: Petrino by knockout.

Best Bet: Petrino by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.40.

Junior Tafa (1.55) v Tuco Tokkos (2.40) (Light Heavyweight)

Whereas Petrino leaves the 205-pound ranks in a move up to heavyweight, Tafa (6-3) is going in the opposite direction, dropping down to light heavyweight, where he’ll open the main card against Tokkos (10-5).

Though he knocked out Sean Sharaf in his last fight, the win took his UFC record to just 2-3 and the move to light heavyweight seems like the right decision. “The Juggernaut” has a 100% finishing rate and has drawn a favourite foe.