UFC Fight Night: De Ridder v Allen Predictions

Mike Malott headlines the Canadian contingent of fighters, which includes Aiemann Zahabi, Jasmine Jasudavicius and Kyle Nelson, who’ll showcase their skills on the main card.

Malott meets Kevin Holland in a welterweight co-headliner, Zahabi faces former bantamweight title challenger Marlon Vera, Jasudavicius takes on fellow top-five flyweight Manon Fiorot, and Nelson knuckles up against Matt Frevola at lightweight. Plus, Cody Gibson and Aoriqileng battle it out at bantamweight.

Reinier de Ridder (1.48) v Brendan Allen (2.62) (Middleweight)

MAIN CARD:
When: Sunday, October 19, 1 AM SAST

There’s a new champion in the talent-rich middleweight division in Khamzat Chimaev, who dethroned South Africa’s Dricus du Plessis in August. The sharks are circling the Chechen boogeyman, and this weekend’s headliners are two of the biggest and baddest around.

It took De Ridder (21-2) some time to make it to the UFC, but the former two-division champion in ONE Championship has shown it’s where he always belonged. “The Dutch Knight” has taken the world’s leading mixed martial arts promotion by storm and is unbeaten inside the Octagon.

Making up for lost time, he’ll be making his fifth UFC appearance in less than a year and is coming off the biggest win of his career, a split decision victory over ex-champion and one of the all-time greats at 185 pounds, Robert Whittaker, in July.

A grappling wizard, he won all three of his previous UFC fights by finish, tapping out Gerald Meerschaert and Kevin Holland, which took his submission victories tally to 13, and bouncing Bo Nickal from the ranks of the unbeaten by stopping the wrestling phenom by TKO.

The red-hot De Ridder, ranked fourth, was initially set to face Anthony Hernandez, but Allen (25-7) has stepped up to replace the injured “Fluffy”, leaving us with a good scrap despite the shake-up.

A four-year UFC veteran, Allen is fresh off a decision win over former title challenger Marvin Vettori at UFC 318, which snapped a two-fight losing skid.

A gifted grappler with 14 submissions to his name, “All In” was on a seven-fight win streak not that long ago and is currently ranked ninth. He usually has a good gas tank as well, but as a short-notice replacement, he won’t be in peak condition.

Add the fact that De Ridder is slightly superior both on the feet and on the ground, and he should continue his winning ways.

Prediction: De Ridder by decision.

Best Bet: De Ridder at 1.48.

Alternative Bet: De Ridder by decision at 4.33 or by submission at 2.87.

Kevin Holland (1.93) v Mike Malott (1.85) (Welterweight)

The co-main event is a captivating clash of welterweight finishers.

Holland (28-14) is a fighter’s fighter, down for a scrap against anyone at middleweight or welterweight. He’s an entertainer, a showman, and one of the funnest fighters in the world to watch due to his all-action style, killer instinct and habit of talking to his foe mid-fight. 

“Trailblazer” is equally good on the feet and on the ground. His well-roundedness and aggression have earned him 14 knockouts and nine submissions, with Anthony Hernandez, Joaquin Buckley and the legendary Jacare Souza among the men he’s finished.

Ranked at No. 15, the American is 2-1 in his fights at welterweight this year and is looking to bounce back from a decision loss to Daniel Rodriguez in July.

The uber-athletic Malott (12-2-1) has been touted as the next big thing to come out of Canada since he entered the UFC in 2023. A huge upset loss to veteran Neil Magny at the start of last year quieted some of the hype, but “Proper” has responded well with back-to-back wins over Trevin Giles and Charles Radtke.

Like Holland, Malott is a hunter and has earned finishes in all but one of his wins (five knockouts and six submissions). While he’s the better pure athlete, Holland is tall and lanky like Magny, which will see him enjoy a two-inch height and a massive eight-inch reach advantage.

Couple that with his vast experience and Holland should rain on his opponent’s parade.

Prediction: Holland by stoppage.

Best Bet: Holland at 1.98.

Alternative Bet: Holland by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 2.90.

Manon Fiorot (1.42) v Jasmine Jasudavicius (2.80) (Flyweight)

Members of the flyweight top five face off in this intriguing tussle.

Having established herself as the best of the rest, Fiorot (12-2) looked to become the first French fighter to win an undisputed UFC title but ended up on the wrong side of the scorecards against Valentina Shevchenko in May.

The loss against the flyweight queen was the first of her UFC career, and “The Beast” is hell-bent on bouncing back at the expense of a local favourite. For those unfamiliar with second-ranked Fiorot, who first made a name for herself in the EFC in South Africa, her nickname is misleading in the sense that she’s not a finisher, but rather, a proficient point-fighter.

Canada’s Jasudavicius (14-3) has carved out a five-fight win streak. A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, she shines in the grappling department and most recently submitted former strawweight champion Jessica Andrade in May.

Ranked fifth, she effectively mixes striking with grappling, but against a southpaw sharpshooter like Fiorot, she’ll likely be relentless in trying to take the fight to the ground. 

Canada's own Jasmine Jasudavicius made easy work of Jessica Andrade, submitting the former strawweight queen via #RNC in round 1! 👏👏👏 #UFC315 #Wow #Top5 pic.twitter.com/MqqIaxI5UQ

— Superbeast MMA (@Superbeast_MMA) May 11, 2025

Jasudavicius is 4-0 in Canada, but that streak will end this weekend with Fiorot set to use her superior striking and distance management to chip away on the outside.

Prediction: Fiorot by decision.

Best Bet: Fiorot by decision at 1.72.

Cody Gibson (1.50) v Aoriqileng (2.50) (Bantamweight)

This one is a battle of bantamweight veterans in need of a win.

Gibson (21-1), who finished as the runner-up on season 31 of The Ultimate Fighter in 2023, closed out last year with consecutive wins but was submitted by Da’Mon Blackshear in March, leaving him having to start from scratch.

Aoriqileng (25-12) is looking to kill two birds with one stone. “The Mongolian Murderer” is out to exorcise the demons of his last business trip to Vancouver in 2023, which saw him getting knocked out by Aiemann Zahabi in short order, and pick up his first win in over two years.

This is a good match-up and there’s a case to be made for both men. However, Gibson (21-1), as a solid stand-up fighter and wrestler, has more tools at his disposal than his opponent, who’s primarily a striker, giving “The Renegade” what should be a decisive edge.

Prediction: Gibson by decision.

Best Bet: Gibson at 1.50.

Alternative Bet: Gibson by decision at 2.30.

Kyle Nelson (1.95) v Matt Frevola (1.83) (Lightweight)

The main card opener promises to be a thrilling fire-fight.

For Canada’s Nelson (16-6-1), it’s a back-to-the-future moment as he moves back up to lightweight after competing at featherweight in eight of his last nine fights.

It’s an interesting decision given that “The Monster” was on a three-fight win streak before his TKO loss to Steve Garcia last time out. Also, he was unsuccessful in both of his UFC bouts at lightweight, losing to Diego Ferreira in his promotional debut in 2018 and to Jai Herbert in 2022.

A brawler who loves to stand and bang, Frevola (11-5-1) found himself in the top 15 after three straight finishes. However, he went from hammer to nail and dropped out of the rankings following back-to-back stoppage losses.

“The Steamrolla” wisely took some time away and returns for the first time in over a year looking to get things back on track. 

This is another good piece of matchmaking. Nelson will be a handful with the crowd on his side, but does he have what it takes to be successful at lightweight? Frevola is the proven commodity at 155 pounds and, therefore, has my backing.

Prediction: Frevola by knockout.

Best Bet: Frevola at 1.83.

Alternative Bet: Frevola by KO/TKO/DQ at 3.20.