UFC Fight Night: Bonfim v Brown Predictions

The co-headliner is a clash of top-10 heavyweights, with Waldo Cortes-Acosta taking on Ante Delija.

All-action flyweights feature in the co-headliner as Matt Schnell squares off with Joseph Morales, while welterweight strikers Muslim Salikhov and Uros Medic meet in the featured bout.

Plus, Chris Padilla and Ismael Bonfim lock horns at lightweight, Ricky Simon and Raoni Barcelos brawl at bantamweight, and Christian Leroy Duncan and Marco Tulio tussle at middleweight.

MAIN CARD:

When: Sunday, November 9, 2 AM SAST

Gabriel Bonfim (1.50) v Randy Brown (2.55) (Welterweight)

This weekend’s main event is a fascinating fight in the welterweight division.

Bonfim (18-1) is a young, rising star, whereas Brown (20-6) is a wily veteran. On top of that, it’s a clash of styles with Bonfim being a high-level grappler and Brown being a crafty striker.

With this being both men’s maiden UFC main event, they’re sure to leave everything inside the Octagon, setting the scene for a compelling clash.

Bonfim is 5-1 since debuting in the UFC in 2023, with three of his wins coming by submission. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt has 13 tapout victories to his name overall and is coming off the biggest triumph of his career, a split decision win over former title challenger Stephen Thompson in July.

The 28-year-old, who’s ranked 14th, thrives on pressure, stalking opponents with confidence, cutting off angles, and throwing combinations, which mask his takedowns and also sometimes force panic shots that open the door for submissions, particularly, his patented guillotine choke.

Given Brown is a veteran who’s been in the UFC for nearly a full decade, he likely won’t be tricked into dangerous grappling exchanges easily. Certainly, he won’t initiate them. Instead, he’ll look to stick to his strengths, which are using his 6’3” frame and 78-inch reach to manage distance.

The unranked 35-year-old has won four of his past five fights and is riding the momentum of his knockout win over Nicolas Dalby in April. “Rude Boy”, who’s 14-6 overall in the UFC, will have a five-and-a-half-inch reach advantage, but a key factor to consider is the fact that the fight is taking place at the UFC APEX.

The smaller Octagon at the organisation’s Las Vegas venue generally favours grapplers like Bonfim as it restricts movement. Add to that “Marretinha” being the younger, faster and more explosive fighter and he should be able to dictate how the fight plays out and eventually sink in a fight-finishing submission.

Prediction: Bonfim by submission.

Best Bet: Bonfim by submission at 2.60.

Alternative Bets: Bonfim by decision at 6.00 or outright at 1.50.

Matt Schnell (3.40) v Joseph Morales (1.30) (Flyweight)

The co-main eventers’ journeys to this weekend’s collision are quite something.

Schnell (17-9) retired last September after losing to Cody Durden. However, the fire still burned within and he returned in April, beating Jimmy Flick by decision to snap a three-fight losing streak and start fresh.

Meanwhile, Morales (13-2) has scratched and clawed his way back to the UFC.

The ultra-determined “Bopo” submitted Alibi Idiris to win the flyweight tournament on Season 33 of The Ultimate Fighter in August to reclaim his place on the roster.

He’s now won four fights in a row since initially parting ways with the promotion seven years ago, and is older, wiser and better in all facets this time around.

JOSEPH MORALES!!!!!!!!

The +400 underdog comes through to win TUF 33 by submission.

pic.twitter.com/JDzezuwq24

— Spinnin Backfist (@SpinninBackfist) August 16, 2025

As his nickname tells you, “Danger” is not one to take lightly, but Morales has serious momentum and superior grappling, which should see him seal the deal by submission.

Prediction: Morales by submission.

Best Bet: Morales by submission at 2.60.

Alternative Bet: Morales by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 1.66.

Muslim Salikhov (2.37) v Uros Medic (1.57) (Welterweight)

Who will be the last man standing? That’s the big question when it comes to what should be a thrilling featured bout between high-level strikers.

Salikhov (22-5) is an anomaly. At 41, “The King of Kung Fu” is still kicking ass and enters this encounter on a three-fight win streak that includes back-to-back knockouts, which took his KO tally to 15.

The younger man by nine years, Medic (11-3) has been consistently inconsistent, alternating wins and losses in his last five fights.

“The Doctor” is a dangerous man, though, and has claimed nine of his 11 wins by knockout, including his victory over Gilbert Urbina in August.

When it comes to Salikhov, age seems to be just a number. Though not as fast as he once was, he’s still sharp and super crafty, making him an appealing underdog pick.

Prediction: Salikhov by knockout.

Best Bet: Salikhov by KO/TKO/DQ at 3.10.

Alternative Bet: Salikhov at 2.37.

Chris Padilla (2.70) v Ismael Bonfim (1.45) (Lightweight)

Like Salikhov, Padilla (16-6) is too good an underdog to pass on.

Despite being on a six-fight win streak, including three straight victories to start his UFC tenure, “Taco” seems to be flying under the radar. He’s well-rounded and has quite a big frame for a lightweight, which will see him enjoy a two-and-a-half-inch reach advantage.

Bonfim (20-5) is good on the feet and the ground as well, but is struggling to put things together in the UFC. His last performance highlighted this, as he was in the driver’s seat until he got caught by a punch from Nazim Sadykhov that led to a doctor stoppage.

Bonfim is 2-2 in the promotion and 1-1 when fighting on the same card as his headlining brother. In such an evenly-matched fight, the value is on the underdog, especially given his momentum.

Prediction: Padilla by decision.

Best Bet: Padilla at 2.70.

Alternative Bet: Padilla by decision at 6.00.

Ricky Simon (1.55) v Raoni Barcelos (2.40) (Bantamweight)

Bantamweight stalwarts firing on all cylinders collide in this one.

Simon (22-6) harbours hopes of returning to the top 15 and has been climbing the ladder well with back-to-back wins over Javid Basharat and Cameron Smotherman this year.

The American is a solid all-rounder with an endless gas tank. He stays in an opponent’s face throughout the fight and keeps his foe both working and guessing with a non-stop mix of striking, wrestling and grappling.

Barcelos (20-5) is having a year to savour. He ended much-hyped rising star Payton Talbott’s undefeated streak in January and beat former champion Cody Garbrandt in June.

The Brazilian, who has won three on the trot overall, is a high-volume striker and even though he’s a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, he’ll look to keep the fight standing.

Ultimately, the younger Simon’s pace, stamina, chain wrestling and heavy top game should see him cap off an unbeaten 2025 campaign.

Prediction: Simon by decision.

Best Bet: Simon by decision at 2.25.

Alternative Bet: Simon at 1.55.

Christian Leroy Duncan (2.55) v Marco Tulio (1.50) (Middleweight)

Be sure you have your snacks and beverages at hand so that you don’t miss a minute of the action in the main card opener.

Duncan (12-2) has gotten things moving in the right direction again this year, bouncing back from a 2024 loss to Gregory Rodrigues with a decision win over Andrey Pulyaev in March before scoring a spectacular knockout victory over Eryk Anders in August.

The Brit faces a tough test in Tulio (14-1), who hasn’t lost since 2018. A venomous and versatile striker, he added Ihor Potieria and Tresean Gore to his list of knockout victims earlier this year to kick-start his UFC career and stretch his win streak to 10.

Both men are good strikers, but Tulio is on a tear and is more dialled in and dynamic. Thus, he should get the better of “CLD”.

Prediction: Tulio by knockout.

Best Bet: Tulio at 1.50.

Alternative Bet: Tulio by KO/TKO/DQ at 3.50.