UFC 324: Gaethje v Pimblett Predictions

A second title fight was scheduled for the co-headliner. Kayla Harrison was set to defend her bantamweight belt against a returning Amanda Nunes in the biggest fight in women’s mixed martial arts history, but Harrison was forced to withdraw last week due to a neck injury that required surgery.

The high-stakes clash between former 135-pound champion Sean O’Malley and Song Yadong has been elevated to the co-main event, with top-10 heavyweights Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Derrick Lewis set to shake the Octagon in the featured bout.

Plus, Natalia Silva and the decorated Rose Namajunas face off in a pivotal flyweight fight, and elite featherweights Arnold Allen and Jean Silva will whip up a storm.

MAIN CARD:

When: Sunday, January 25, 4:00 AM SAST

Justin Gaethje (2.85) v Paddy Pimblett (1.42) (Interim Lightweight Championship)

One of the most exciting fighters ever and a superstar in the making have the honour of headlining the first event of the UFC’s $7.7 billion partnership with Paramount+ in the US.

With lightweight champion Ilia Topuria taking time off for personal reasons, veteran knockout artist Gaethje (26-5) and charismatic grappler Pimblett (23-3) will battle it out for the interim belt.

For Gaethje, it’s an opportunity to collect a third UFC title and put himself in position to achieve his ultimate goal, while for Pimblett, it’s a chance to secure his first piece of UFC silverware and set up a blockbuster grudge match against Topuria.

A future Hall of Famer, Gaethje won the interim 155-pound title with a fifth-round TKO of Tony Ferguson in the first major American sporting event since the Covid lockdown in 2021, before going on to be submitted by Khabib Nurmagomedov in their unification bout.

Two years later, he knocked out Dustin Poirier in spectacular fashion to win the BMF belt, a special addition to his collection, but his main goal has always been to become an undisputed UFC champion.

After landing on the wrong side of the greatest knockout in UFC history in his BMF title loss to Max Holloway, Gaethje showed there’s still gas left in him as he bounced back with a decision win over Rafael Fiziev last March, earning him this golden opportunity.

At 37, this is a must-win fight for Gaethje, who’s confirmed that this is his last run.

A man with bazookas for arms, the American walks opponents down like something out of a horror movie, and his one-punch knockout power is legendary.

“The Highlight” is known for his jaw-dropping displays of violence, which have earned him 20 knockouts, and is an entertainer of the brutal variety.

Wild and aggressive to a fault earlier in his career, he has matured over the last couple of years. He’s still as lethal as ever but is now using sounder judgement, the sign of a seasoned scrapper.

One of England’s favourite fighting sons, Pimblett was initially seen as an overhyped prospect by experts, but he’s a perfect 7-0 in the UFC.

“The Baddy” is a young and popular fighter who transcends mixed martial arts due to his Beatles-like look, charisma and social media presence.

Bar a fortuitous decision win over Jared Gordon, he’s proved doubters wrong with every Octagon outing. After a couple of victories over lower-level competition, he beat the legendary Ferguson and put respected veteran King Green to sleep with a triangle choke.

However, it wasn’t until his last fight that Pimblett proved he’s the real deal as he pummelled Michael Chandler, the former face of Bellator and mainstay in the lightweight elite, last April. On a nine-fight win streak overall, he now faces the toughest test of his career in a thrilling clash of styles. 

As the younger fighter with tons of momentum, the 31-year-old Brit is the favourite to claim the interim belt. While his striking is ever-improving, it’s his world-class grappling – which has earned him 10 wins by submission – that’s his biggest strength.

Gaethje has excellent wrestling, which he never uses offensively, but makes him incredibly tough to take down. Only two of the greatest-ever at lightweight, Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira, have outgrappled and submitted Gaethje, and Pimblett is not nearly at their level.

Thus, Gaethje should earn himself valuable time on the feet, where he has a clear advantage, making him an underdog well worth backing. 

Prediction: Gaethje by knockout.

Best Bet: Gaethje at 2.85.

Alternative Bet: Gaethje by KO/TKO/DQ at 5.25.

Sean O’Malley (1.48) v Song Yadong (2.62) (Bantamweight)

It’s funny how things can change.

As the end of 2025 neared, O’Malley (18-3) found himself out of the championship conversation, having been dethroned by Merab Dvalishvili and submitted by “The Machine” in the rematch in June.

The back-to-back defeats to the champion meant that, despite his No. 3 ranking, O’Malley would have to put in serious work to earn another title opportunity. Then, in December, the unthinkable happened.

Petr Yan produced a masterclass to upset Dvalishvili, ending the Georgian juggernaut’s 14-fight win streak. Yan wasn’t the only winner that night; O’Malley was as well, as the result instantly brought him back into the title picture.  

With Dvalishvili having previously beaten Yan, their series is now tied at 1-1 and a trilogy fight makes sense. However, O’Malley also has history with Yan. He edged “No Mercy” by split decision in a 2022 bout many thought he’d lost.

Given the controversial result, his star power, fan-friendly style and the fact that he’s an American, “Suga” could earn a title shot at the historic White House event if he sees off Song (22-8-1) this weekend.

That will be no easy feat, but at least O’Malley won’t have to worry about grappling this time around, as Song is a fellow striker. Fifth-ranked Song has won three of his last four fights, including a victory over Hall of Famer Henry Cejudo in his only fight of 2025 in February.

“Kung Fu Kid” is swift and smart on the feet; he uses his speed and fight IQ to do damage and competes at a high pace. He’s probably the harder hitter, but O’Malley has shown throughout his career that precision is just as lethal, if not more so, than power.

In what promises to be a high-octane, elite-level stand-up battle, the sharpshooting O’Malley should come away with the win.

Prediction: O’Malley by decision.

Best Bet: O’Malley by decision at 2.15.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta (1.28) v Derrick Lewis (3.55) (Heavyweight)

Known as “Salsa Boy”, Cortes-Acosta (16-2) will be dancing with danger in the featured bout.

His opponent is no ordinary heavyweight. Feared by foes and beloved by fans, Lewis (29-12) is the UFC’s all-time knockout king. “The Black Beast” has put down 16 opponents inside the Octagon, 10 in the first round, including Tallison Teixeira, who he bounced from the ranks of the unbeaten in just 35 seconds last time out. Overall, he has 24 wins by KO.

Despite being a former two-time title challenger and having wins over former champion Francis Ngannou and top contenders such as Curtis Blaydes and Alexander Volkov, he’s a perennial underdog as he’s an old school brawler in the modern world of mixed martial arts.

Whereas Lewis is a veteran and a staple in the heavyweight elite nearing the end of his career, Cortes-Acosta is a hungry rising star seeking gold. That desire was evident last year as it drove him to fight no less than five times, winning four of those bouts.

A fresh face in the heavyweight top 10, he’s coming off knockout victories over Ante Delija and Shamil Gaziev and is eyeing the biggest win of his career. The 34-year-old is not exceptionally fast or athletic, but certainly has better movement than Lewis.

🚨 Waldo Cortes Acosta, Shamil Gaziev’i böyle bitirdi! pic.twitter.com/zzGOidu5J5

— Kırmızı Köşe (@KirmiziKoseMMA) November 22, 2025

That said, Lewis has scored so many stunning upsets and even at 40, he continues to defy the odds. With his track record and unrivalled finishing ability, I’ll be backing “The Black Beast” to roar once more.

Prediction: Lewis by knockout.

Best Bet: Lewis by KO/TKO/DQ at 4.50.

Alternative Bet: Lewis at 3.55.

Natalia Silva (1.22) v Rose Namajunas (4.20) (Flyweight)

A surging Silva (19-5-1) has the look of a future champion and can almost taste her maiden title shot.

The Brazilian is a flawless 7-0 in the UFC and on a 13-fight win streak overall, which includes victories over former champions Jessica Andrade and Alexa Grasso in her last two Octagon appearances.

If the 28-year-old is able to knock off a third ex-titleholder in a row in Namajunas (14-7) this weekend, you’d have to think she’d be next in line to challenge flyweight queen Valentina Shevchenko.

That Namajunas, a former two-time strawweight champion and future first-ballot Hall of Famer, is the biggest underdog on the main card isn’t because of a significant drop off by “Thug” but rather due to the remarkable run Silva is on.

At 33, Namajunas is no longer in her prime, but she’s by no means finished, either. Still determined to conquer a second division, she defeated Miranda Maverick in June to rebound from a loss to top contender Erin Blanchfield and is 3-2 at flyweight.

Namajunas is a tough out for anyone, but with the roll Silva is on, all signs point to her getting her hand raised.

Prediction: Silva by decision.

Best Bet: Silva by decision at 1.50.

Arnold Allen (3.00) v Jean Silva (1.38) (Featherweight)

Expect the main card to get off to a fast and violent start in this clash of elite featherweights.

If you want an example of just how cutthroat the fight business is, then look no further than Allen (20-3) and the predicament he finds himself in.

Out of action for almost 18 months, the English ace’s ‘welcome back’ present is a bout with one of the most savage fighters in all of the UFC.

Allen snapped a two-fight losing streak with a welcome win over Giga Chikadze the last time we saw him in July 2024 and is keen to carry on where he left off. However, “Almighty” has a massive task in front of him.

In Allen’s absence, Silva (16-3) became a star. The unhinged Brazilian began his UFC career with five straight stoppage wins to earn a pay-per-view main event showdown with Diego Lopes last September.

“Lord” had his moments but was overaggressive and paid the price for it. This is a great opportunity for him to return to winning ways and he should do exactly that as he’s coiled like a viper and ready to strike against a potentially rusty foe.

Prediction: Silva by stoppage.

Best Bet: Silva by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 2.20.

Alternative Bet: Under 2.5 rounds at 2.00.