UFC 319: Du Plessis v Chimaev Predictions

Aaron Pico will make his much-anticipated promotional debut against unbeaten featherweight contender Lerone Murphy in the co-headliner, while welterweight knockout artists Geoff Neal and Carlos Prates will bang it out in the featured bout.

Plus, former middleweight title challenger Jared Cannonier clashes with Michael Page, and top flyweights Tim Elliott and Kai Asakura collide.

MAIN CARD:                                                                                             

When: Sunday, August 17, 4 AM SAST

Dricus du Plessis (2.95) v Khamzat Chimaev (1.38) (Middleweight Championship)

It’s one of the biggest fights of the year, a duel between two destructive forces, and a scrap between two savages who’ve ripped everyone they’ve been locked inside the Octagon with to shreds. It’s a war for the middleweight championship of the world, pitting South African grit against Chechen power.

The two most dangerous 185-pounders on the planet are malicious marauders. They’re not built to finesse and outpoint an opponent, but rather, to seek and destroy. Their mission is to break the man across from them, both physically and mentally, and after running through the best of the rest, these two apex predators will finally face off in a colossal and chaotic clash in Chi-Town.

Du Plessis is a perfect 9-0 inside the Octagon, marching to the top of the mountain and putting South Africa on the mixed martial arts map as the country’s first UFC champion. A tank of a man, “Stillknocks” has successfully defended the title twice, against Hall of Famer Israel Adesanya, and most recently, against the man he beat for the gold, Sean Strickland, in their rematch in February.

The baddest man in Mzansi made a statement in both of those title defences, as he became the first man to submit “The Last Stylebender” – a former two-time champion – and beat Strickland from pillar to post, silencing the outspoken American and leaving him with a broken nose to put their rivalry to bed.

Whereas many fear the unbeaten “Borz”, Du Plessis has long called for a fight against him. The fighting pride of South Africa refuses to take a backward step and will take the fight to the Chechen anomaly, so this promises to be an absolute war for as long as it lasts.

Du Plessis’ unorthodox style and unbreakable will have made him a punishing puzzle no one has been able to solve inside the Octagon. Overall, his record stands at 23-2 with 20 finishes (nine knockouts and 11 submissions). He’s awkward yet highly effective on the feet, has powerful takedowns, and is a monster on the mat.

Boasting a flawless record of 14-0 with 12 finishes (six knockouts and six submissions), Chimaev is an absolute beast and earned his title shot by crushing former champion Robert Whittaker’s jaw with one of the nastiest face cranks in UFC history last October.

His grappling is damn-near superhuman. His power and explosiveness are second to none, making him a nightmare to deal with. Add the fact that he’s fuelled by animalistic rage, and Chimaev is arguably the best and most-feared first-round fighter to ever roam inside the Octagon.  

His strength, technique, and relentlessness are overwhelming and enable him to pin an opponent to the fence, take him down, and either ground-and-pound or submit him. He’s an all gas, no brakes bat out of hell who’s mauled just about everyone he’s faced.

However, his epic war with Gilbert Burns in 2022 and battle against former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman in 2023 showed that he was human after all and that he tires significantly if one can survive the opening round. Both of those bouts were three-rounders, and he barely made it to the final bell to win on the scorecards.

This weekend’s title tilt is scheduled for five rounds, and he’ll be in there with a big, strong, cardio machine in Du Plessis, who proved in the Strickland fights that he can go a full, hard 25 minutes. Thus, there are two likely possible outcomes – Chimaev by first-round finish, or Du Plessis by late stoppage.   

Du Plessis is a tough man to take down, but even if Chimaev does get him to the ground, I feel the champion has the composure and jiu-jitsu skills to survive and get back to his feet. I see the South African superstar weathering the early storm and weaponizing his cardio to break Chimaev’s will and bounce him from the ranks of the unbeaten.

Prediction: Du Plessis by stoppage.
Best Bet: Du Plessis by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 4.50.

Alternative Bets: Du Plessis by submission at 10.00, Du Plessis by KO/TKO/DQ at 7.00, or Du Plessis at 2.85.

Lerone Murphy (2.55) v Aaron Pico (1.50) (Featherweight)

The co-main event sees the long-awaited arrival of Pico (13-4) in the UFC. A stand-out wrestler with vicious knockout power for a featherweight, he looks to shake up the division by doing something no man has done before – beat his British adversary.

A former Bellator standout, Pico has fast and heavy hands that have earned him nine wins by knockout. On a three-fight win streak (and 9-1 in his last 10), the 28-year-old’s exciting style is tailor-made for the Octagon, and he gets an opportunity to propel himself straight into the title picture.

Stepping in for Movsar Evloev on short notice, Murphy (16-0-1) is undefeated in his 17-fight career and outworked Josh Emmett over five rounds in April to advance his title aspirations.

Ranked sixth, “The Miracle” is a talented striker with seven knockouts to his credit. Full of intestinal fortitude, which helped him survive and recover from a shooting in 2013, the 33-year-old is adept at reading opponents and adjusting accordingly.

Pico has a ton of hype behind him and is the real deal, but I’m surprised that he’s the favourite. Many stars from other organisations have fallen victim to Octagon jitters in their promotion debuts over the years, and while it remains to be seen if Pico will be rattled by the occasion, Murphy is a tricky customer who doesn’t know how to lose.

With his crisp striking and technical nous, Murphy is a good underdog bet.

Prediction: Murphy by decision.

Best Bet: Murphy at 2.55.

Alternative Bet: Murphy by decision at 3.40.

Geoff Neal (2.95) v Carlos Prates (1.38) (Welterweight)

Odds are the judges won’t be needed when these two fierce welterweight finishers face off in the featured bout.

A staple in the 170-pound top 15, No. 11-ranked Neal (16-6) is a cagey veteran who can crack. A compact boxer with 12 finishes (10 knockouts and two submissions), “Handz of Steel” is a handful for anyone in the division, as he showed in his competitive outings against the undefeated Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Machado Garry.

Last time out, the 34-year-old had a quick night when his bout with Rafael dos Anjos was cut short after the former lightweight champion suffered a knee injury, so Neal is relishing the prospect of getting stuck into a proper scrap.

That’s exactly what he’s going to get from No. 12-ranked Prates (21-7), a predatory fighter with 19 finishes (16 knockouts and three submissions). The Brazilian burst onto the scene in spectacular fashion, winning each of his first four Octagon outings by stoppage, before having his 11-fight win streak halted by Machado Garry in April. 

Known as “The Nightmare”, he’s a high-level and lethal Muay Thai practitioner, whose unpredictability, superior athleticism, and three-inch reach advantage should see him return to winning ways with a bang.

Prediction: Prates by knockout.

Best Bet: Prates by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.10.

Alternative Bet: Under 2.5 rounds at 1.65.

Jared Cannonier (2.55) v Michael Page (1.48) (Middleweight)

Power meets pace in this compelling clash of elite middleweights.

A perennial top contender, Cannonier (18-8) showed he still has gas in his tank, fire in his belly, and dynamite in his hands when he stopped Gregory Rodrigues in February to preserve his place in the top 10.

Ranked ninth, “The Killa Gorilla” challenged Adesanya for the title in 2022, losing a decision, and hasn’t given up on his dream of securing UFC gold. At 41, though, every fight is a must-win for the veteran, who’ll be making his 20th walk to the Octagon.

Page (23-3) might only have three fights in the UFC, but he’s no rookie. A flashy striker with an internet-breaking highlight reel, the Brit was one of Bellator’s best before he touched down in the UFC, and is 2-1 in the world’s leading mixed martial arts promotion.

Fast and elusive, “Venom” normally competes at welterweight but moved up to middleweight in February and made a splash in his divisional debut by handing Shara Magomedov his first loss. Now he has a shot at shooting into the top 10 by taking out a 185-pound stalwart.

Page is incredibly light on his feet and both frustrates opponents and scores with his rather unique blitzing style. Cannonier would’ve had a better chance of catching him with a bomb a few years ago, but at this stage of his career, he looks set to be outpointed. 

Prediction: Page by decision.

Best Bet: Page by decision at 2.00.

Alternative Bet: Page at 1.48.

Tim Elliott (3.35) v Kai Asakura (1.30) (Flyweight)

Asakura (21-5) will aim to establish himself as a force to be reckoned with inside the Octagon in the main card opener.

A terror out of Tokyo, he was just the third fighter in the modern era to receive a title shot in his UFC debut last December. Unfortunately for the former two-time RIZIN bantamweight champion, things didn’t go his way as he was submitted by flyweight king Alexandre Pantoja.

A potent predator with a championship pedigree, he boasts 16 finishes, 13 of which are knockouts, and holds notable wins over current top-10 UFC flyweight contender Manel Kape and former UFC flyweight title challenger Kyoji Horiguchi.

Elliott (20-13-1) brings a wealth of UFC experience into the encounter. He joined the promotion in 2012 and challenged one of the all-time greats, Demetrious Johnson, for the title in 2016, falling short by decision. 

At 38, his best days may be behind him, but he is 3-1 in his last four fights. Worryingly for the veteran, though, he hasn’t fought since submitting Sumudaerji in December 2023.

Given Asakura’s speed and Elliot’s inactivity, the Japanese star is poised to pick up the win in style.

Prediction: Asakura by knockout.

Best Bet: Asakura by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.75.

Alternative Bet: Under 2.5 rounds at 2.05.