Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 5

Round Five of the Rugby Championship will kick off earlier in the day in Auckland, where the All Blacks have their unprecedented Eden Park record to protect against the Wallabies.

With only two points separating the first-placed Wallabies, on 11 log points, and the last-placed Pumas (on nine points), while the second-placed Springboks and third-placed All Blacks are level on 10 points, every point matters in the final two rounds of the Southern Hemisphere showpiece.

New Zealand v Australia

Saturday, 27 September – 07:05

The All Blacks are hurting after their worst-ever defeat in the previous round, and the whole of New Zealand is demanding a response from them in the Bledisloe Cup opener. The Wallabies are coming off a home loss as well, but the pressure is squarely on the Kiwis to redeem themselves.

The All Blacks have been doing a lot of soul searching since their 43-10 hiding by the Boks in Wellington and are as vulnerable as they’ve ever been, with the Wallabies sensing an opportunity to clinch the Bledisloe Cup for the first time since 2002.

Having said that, New Zealand’s 24-17 win over the Boks in Round Three showed once again that they’re a different team at their fortress, where they’re undefeated in 51 Tests dating back 31 years. The Wallabies haven’t won there since a 22-9 victory in 1986 and haven’t beaten their trans-Tasman rivals anywhere since the 24-22 win in Brisbane in 2020.

The gritty Australians are in with a shout, but I sense a backlash is coming from the Kiwis.

Prediction: New Zealand by 10.
Suggested Bet: Australia +12 at 1.90.

South Africa v Argentina

Saturday, 27 September – 17:10

The Boks are on a high following their record 33-point win in Wellington, but they are fully aware of how dangerous the Pumas are and how quickly they can bring them back down to earth.

Kings Park also isn’t the best hunting ground for the men in Green and Gold. They lost their last Test there to Ireland (25-24) last year, suffered their biggest defeat on South African soil there against the All Blacks (57-15) in 2016, and lost 37-25 to the Pumas there in 2015.

They did win the last two matches against Argentina in Durban, triumphing 34-21 in 2018 and 38-21 in 2022, but the Pumas will perhaps be the happier of the two teams that the game will be played at Kings Park rather than at one of the Boks’ more favoured venues.

Indeed, Durban – with its humidity – is a difficult place to play rugby. Balance is the key, and fortunately for the Boks, they’re coming off their most balanced performance of the year. It was a perfect blend of physicality, spreading the ball, and kicking that saw them put the All Blacks to the sword like never before, and they’ll look to replicate that on Saturday.

The Pumas are a fiery bunch, and they’ll relish the challenge of playing the world’s best team coming off one of their greatest-ever performances. Having claimed three big wins already this year, against the British & Irish Lions (28-24), the All Blacks (29-23), and the Wallabies (28-26) last time out, they’ll be a tricky test for the Boks.

However, Rassie Erasmus’ men are dialed in and should have too much firepower upfront and quality in the backline for the Argentinians.

Prediction: South Africa by 14.
Suggested Bet: Argentina +16 at 1.90.