Night of the Samurai: Inoue v Picasso Preview and Prediction

Naoya Inoue (1.03) v David Picasso (12.00) (Undisputed Super Bantamweight Championship)

1:30 AM Sunday SA time

Known as “The Monster,” the dominant champion has been insatiable in 2025.

A boxing serial killer, wins over Ye Joon Kim in January, Ramon Cardenas in May and Akhmadaliev in September wasn’t enough for Inoue, as he aims to claim one last victim for the year.

The last time he was this active was in 2013, when four impressive wins earned him a shot at the WBC junior flyweight crown. Fast forward 12 years, and Inoue is just as hungry, despite being a four-weight world champion.

It’s that drive, along with his prodigious pugilistic skills and power, that have ensured the Japanese superstar remains undefeated and at the pinnacle of the sport, alongside fellow pound-for-pound kings Terence Crawford and Oleksandr Usyk.

A diminutive destroyer, Inoue is a perfect 31-0 with 27 knockouts. Such is his dominance that it’s considered a minor victory for an opponent to go the distance with him. Akhmadaliev was the first man since Nonito Donaire in 2019 to avoid being knocked out by Inoue, snapping the 32-year-old’s 11-fight stoppage streak.

Picasso is the third unbeaten foe Inoue will face. Bar a technical draw against Martin Jimenez Delgado early in his career, the Mexican has won every one of his bouts and could give the Japanese legend trouble.

“El Rey”, whose record stands at 32-0-1 with 17 knockouts, defeated Inoue’s countryman Kyonosuke Kameda by majority decision in his only fight this year in July and has more than earned his shot at the title since making his pro debut in 2017.

With a three-inch height and reach advantage, the 25-year-old could be a tricky test for the champion.

So, can heavy underdog Picasso paint his masterpiece and shock the world? To have any chance at all, he’ll need to maximise his reach advantage by chipping away with his solid jab on the outside and bank a few early rounds.

The problem is that Inoue is a master of movement and angles. He’s adept at closing the distance, and don’t let his remarkable 87% knockout ratio fool you, he’s the furthest thing from reckless or overly aggressive.

While he possesses rare one-punch knockout power for a super bantamweight, he’s also a cerebral assassin. With his elite fight IQ, he’s able to download data faster than most in the first round and get a feel for what type of fight he’s in for.

If he determines patience will be required, he’s more than happy to initiate his special brand of slow poison, which centres on some of the best body work you’ll see in the sweet science.

This should be the case against the tactically astute and rangy Picasso, who might win an early round or two but is set to wilt under Inoue’s systematic breakdown in the second half of the 12-round clash.

Prediction: Inoue by knockout.

Best Bet: Check for the overs/unders closer to the fight and opt for over 8.5 rounds.