At the start of the tournament, most betting markets backed France, Spain, Argentina, England, Brazil, Portugal, Germany, and the Netherlands as the strongest title contenders. However, by the quarter-final, most of those backed teams were already home. Here’s a look at the biggest favourites who failed to make the 2026 World Cup final.
Brazil: Painful Early Exit
Brazil arrived in North America with renewed confidence after rebuilding under a younger generation of stars and new coach Carlo Ancelotti. Despite not being among the top four betting favourites, by the semi-finals, they were still widely considered genuine title challengers. This is a team that is among the favourites in each and every edition because of their history in the tournament. Brazil is the only side that has won the World Cup five times, more than any other country.
The Seleção finished as Group C winner and defeated Japan in the Round of 32. But they were surprisingly knocked out by Norway in the Round of 16 with a 2-1 scoreline. This was a shocking early elimination for Brazil, looking at their history in the World Cup. This was not a disappointment but a failure for not even getting to the quarter-finals.
Why Brazil Were Eliminated
- Wasteful finishing.
- Defensive mistakes under pressure.
- Norway executed a disciplined counter-attacking strategy.
Germany: Penalty Shootout Heartbreak
The 2014 World Cup champions Germany had a very poor tournament. They were in Group E, tied on six points with Côte d’Ivoire but separated by goal difference, which saw Die Mannschaft topping the group.
They arrived in this campaign with the hope of re-establishing themselves as a global powerhouse after several disappointing major tournaments such as Euro 2024 and the 2025 UEFA Nations League.
In the round of 32 Germany met Paraguay, who eliminated them on penalties. This was Germany’s first-ever World Cup penalty shootout loss, making it one of the biggest shocks of the knockout stage.
Why Germany Failed
- Inability to convert chances during normal time.
- Missed penalties under pressure.
- Paraguay’s goalkeeper produced a match-winning performance.
Portugal: Stopped by Spain
Portugal arrived at the tournament with one of the strongest squads, mixing veteran leaders with a new wave of exciting talent. They beat Croatia in the Round of 32 before drawing their neighbours Spain in a much-anticipated Round of 16 tie. Despite a determined performance, Portugal fell to a narrow 1–0 defeat, bringing their campaign to an end in the last 16 round and extending their wait for a first FIFA World Cup triumph.
Why Portugal Were Eliminated
- Lack of attacking creativity.
- Spain dominated possession.
- Failure to break down a disciplined Spanish defence.
Netherlands: Another Knockout Disappointment
The Netherlands came into the tournament as one of the favourites to go far, with many claiming them to be dangerous dark horses. However, their campaign ended in a stunning defeat to Morocco in the Round of 32 after going down in a penalty shootout. The Dutch enjoyed the greater share of possession and created the better chances but were unable to find the decisive goal, allowing Morocco to win from the spot and pull off one of the tournament’s biggest upsets.
Why the Netherlands Fell Short
- Poor finishing.
- Missed penalties.
- Morocco displayed exceptional defensive resilience.
France: Tournament Favourites Fall at the Final Hurdle
France entered the tournament as one of the bookmakers’ top favourites to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Les Bleus were hot favourites to reach a third consecutive World Cup final with Kylian Mbappé leading the charge and a star-studded squad including
Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembele, Aurelien Tchouameni and Eduardo Camavinga.
They’ve started their campaign in impressive style, beating Sweden, Paraguay and Morocco en route to the semi-finals. But a 2-0 loss to Spain brought an abrupt end to their title hopes.
From the first whistle, Spain were on top, with the ball at their feet and the midfield battle won, stifling any attacking threat from the dangerous French attack. Les Bleus failed to fashion a single clear-cut chance in the game, and Didier Deschamps admitted his side were second best.
Why France Fell Short
- Spain’s midfield controlled the game.
- Mbappé and the French attack were effectively contained.
- Tactical imbalance left France vulnerable in midfield.
Why So Many Favourites Failed
With many shocking results that have been produced in the 2026 World Cup highlighted just how unpredictable international football can be. This shows that elite squads filled with world-class talent found themselves eliminated before the final.
The squad depth was a crucial part, as this year’s World Cup format has expanded to 48 teams. This was maybe the lesson for the football giants: that reputation alone guarantees nothing on football’s biggest stage.
Bet on the World Cup
Every World Cup campaign produces unexpected twists, but the 2026 edition reminded fans why football remains the world’s most unpredictable sport. With England and Argentina still having to play the second semi-final, the winner will face Spain, and then the loser will play France for the third-place play-off. Bet on the World Cup and other major soccer leagues that Bet.co.za has provided.

