By The Numbers: Lucas Ribeiro wins big at the PSL awards

The biggest winner on the PSL awards night was Lucas Ribeiro, who took home the PSL Footballer of the Season, Betway Premiership Players’ Player of the Season, Betway Premiership Goal of the Season, and the Betway Premiership Top Goal Scorer awards.

The Brazilian had an excellent campaign, with his goals and contributions helping Sundowns to a record-stretching eighth consecutive title.

More than a goalscorer

In the 30-game PSL era, 16 goals have been enough to win the Golden Boot in 17 of the 23 seasons (that’s 74% of the time). Only one player in the past 13 seasons has scored more than 16 goals, so Ribeiro’s tally is par for the Golden Boot course. Yet, this is a player who can be described as a complete forward. The radar below shows how highly he ranks in other metrics that are not necessarily striker-focused, including through balls and chances created.

On the other hand, one may wonder when the latest start to a PSL season was. COVID disruption in 2019/20 pushed the next campaign back dramatically. The 2020/21 MTN 8 quarter-finals only kicked off on 17 October, with the league following a week later. Those remain the latest competitive starts in PSL records. Two other recent seasons crept toward late August: 2010/11 and 2016/17, but neither went into the last week. Compared to those anomalies, early August feels timely.

Ribeiro was also involved in facilitating play and bringing others into the game, and proved very successful in that. He is also tasked with creating openings in opposition defences for his teammates to take advantage of. Only one player had more assists in the league than him last season, with just two (Hanamub & Makgalwa) creating more big chances.

His shot map below shows how he performed in front of the goal last season. The 16 goals came from 10.3xG worth of chances, highlighting how clinical he was. His 22% shot conversion rate is miles ahead of the league average (9%), and if goalscoring was his primary role, he has also excelled at that. Having an Iqraam-Rayners-type striker to share the goalscoring burden has helped him. The Brazilian is not always under pressure to score goals, which can lead to desperation and poor shot selection. Instead, he can assume a more well-rounded role, scoring and providing in equal thrilling measure.

A Golden Player

Lucas Ribeiro has been a revelation since he joined Sundowns last season. 28 goals (yellow line below) across two seasons already make him the highest-scoring Brazilian in PSL history. But coming from 19.4xG (green line) indicates that he was finishing above average. Yet, there’s a clear difference in his two seasons – the 2023/24 campaign, both lines were closely matched (especially at the start), but that gap started to widen last season. Not only did the forward start taking more shots (nearly double that of last season), but he has also become better at finishing.

While other categories may spark debate – the Goalkeeper of the Season featured three players tied on 10 clean sheets, Defender of the Season is notoriously difficult to assess through data alone, and Midfielder of the Season groups diverse positional roles – the best player award shows rare consensus. Media, players, coaches, and analytics all align on this choice. Should he remain at Sundowns and maintain this form, Ribeiro’s only competition may well be himself.