Betting Notebook: PSL Matchday 7

League leaders Sekhukhune United host Golden Arrows on Saturday afternoon looking to maintain their grip at the top of the table. Stellenbosch will be looking to get their season up and running when they host Richards Bay on Saturday late afternoon, before Sundowns lock horns with Durban City later in the evening. Our Betting Notebook is a statistical guide to selected games on the weekend.

Sekhukhune (1st) v Golden Arrows (10th)

Sekhukhune were already a good side, but the progress they have made during Eric Tinkler’s first few months cannot be over-stated. Whether they are good enough to get back into CAF, or pull a surprise run at the title remains to be seen. They host a Golden Arrows side that has struggled on the road all year, with just one win in 12 league away league games since the start of February. No wonder the odds are heavily in Sekhukhune’s favour. If there is a game for goals this weekend, it would be this one. Arrows may be ropy away from home, but they have scored in every match on the road this season. As for the hosts, goals seem to be a banker.

22 – Sekhukhune have scored in 22 consecutive league games, the second best run by a team
in PSL history.

Main bet: Sekhukhune to win
Value bet: Sekhukhune to score at least once

Sundowns (2nd) v Durban City (4th)

Sundowns have lost just one of their last 27 league games played against newly promoted sides, winning 19 and drawing seven since September 2015. Yet, the Brazilians have not been convincing so far this season and were particularly bereft of ideas during the week as they drew 1-1 against Marumo Gallants. In Gavin Hunt, they also face an old foe who has a knack for springing a surprise in big games. While the Hunt-factor may not be enough to narrow the odds – Downs have a whopping 82% win probability pre-game (compared to 10% for the visitors) it may make things interesting. Whatever shortcomings there may be for The Brazilians, it is hard to look beyond their home form.

17 – Sundowns have won 17 consecutive home league games, extending the record for consecutive home wins by a team in PSL history.

Main bet: Sundowns win or draw
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals

Stellenbosch (13th) v Richards Bay (11th)

A home game against a team that has won two away games all year is just what Steve Barker would have asked for after a trying fortnight. As if a crushing defeat in the MTN8 was not enough, Stellies went on to lose 2-1 to AmaZulu in Durban a few days later. Last season’s 3rd placed team are at risk of pairing their CAF adventures with the task of climbing up the domestic table – and they will want to do the latter sooner. Stellies are favourites here, which may surprise those who followed this game last season – both games ended in a draw, and Stellies needed a late penalty to grab a point in their home game. Yet, their home form may have a bearing more than other factors.

365 – It’s been exactly one year since a domestic team that was not Kaizer Chiefs or Sundowns beat Stellenbosch in a home game.

Main bet: Stellies to win
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals