The PSL’s Most Clinical and Wasteful Teams

This weekend, the 100th game of the PSL season will be played when Richards Bay and AmaZulu clash in a KZN derby. In addition, we are looking forward to the 200th goal of the season. 99 games into the campaign, 198 goals have been scored at exactly 2 goals a game. It’s a healthy return for a league not known for high scoring games – and one of the better scoring recent seasons. Sundowns and, surprisingly, Golden Arrows, lead the scoring charts with 19 goals each, while ts galaxy are third with 18. On the other end, Siwelele and Chippa United (7 each) have struggled to find the net. While the highest and lowest scorers are clear, Expected Goals (xG) can give us a better view of teams’ scoring performances, while xG per Shot and shot conversion rates help go even deeper.

The Contenders

Sundowns and Orlando Pirates are locked in a familiar tug-of-war at the top of the table, yet their methods appear strikingly different. Sundowns, the defending champions, often rely on intricate build-up and consistent pressure. They often generate high-quality scoring opportunities, indicating a superior ability to break down organised defences, and have the clinical finishers required to convert that advantage. Orlando Pirates, their main rivals, have a more aggressive, high-transition style. While the Buccaneers are on par in points, an analysis of their data might reveal a slight tilt towards a high shot conversion rate coupled with a middling xG per shot.

This suggests moments of extreme clinical finishing, potentially scoring from lower-probability chances. Only one team has scored more goals from outside the box than Pirates’ three this season. It does not take a lot of memory to remember the wonderful goals – from Dasin’s screamer to Moremi and Appolis’ long-range strikes. The problem is, you can’t bank on that every week. This reliance on individual brilliance or luck, rather than high-quality chance volume, could make their current form less sustainable over the full season.

The Predictors of Success

The teams that consistently feature in the Top-Right Quadrant (creating high-value chances and finishing them effectively) are the ones history suggests will sustain their form. We have highlighted these in red text – their shot conversion is high, and theyir shots are on average of good quality. At the moment, this includes joint-op scorers Sundowns and Golden Arrows, then Marumo Gallants and AmaZulu. Conversely, clubs that are currently overperforming their xG will likely see their goal tally drop back towards their statistical expectation.

The Wasteful

Despite taking the most shots and sitting in a respectable position in the table, analysts frequently point to Kaizer Chiefs’ struggles with shot conversion. Reports from earlier in the season showed Chiefs taking high-volume shots but converting them at a worryingly low rate. The team is doing the hard part (creating dangerous opportunities), but their inability to finish, either through individual error or poor luck, is costing them vital points. The data suggests that with an improvement in finishing efficiency, their league standing should naturally climb.

Red Flags

Down in the bottom-left quadrant, teams struggle on both metrics, creating poor chances and failing to convert the few good ones they do get. This is the danger zone. Bottom-of-the-table Chippa United and Stellenbosch FC find themselves here. Their scatterplot position confirms the league table’s message: they are not only struggling to get into goal-scoring positions but are also missing the chances they do manage to create. For these clubs, the second half of the season must focus on either chance quality, finishing ability, or both, to avoid the drop.