Betting Notebook: PSL Matchday 20

Matchday 20 in the PSL brings a full schedule of action, with movement expected in all the key battles at the top and bottom of the table. Sundowns and Orlando Pirates are level on points in the title race, while two points separate the teams in 3rd and 6th place in the quest for a CAF Confederations Cup place. Magesi may be bottom of the table, but they are only three points from safety, and their away trip will be an opportunity to stay within touching distance of the rest. Our Betting Notebook provides the key statistical context to the midweek action.

Richards Bay (12th) v Kaizer Chiefs (5th)

There are no diplomatic ways of saying this – Kaizer Chiefs are experiencing a slump. Chiefs have lost four of their last five games, which is more than they lost in the first 23 games of their season (L3). The latest of those defeats will be the most worrying. Against Pirates, they never seemed to leave first gear, and could have been beaten by a bigger margin if Pirates were more clinical. The good thing for Chiefs is they can immediately change the narrative, when they face a team that is seven places below them on the table. The bookmakers make them favourites here (50%-22% implied win probability in their favour), which is a bit surprising, given how they often struggle in this away fixture. With confidence in the camp low and Richards Bay fighting to steer clear of the danger zone, this could be close.

2 – Chiefs have lost their last two games away to Richards Bay (1-0 in April 2024, 2-0 in March 2025).

You can bet on a draw or Richards Bay win

You can bet on both teams to score

Sundowns (2nd) v Golden Arrows (10th)

It is easy to forget that Pirates came into this game on the back of a league defeat and Cup elimination, but it is noteworthy that they have bounced back straightaway. A narrow 1-0 win would have been enough to exorcise the memories of the past week, but Pirates went all out. Truth is, they could have had more goals. The club have found a way to narrow the gap between them and Sundowns, and simultaneously are opening a chasm away from Chiefs. That’s five consecutive derby victories for the Bucaneers, a first in PSL history.

For all that the narrative this season has been about Sundowns struggling to maintain their dominance in the league, a quick glance at the table suggests they are doing alright. Downs are joint-top on points, behind Pirates only by goal difference. A further look into the form table would suggest they are thriving – the Brazilians have won five in a row in the league, scoring 10 and conceding just two. In Coach Manqoba Mngqithi, current coach Miguel Cardoso will be facing his immediate predecessor in that hot seat. Mngqithi won the first fixture between these coaches in September, in what remains Sundowns’ only loss of the season in the league. While that may bring Arrows a glimmer of hope, it’s Downs’ home record that gives them an implied 83% probability of victory pre-game (6% for the away team) in the win market.

16 – Sundowns are unbeaten across all competitions at home this season (P16 W12 D4 L0), last losing a home game in April last year.

You can bet on a Sundowns win

You can bet on Over 2.5 goals

Polokwane City (7th) v Orlando Pirates (1st)

Elsewhere, Orlando Pirates will make the daunting trip up north to face Polokwane City. This fixture has proved to be happy hunting for the Buccaneers in recent years. One has to go back to October 2014 for a Pirates defeat against Rise and Shine. Pirates’ 3-0 demolition of Chiefs will give them an added boost before this game, but the hosts were also victorious on the weekend, and will be equally bullish. The big question is whether Polokwane City can breach the Pirates defence, something 9 of the 13 teams they’ve faced have failed to do. Probability-wise, the odds are 60%-16% in favour of Pirates in the main win market. But there could be better value elsewhere, especially in backing Pirates to keep a clean sheet.

13 – Sipho Chaine has kept 13 clean sheets in the league this season, more than any other keeper.

You can bet on a draw or Pirates win

You can bet on Polokwane City scoring Under 0.5 goals