By The Numbers: Bafana’s AFCON journey ends

South Africa lost 2-1 to Cameroon on Sunday night in the Last 16 of the African Cup of Nations in Morocco. Trailing 2-0 from the 47th minute, Bafana managed to halve the deficit late on, but did not have enough to draw level and take the game to extra time. The result eliminated Bafana from the competition, sending the boys home much earlier than the last competition at the hands of Hugo Broos’ former side. However, it ensured an 11th quarter-final for the Indomatable Lions of Cameroon, who started off as favorites, but may consider themselves fortunate given how some of the numbers panned out.

By the Numbers is a statistical review of the action.

A tale of chances wasted

Hugo Broos turned heads when he made some changes to a Starting XI that had taken six points in the group stages. For the first half hour, the tactical change seemed destined to pay off and may have surprised the Cameroonians. Bafana generated very good opportunities to take the lead, but could not maximise. Defensively, Cameroon were successfully suffocated, failing to record a meaningful shot for the first 34 minutes. They would take the lead against the run of play, with only their second shot.

2 – big chances Bafana in the 1st half (both of them missed)

1 – big chance for Cameroon in the first half (which was taken)

The pattern seemed to continue throughout the game. The performance deserved a win, but the efficiency gap proved decisive.

4 – big chances for Bafana all game, their joint-most in a game at this AFCON (4 also v Zim)

3 – big chances missed by Bafana, more than they did in any other game at this edition

18 – shots for Bafana in the whole game (just 10 for Cameroon)

2.1 – xG generated by Bafana all game (1.4 for Cameroon)

1.9 – non-penalty xG generated by Bafana in all three group game

The difference in AFCONs

Having said that, Hugo Broos will also be looking at how better the defence could have performed in Morocco. Looking at the previous AFCON, where Bafana finished third, a lot of that owed to a steely defence that conceded just three goals all tournament. This time around, Bafana did not have that as a foundation. When all is said and done, this was the biggest difference between the two editions.

5 – clean sheets for Bafana at the previous AFCON

0 – clean sheets for Bafana at this season, the first time they played more than hree matches at an AFCON and fail to keep a clean sheet

0.4 – goals conceded per game at the previous AFCON

1.5 – goals conceded per game at this AFCON

Going forward

Fortunately, it is not all doom and gloom in the Bafana camp. Lest we forget, this is a squad that already qualified for the World Cup. Exiting an AFCON tournament by a one-goal margin when you were 10th favourite to win is not a crisis. It is a harsh reminder of the fine margins at the elite level of national football. The World Cup mission has become clearer.

• Restore the defensive solidity of past successful tournaments
• Be clinical and finish the chances that you create.

The story of Morocco 2026 was not a lack of ideas. Rather, it was a lack of finishing, something we can work on for the next six months.