Big Game Preview: Kaizer Chiefs v Sundowns

The Glamour Boys have started their season in good form, winning all three of their games to open the season – something that has not happened in over a decade. Now they have to dust themselves down, and get ready to return to welcome a team that have been standard bearers in this competition for nearly a decade. Our Big Game Preview brings you the statistical context behind the game, answering three key questions.

Is this always an early encounter?

Chiefs playing Sundowns early in the season has become a norm in recent campaigns. In each of the last nine seasons, the first meeting has happened in the opening nine games. In six of those seasons (67% of the time), the first game has been played in the opening three games. So broadly speaking, Sundowns v Chiefs on Matchday 4 is relatively late. Many have pointed to this as a reason for Chiefs’ slow starts in recent years, but that may be a stretch. In the previous 24 seasons, Chiefs lost the first leg against Sundowns only two times, but lately that has changed.

5/5 – Chiefs have lost the first leg of this tie in each of the last five seasons.

How often do these teams meet during the week?

On Wednesday morning, reports circulated that the match was sold out (60,000 tickets). To many fans, it makes sense to reserve a game of this magnitude for the weekend when more people can attend. When you look at the last 10 seasons, the trend has been to play the game on weekends. 80% of the league meetings between the teams in the last 10 campaigns have been played on a weekend, although in 2023/24, both games played during the week (Wednesday and Thursday). In PSL history, this fixture has been played on every day of the week except Tuesday.

Most common days for this fixture:

• 43% – Saturday
• 22% – Wednesday
• 21% – Sunday

What is the head-to-head?

Historically, Chiefs have enjoyed an impressive head-to-head record against Sundowns. After all, they are the only team to beat Sundowns more than 15 times in the 30-year history of the competition (21 times). Yet, the pendulum has swung in recent years. Downs have won each of the last six league meetings between the sides, completing three consecutive league doubles – a first in this fixture. That said, last season’s fixtures were pretty close, despite Downs winning both. The first leg saw Chiefs create better chances than Downs, despite never wresting the momentum in the game. 60% of the time, Chiefs would have won that game based on quality of chances created/conceded (a 2-1 score the highest probability). But Downs (clinical up front, a MOTM performance from the keeper) helped take the points home.

Should Chiefs be able to add chance creation to controlling the game for longer periods, they could get a positive result here. They did this well in the Nedbank Cup semi-final earlier this year, but will have to find a way to do that tonight.

0 – Chiefs will be aiming to keep four consecutive clean sheets at the start of a season for the first time in PSL history.

Main bet: Draw or Sundowns win

Value bet: Both teams to score

Wednesday fixtures:

• Kaizer Chiefs v Sundowns
• Golden Arrows v Magesi
• Sekhukhune United v AmaZulu