Betting Notebook: PSL Matchday 20

Few things better illustrate what a competitive season this has been than the two-way title race between Orlando Pirates and Sundowns. At the turn of the year, Kaizer Chiefs – and to a lesser extent Sekhukhune – were still in the picture at the top. Both have since fallen away, leaving Pirates and Sundowns as the principal challengers for the PSL title. That race takes another turn this week, as they feature in the only two midweek games. Downs travel to Orbit College on Tuesday night, while Pirates host Richards Bay 24 hours later. Our Betting Notebook puts both games into statistical context.

Tuesday: Orbit College (15th) v Sundowns (2nd)

For the most part this season, Sundowns have looked like a shadow of their usual dominant selves. Only last month did they manage to string together three consecutive wins in the league, six months into the campaign. They have also just kept four clean sheets in the last 12 league games. Yet, even in those circumstances, they have managed to stay in touch with the top of the league, as the graph below shows (green line represents the average champions path).

Lately, they have started winning again and it is an ominous sign for those around them. Six consecutive league wins equals the best run of any team this season, and they are strongly favoured to make it seven tonight. Bookmakers implied probability gives them an 83% chance at victory, compared to Orbit’s 7%. Not only have Orbit lost the most games in the league this season (12), they have also conceded the most goals (33). This is a mismatch on many fronts, but there is a slight wrinkle when looking at Sundowns’ away form.

0 – Sundowns are yet to win back-to-back away games this season.

You can bet on a Sundowns win

You can bet on Orbit College scoring Over 0.5

Wednesday: Orlando Pirates (1st) v Richards Bay (9th)

A win tomorrow will give Orlando Pirates their highest ever points total after 20 games of a PSL season (47). They are tracking above the average champions points-per-game pace, but frustratingly for them, so are defending champions Sundowns. Yet, the Buccaneers have the slight edge on Expected Points, reflecting a team that continues to pair solid attacking numbers with a stable defence.

Pirates’ brief malfunction from two weeks ago seems to have been corrected. Back-to-back reverse results to Sundowns (a 2-1 loss) and Casric Stars (eliminated in the Nedbank Cup) that threatened to derail their momentum. But it all feels distant now. It’s what happens when you wallop your biggest rivals 3-0 (Chiefs) and then follow that up with an away win in a notoriously difficult environment (Polokwane). Pirates registered 31 shots in the game against City, a record for the club in a league game since full data is available (2020 onwards). Should that continue, they will remain at the top with just 10 games to play.

1 – This is the 10th meeting between Pirates and Richards Bay. Pirates have lost just once, winning five & drawing three.

You can bet on a Pirates win

You can bet on Under 2.5 goals