ANALYSIS: Bafana Bafana game-by-game

South Africa’s dreams of reclaiming continental glory were extinguished on Sunday evening at the Agdal Medina Stadium in Rabat, as Bafana Bafana suffered a heartbreaking 2–1 defeat to Cameroon in the Round of 16. Despite a campaign that showed flashes of brilliance and a resurgence of tactical identity under Hugo Broos, the 1996 champions were ultimately undone by the clinical efficiency of the Indomitable Lions. We dug into some numbers from our friends at Opta to help put Bafana’s journey so far into better context.

Key stats

• This is the eighth time Bafana have progressed past the group stages
• Bafana created 4.78 xG across their four matches, scoring six goals
• At the time of elimination, they were joint second for shots taken (62) with hosts Morocco and one behind Senegal. They also had the third-highest shots on target.
• It was their conversion of shots to goals that left them down, placing them 13th on 10%.
• Bafana won two group games at an AFCON for the first time since 2000 and for only the third time overall (W2 also in 1996)
• Aubrey Modiba created five chances against Zimbabwe, the most by a Bafana player at AFCON since 2008 (Opta)
• Oswin Appollis scored two goals off 1.25 xG while Lyle Foster took most of our shots at goal (10), 5 on target.

Offensively, Bafana were decent, netting six goals in their four games, and averaging 1.5 goals per game. Only once before (30 years ago in 1996) have Bafana averaged more goals in a single AFCON edition (1.8 in 1996). Only five teams scored more goals than Bafana in the groups (Nigeria, Algeria, Senegal, Morocco and Tunisia),  four of them are the favourites to win the tournament outright, based on Opta predictions.

Defensively, the headline numbers are not as impressive, with six goals conceded overall. Notably, Bafana did not keep a clean sheet in the group stages – only the fourth time this happened at an AFCON (after 2006, 2008 and 2015). However, this is the first time Bafana failed to keep a clean sheet having played 4+ games. These totals provide an overview, but let’s trace the journey game by game to see how we got here.

Game 1: Bafana 2-1 Angola

Bafana opened their campaign with a 2-1 win over Angola. Despite a difficult first half, Bafana managed to open the scoring through Oswin Appollis. Angola got a deserved equaliser 10 minutes before the end of the first half, but Lyle Foster ensured Bafana’s improved second half counted with a winner late on.

• Non-penalty xG: Bafana Bafana 0.44 – 0.89 Opponent
• Shots: 10 (4 on target) – 10 (4)
• Big chances created: 1 – 2
• Touches in the opposition box: 14 – 23

Game 2: Bafana 0-1 Egypt

An eventful game that saw Bafana concede a very soft penalty to Egypt just before the end of the 1st half, and then get denied one of their own at the end of the second. With 74% possession in the second half, it was all Bafana in this game, and the equaliser would have been well deserved.

• Non-penalty xG: Bafana Bafana 0.75 – 0.33 Opponent
• Shots: 18 (6 on target) – 6 (3)
• Big chances created: 1 – 1
• Touches in the opposition box: 24 – 8

Game 3: Bafana 3-2 Zimbabwe

Bafana effectively knocked neighbours Zimbabwe out in the final group game, despite a late scare. A draw would have been enough for progress coming into the game (and even defeat may not have mattered in the end), but the boys gave their all to ensure they progressed without any permutations needed.

• Non-penalty xG: Bafana Bafana 0.72 – 1.28  Opponent
• Shots: 16 (9 on target) – 10 (3)
• Big chances created: 4 – 3
• Touches in the opposition box: 25 – 24

Game 4: Bafana 1-2 Cameroon

Bafana showed intent throughout the full 90 minutes, controlling the ball for the majority of the game. They created a couple of significant opportunities to score, yet were unable to find the back of the net. Oswin Appollis was instrumental in setting up plays; however, their finishing lacked precision on the evening.

• Non-penalty xG: Bafana Bafana 2.1 – 1.36  Opponent
• Shots: 18 (4 on target) – 10 (4)
• Big chances created: 4 – 3
• Touches in the opposition box: 28 – 16