By The Numbers: WAFCON 2024 Group Stage Review

The 2024 WAFCON Group stages were wrapped up last night, with resounding wins for Ghana and South Africa in Group C.

. The Black Queens and Banyana Banyana both put four goals past Tanzania and Mali respectively, with the latter (Mali) still qualifying to the next round as the best 3rd placed team. They join five other teams, namely Nigeria, Algeria, Morocco, Zambia and Senegal in the Last 8. This is a statistical review of the tournament so far.

Not too many goals

Despite Banyana, Ghana, Morocco and Senegal scoring four goals in a game on separate occassions, this has been a low scoring tournament so far. Two goalless draws, both involving Algeria (v Tunisia and Nigeria) is a new record for goalless draws in the Group stages of the tournament, and already equals the tournament record for 0-0 draws ever (also in 2018). On average, we have seen 2.5 goals per game, a slight drop from the 2022 group stage average (2.7 gpg) but a significant decline from the prior tournament (3.6 gpg in the Groups).

2.3 – Only once before has a WAFCON tournament averaged fewer goals in the Group stages (2.3 gpg in 2008).

Shooting Gallery

Still, no one can say that the teams haven’t given it a real go. Nigeria for example, are tournament leaders for shots taken, having taken 63 in their three games at an average of 21 per game. Yet they only have four goals to show for that effort, which is a meagre return. Of the 63 shots, only 15 have been on target, making their 24% shot accuracy the worst in the tournament. The last game against Algeria was exemplary of this wastefulness, with Nigeria taking 24 shots and only getting two on target on the way to a 0-0 draw. Amazingly, Algeria only managed one shot all game, the lowest for a team in a match in the tournament.

Top three teams for shots taken at WAFCON so far:

• 63 – Nigeria
• 49 – Ghana
• 42 – Zambia

Lowest three teams for shots taken at WAFCON so far:

• 19 – Tunisia
• 23 – Mali
• 28 – Algeria

Beyond shots

Going beyond shots, Expected Goals is a metric that measures the quality of the goalscoring opportunities and estimates the probability of goals coming from each shot. This can help us see which teams have had the better chances, not just the most chances. Ghana have been the best team for xG created at the tournament, racking up 6.4xG with their chances. Morocco (6.2xG, with three penalties) and Zambia (6.0xG) come second and third respectively. On the defensive side, Nigeria have had a stroll in the park, with just 0.4xG allowed to their opponents. Morocco (2.2xGA) and Banyana (2.4xGA) are the second and third best defences based on that. xG Difference is a sum of the xG and xG against for all teams, and shows overall how well teams have performed in either box on balance.

 Top three teams for xG Difference at WAFCON so far:

• +5.6xGD – Nigeria
• +4.0xGD – Zambia
• +3.3xGD – Ghana

Lowest three teams for xG Difference at WAFCON so far:

• -4.2 – Mali
• -3.6 – DRC
• -3.6 – Tunisia

Banyana spotlight

Banyana may not appear in any of these categories, but this is a limited set of data. On the field, we’ve seen them improve as the tournament has progressed. They are one of four teams with seven points, alongside Nigeria, Morocco and Zambia. Banyana will be considered favourites to get to the semis, given that they play a Senegalese team that qualified as the lowest team (3 points in 3 games). One strength for Banyana is that they have been efficient in front of goal, netting seven times, the joint-best return at the tournament (like Morocco). With 19 of their 48 shots hitting the target, the girls have shown sharpness in the final third.

Top three teams for shot accuracy at WAFCON so far:

• 48% – Banyana
• 46% – Algeria
• 42% – Senegal

Top three teams for shot conversion at WAFCON so far:

• 18% – Banyana
• 18% – Morocco
• 17% – Mali

Quarter-final fixtures:

• QF1: Morocco v Mali
• QF2: Nigeria v Zambia
• QF3: South Africa v Senegal
• QF4: Algeria v Ghana