URC Predictions – Round 18

Log leaders Leinster (72), the Bulls (63), the defending champion Glasgow Warriors (59) and the Sharks (58) have locked in home quarter-finals, while the Stormers (50) have also punched their ticket to the playoffs.

That leaves the Scarlets (48), Benetton (46), Munster (46), Cardiff (46) and Edinburgh (44) to fight it out for the three remaining spots in the top eight.

The Bulls and the Stormers will look to cement their places in second and fifth, respectively, when they host the Dragons and Cardiff. The Sharks will aim to leapfrog the Warriors for a third-place finish with a win over the Scarlets at Kings Park, while the Lions have only pride to play for in their clash against the Ospreys at Ellis Park.

Stormers vs Cardiff

Friday, 16 May – 19:00 SAST

The Stormers will look to take a page out of the Bulls’ book and start strong against the men from the Welsh capital to kill off their hopes as early as possible.

The Capetonians were guilty of forcing the issue in the rain in the first quarter against the Dragons last weekend, but settled into their work and triumphed 48-12 in the end.

After enduring a nightmare first half at Loftus Versfeld last weekend, Cardiff showed character to claw back three tries and nearly selvage a bonus point in the second stanza. The 45-21 defeat saw them drop out of the top eight to ninth, so they’ll throw everything at the Stormers.

Cardiff are a team you have to attack up the guts, like the Bulls did, so as much as the Stormers like to sizzle, pragmatism to lay the foundation will serve them well. Cardiff won’t roll over, but the Stormers have too many weapons and will seal fifth place.

Prediction: Stormers by 14.
Suggested Bet: Cardiff +17 at 1.90.

Edinburgh v Ulster

When: Friday, 16 May – 20:35 SAST

Motivation and a lack thereof should separate these two sides.

Ten-ranked Edinburgh are still in the playoff race following their 31-21 away win over Connacht, while Ulster are out of the running following their 38-20 loss to Munster last weekend.

With nothing to play for, the trip to the Scottish capital will be a long one for the Ulstermen and should end in defeat.

Prediction: Edinburgh by 10.
Suggested Bet: Ulster +11 at 1.90.

Munster v Benetton

Friday, 16 May – 20:35 SAST

Both of these teams are on 46 points, with Benetton’s superior points’ difference seeing them enter the final round of league action seventh and Munster eighth. Only one point ahead of ninth-placed Cardiff and two ahead of 10th-placed Edinburgh, this could prove to be a do-or-die affair.

Benetton provided the shock of Round 16, smashing the Warriors 33-7 to erase the previous round’s 56-5 defeat in Cape Town from their memories. As good as the Italians were, the defending champions were equally poor. Munster, too, got back on track in a good way last weekend with their 18-point win over Ulster and should be too strong at home.  

Prediction: Munster by 4.

Bulls v Dragons

When: Saturday, 17 May – 15:00 SAST

It’s all about delivering an 80-minute performance for the men from Pretoria this week after they led Cardiff 31-0 at halftime and we’re outscored 14-21 in the second half last weekend.

The last-placed Dragons are in for a long afternoon at Loftus. After bleeding five scrum penalties against the Stormers last weekend, things are set to go from bad to worse for them in the set piece. In fact, they’ll struggle in all departments.

Expect the Bulls to run away with it.

Prediction: Bulls by 38.

Suggested Bet: Bulls -36 at 1.90.

Lions v Ospreys

When: Saturday, 17 May – 17:15 SAST

The Lions, in lowly 13th place, played like a team out of the playoff picture in their 32-19 loss to the Scarlets last weekend. They were listless, especially in the first half, and owe it to their fans to play with the fight they’re known for in their final game of a disappointing campaign.

The Ospreys will fancy this stylistic matchup after they were bombarded by high balls and outmuscled in their 19-point loss in Durban last weekend. Despite showing good physicality in the first half and bossing the breakdown, their struggles under the high ball and the Sharks’ depth dashed their playoff hopes. 

While a ball-in-hand shootout, which should be the case here, is more favourable for the visitors than a power battle, the Sharks’ game would’ve taken a lot out of them, which, coupled with the altitude factor, should see them drop off and the Lions clinch it.

Prediction: Lions by 7.
Suggested Bet: Lions -2 at 1.90.

Zebre v Connacht

When: Saturday, 17 May – 18:00 SAST

The only dead-rubber of the round will play out in Parma, with 15th-placed Zebre hosting 14th-placed Connacht.

Zebre have been more competitive this campaign than in previous seasons and will avoid the wooden spoon for the first time. However, they felt the wrath of Leinster last weekend, taking a 76-5 shellacking that extended their winless streak to five.

Connacht are low on confidence as well, with their 10-point home defeat to Edinburgh last weekend being their fifth loss in a row. It could go either way, but Connacht are the stronger side and should end their campaign on a positive note.  

Prediction: Connacht by 5.
Suggested Bet: Connacht -3 at 1.90.

Sharks v Scarlets

When: Saturday, 17 May – 29:30 SAST

The Sharks continued their winning ways against the Ospreys last weekend, running out comfortable 29-10 winners despite still not firing close to their immense potential.

Their kicking game, though, was on the money and their power to much to handle. If they can add some attacking edge, they’d be a real problem. Other work-ons for this week will be eliminating the unforced errors that persist and being sharper at the breakdown.

The highest-placed of the Welsh regions, the sixth-placed Scarlets won’t have it as easy at Kings Park as they did at Ellis Park last weekend. As much as they’ll be up for the fight mentally, they won’t be able to match the Sharks’ physicality, and their indiscipline will add to their downfall.

Prediction: Sharks by 16.
Suggested Bet: Sharks -11 at 1.90.

Leinster v Glasgow Warriors

When: Saturday, 17 May – 20:35 SAST

As predicted, log leaders Leinster took their anger and frustration of crashing out of the Investec Champions Cup out on Zebre last weekend, racking up 76 points and conceding just five.

Ever since their 52-0 hammering at the hands of Leinster in the Champions Cup, Glasgow haven’t been the same side who occupied second place for much of the league phase of the URC.

Coming off a shocking performance in Treviso, where they ate a 33-7 loss, they’re in for another drubbing here, which will see the Sharks overtake them to finish third.

Prediction: Leinster by 28.
Suggested Bet: Leinster -25 at 1.90.