United Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 5

The Bulls are up first against the Glasgow Warriors in Scotland on Friday night, before a feast of rugby on Saturday gets underway with the Lions hosting Ulster at Ellis Park.

The pressure is on as the Sharks square off against the Scarlets at Kings Park, while the Stormers will be keen to keep the good times going against Benetton in Treviso.

Glasgow Warriors v Bulls

Friday, 24 October – 20:45

After bouncing back in Galway with a 28-27 win over Connacht last weekend, the Bulls will be up against it in Glasgow as they face a red-hot Warriors outfit without a number of their Springboks.

Johann Ackermann’s men responded well to their Round Three defeat in Belfast with a significant step up in attitude, intensity and physicality. Their scrum continued to resemble a bulldozer and their defence was much-improved, although, a lot of work still needs to be done in tightening up.

Worryingly for them, they’re facing a Warriors team who are lethal and ruthless with ball in hand. Their 42-17 away triumph over the Ospreys last weekend was their third resounding win, following a 49-0 shutout of the Dragons and a 35-19 victory over the Sharks, with their lone loss to Benetton (16-14) coming via a last-gasp Rhyno Smith drop goal.

The Bulls are a work in progress under Ackermann, especially defensively, whereas Franco Smith’s side are much more set structurally and should prevail as a result.

Prediction: Glasgow Warriors by 14.

Suggested Bet: Glasgow Warriors -10 at 1.90.

Lions v Ulster

Saturday, 25 October – 13:45

It wasn’t pretty, but the Lions picked up their first win of the season over the Scarlets last weekend and will look to build on that 29-18 success against their impressive Irish visitors.

A lack of accuracy and patience, coupled with the bad habit of trying too many sexy plays, saw the Pride lead just 5-3 at halftime after having had 70% of the possession, but a much-improved second-half performance saw them break their duck.

More punch and patience will go a long way for the Lions, especially against an Ulster side who’ve beaten all comers thus far. The Belfast-based side are one of just three unbeaten teams left in the competition and are high on confidence after their 34-26 upset win over the star-studded Sharks last weekend.

They were lethal on attack, clever and connected on defence, and forced turnovers in the Kings Park clash, though they did bleed a lot of penalties and a yellow card in the second half. Despite this, I do think they’ll have the legs to get ahead and hold on on the Highveld to complete a super South African tour.

Prediction: Ulster by 7.
Suggested Bet: Ulster -2 at 1.90.

Sharks v Scarlets

Saturday, 25 October – 16:00

It’s the dance of the desperados in Durban.

Both teams remain winless and find themselves in the bottom three, with the Sharks 14th and the Scarlets dead last.

While the Welsh club were expected to struggle, the Sharks’ nightmare start to the season has come as a shock considering their roster and top-four finish last season.

Last weekend’s 34-26 homecoming loss to Ulster was nothing short of a disaster. With 13 Springboks in the starting XV and more on the bench, the disjointed Durbanites stuttered through the 80 minutes, with their dominant scrum being the only positive.

The Scarlets were extremely dogged on defence and bossed the breakdown but dropped off in the final 30 minutes against the Lions last weekend, leading to their 11-point loss.

This is a must-win game for the under-fire John Plumtree. It could take some time for the hosts to get going, but given the circumstances and their quality, they should finally get that elusive first win against a very average Scarlets side.

Prediction: Sharks by 18.
Suggested Bet: Sharks -17 at 1.90.

Benetton v Stormers

Saturday, 25 October – 18:30

Topping the table with a perfect four-from-four record, the Stormers will look to strike while the iron is hot and register their first win in Treviso.

The Capetonians came up short on both of their previous visits to the Italian town, losing 22-18 in 2021 and 20-17 in 2023, but are being tipped to triumph this weekend given their form.

They did play too loosely and missed several try-scoring opportunities in the first half of last weekend’s clash with Zebre, but their set pieces and driving maul were phenomenal and they won comfortably (31-13) in the end.

Benetton have blown hot and cold so far this season. They’re 2-2 and coming off an embarrassing 43-0 hiding in Edinburgh. The Stormers will focus on the fact that their hosts are unbeaten at home, having edged Glasgow 16-14 and lashed the Lions 41-15.

That respect will serve them well, and as long as they play with the type of balance and finishing as they could and should, it’ll be third time’s the charm for them in Treviso.

Prediction: Stormers by 3.
Suggested Bet: Stormers -3 at 1.90.

Dragons v Ospreys

Saturday, 25 October – 18:30

Struggling Welsh sides slug it out in Newport.

To the surprise of no one, the Dragons are yet to break their drought, although, they did fare better than most expected in their 24-17 loss to Cardiff last weekend, and drew 17-all with the Sharks in Round Two.

The Ospreys are 1-3 but a bit of context is needed. They’ve had arguably the toughest opening slate of all the sides with away games against the Bulls (53-40), Stormers (26-10), and the Warriors (42-17) last weekend.

They blanked Zebre (24-0) in their only home game and should be too strong for the Dragons.

Prediction: Ospreys by 8.
Suggested Bet: Ospreys -7 at 1.90.

Leinster v Zebre

Saturday, 25 October – 18:30

Leinster are seething after being humiliated in front of their home fans by rivals Munster last weekend. While the shock 31-14 defeat was their third of the season, it was their first at full-strength, leaving the defending champions out for blood.

Zebre, who were pugnacious for much of last weekend’s match against the high-flying Stormers, are the unlucky ones who’ll feel the wrath of the Irish giants. Expect a one-sided beatdown.

Prediction: Leinster by 30.
Suggested Bet: Leinster -29 at 1.90.

Munster v Connacht

Saturday, 25 October – 20:45

Munster made it abundantly clear that they’re gunning for a second URC title with their tremendous above-mentioned takedown of Leinster last weekend. It was a demolition job of the highest order in Dublin and saw them continue their unbeaten start to the season.

Connacht will be kicking themselves for dropping their home game against the Bulls last weekend. Even with Josh Murphy’s 20-minute red card and their often slow, predictable attack, they stayed in the fight and could’ve won it at the death had Sean Naughton converted Mack Hansen’s try.

The challenge for Munster in this game is to get up for it the same way as they did for the big derby last weekend. They’ve established and maintained a high standard thus far, so they should continue to shine.

Prediction: Munster by 15.
Suggested Bet: Munster -8 at 1.90.

Cardiff v Edinburgh

Saturday, 25 October – 20:45

Cardiff have quietly started their campaign in fine fashion, winning three of their four games and narrowly going down to undefeated Munster (23-20) away from home.

Edinburgh, on the other hand, lost to Zebre (31-29) and Munster (21-20) and had another game postponed. They finally roared to life with an impressive 43-0 whitewash of Benetton last weekend but are back on the road, where the edge has to go to Cardiff.

Prediction: Cardiff by two.
Suggested Bet: Edinburgh +4 at 1.90.