United Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 10

After wrapping up the pool stages of the Investec Champions Cup and EPCR Challenge Cup last weekend, the South African teams turn their attention back to the URC. The unbeaten Stormers sit pretty at the top of the table, the Lions are seventh, the Bulls are 11th and the Sharks 14th.

The Gauteng teams are in action away from home on Friday night, with the Pride taking on the Ospreys in Bridgend and the Herd going up against Edinburgh at Hive Stadium. The big coastal derby goes down in Cape Town on Saturday night.

Munster v Dragons

Friday, 23 January – 21:45

Munster are in desperate need to get back on the horse. They’ve gone from being second when they lost to the Stormers in the battle of the unbeaten down to sixth place.

They’ve lost four on the trot in all competitions, with their 31-29 defeat to Castres last weekend costing them a place in the Champions Cup knockouts to boot.

The Dragons aren’t on the same level as the teams that have beaten Munster, though, so expect the Irish side to get back on track with a convincing win.

Prediction: Munster by 18.

Suggested Bet: Dragons +21 at 1.90.

Ospreys v Lions

Friday, 23 January – 21:45

The Lions are the masters of muddying the waters. Things are never straightforward with them. Optimistic fans will point to the fact that they’re the only unbeaten South African team in 2026, with wins over the Sharks (23-22) and Lyon (42-33), and a 20-all draw with Perpignan last weekend.

However, others will admit that their team continues to make the same old mistakes that have seen them spin their wheels in the last six seasons under Ivan van Rooyen. They gave up leads to Benetton, the Newcastle Red Bulls and Perpignan to narrowly miss out on a place in the Challenge Cup playoffs, leaving them once again wondering what could’ve been.

The Ospreys went 2-2 in the Champions Cup to drop to the last 16 of the Challenge Cup and are two places behind the Lions in ninth in the URC. They’ve won their last two games in the competition, beating the Scarlets 26-19 and Cardiff 33-22, and have won two of the three meetings with the Lions.

This is another game, like those against Benetton, Newcastle and Perpignan, that the Lions could and should win, but all signs point to them falling agonisingly short.

Prediction: Ospreys by 3.

Suggested Bet: Lions +4 at 1.90.

Edinburgh v Bulls

Friday, 23 January – 21:45

While it’s a bit premature to say the Bulls are back, their 26-24 upset of Pau in France last Friday was massive. The men from Pretoria showed great grit as they broke out of the hurt locker to snap a seven-game losing streak in all competitions and earn a spot in the last 16 in the Champions Cup.

It’ll take another such inspired performance to stun Edinburgh. The Scottish outfit, who also advanced to the Champions Cup playoffs despite sending a second-string side to get smashed by Bath last weekend, are one place and one point ahead of the Bulls in the URC in 10th.

Several of their returning stars will be fresh after being rested, and that should prove decisive. The hosts have won all three previous clashes between the teams at Hive Stadium by eight or less, and that should be the case again on Friday.

Prediction: Edinburgh by 4.

Suggested Bet: Edinburgh at 2.30.

Scarlets v Ulster

Saturday, 24 January – 17:00

What has been a nightmare season for the Scarlets so far has been an outstanding one for Ulster.

The Welsh team have only managed two wins in all competitions and find themselves at the foot of the URC table, while Ulster are third with a 6-2 record.

Fresh off a 26-19 win over Stade Francais that positioned them as the third seeds in the Challenge Cup playoffs, the men from Belfast are set to bag the full five log points.

Prediction: Ulster by 11.

Suggested Bet: Ulster -8 at 1.90.

Connacht v Leinster

Saturday, 24 January – 19:30

Connacht’s 75-14 mauling of Montauban last weekend was a timely win as it ended a four-match skid in all competitions, but they know they’re in for a tough night against one of their big brothers on Saturday night.

Leinster came through two intense battles against La Rochelle (25-24) and Bayonne (22-13) over the last fortnight to head into the Champions Cup playoffs unbeaten and stretch their winning streak in all competitions to nine.

The defending URC champions have won the last 12 games in this rivalry and that streak won’t be broken in this one.

Prediction: Leinster by 12.

Suggested Bet: Leinster -8 at 1.90.

Stormers v Sharks

Saturday, 24 January – 19:30

Normally, in a clash between a team at the tippy top of the table and one third from bottom, one would assume the former would make light work of the latter. However, this is a South African derby, the showdown of Mzanzi’s two talent-rich coastal teams.

The north-south derby in the previous round showed just what a leveller a local derby is, as the Stormers had to pull out all the stops to see off a struggling Bulls side 13-8.

Since then, the Capetonians effectively sacrificed their unbeaten record in all competitions by fielding a weakened team against Harlequins, and bounced back from the 61-10 lashing in London with a hard-fought 39-26 win over the Leicester Tigers last weekend to book a Champions Cup playoff berth.

As much as they are favourites on Saturday, John Dobson’s charges aren’t flying nearly as high and smoothly as they did during the phenomenal foundational phase of their stellar start to the season. They’re going through turbulence, mainly because to a departure from the clever kicking game that served them so well.

The Sharks are 3-2 in all competitions since JP Pietersen took over the reins from John Plumtree. The Durbanites seem to be heading in the right direction and last weekend’s 50-12 hammering of Clermont, in which they rediscovered their killer instinct, will bolster their belief that they can pull off an upset in the Mother City.

With both teams set to welcome back some Springbok stars, this will be a blockbuster. Both teams will bring the pain, that’s a given in a local derby, but it’s the team that plays the smarter tactical game that will come out on top. The Stormers have shown they can execute such a style, whereas the Sharks are still finding their identity under Pietersen.

Thus, the table-toppers should triumph.

Prediction: Stormers by 7.

Suggested Bet: Sharks +11 at 1.90.

Zebre v Glasgow Warriors

Saturday, 24 January – 21:45

These two teams met in the previous round, with the Warriors cruising to a 47-10 win, and only the venue and margin of victory will be different in the return fixture.

Zebre have secured back-to-back Challenge Cup wins since then, toppling the Ospreys 23-19 and Black Lion 28-14 last weekend, but they’re set to be blown away by a Glasgow team who have established themselves as title contenders, not just in the URC, but the Champions Cup as well. 

Prediction: Glasgow Warriors by 15.

Suggested Bet: Glasgow Warriors -11 at 1.90.

Cardiff v Benetton

Saturday, 24 January – 21:45

Four plays eight in the Welsh capital.

After being upset by the Scarlets (21-17) and the Ospreys (33-22), either side of a 22-19 win over the Dragons in their last three URC games, Cardiff will be happy to welcome foreign visitors to their fortress. The Blue and Blacks haven’t lost to overseas opposition at home since their 42-22 defeat against the Sharks this time last year.

Benetton, though, will fancy their chances. They’ve won their last three away games in all competitions, following up victories over the Lions (26-18) and Zebre (37-24) with a 38-19 triumph over Lyon last weekend. They also stunned Cardiff 23-22 on their last visit to the Principality Stadium in 2023 to record their first-ever win in this rivalry.

Cardiff would’ve learned from that loss and are in better shape than Benetton at the moment, so they should set the record straight.

Prediction: Cardiff by 5.

Suggested Bet: Benetton +7 at 1.90.