Investec Champions Cup Predictions – Semi-finals

And then there were four.

It’s Ireland versus England in the first of the blockbuster playoffs as Leinster host the Northampton Saints in Dublin on Saturday night before Sunday’s all-French affair between Bordeaux-Begles and Toulouse at Matmut Atlantique.

Leinster v Northampton Saints

When: Saturday, 3 May – 18:30 SAST

For the second year in a row, Irish giants Leinster and reigning Premiership champions Northampton meet in the semi-finals.

Last season’s showdown between them saw 82,300 rugby-loving spectators fill the iconic Croke Park, setting the record for an EPCR match, with the number of fans inside eclipsing even the 2023 World Cup final crowd. The Leinster supporters went home happy after their team raced into a 20-3 lead and held on for a 20-17 win.

Fast forward to the present and Leinster appear unstoppable. The ‘real’ Leinster that is, not the understrength side that suffered a 35-22 away loss to the Scarlets in the United Rugby Championship last weekend. The ‘real’ Leinster are undefeated in all competitions this season and racked up eight tries in their 52-0 whitewash of the Glasgow Warriors in the quarter-finals.

Winning by the second-highest margin ever in a Champions Cup quarter-final underscored Leinster’s dominance in this campaign. The Irish side have now scored 142 unanswered points, following their 62-0 humiliation of Harlequins in the Round of 16.

Looking to reach the final for the first time since 2011, the Saints surged past Castres 51-16 in the quarters. Player of the Tournament nominee Henry Pollock scored two of their seven tries with Alex Mitchell and Fin Smith showing excellent control. That trio will have to fire on all cylinders for the English underdogs.

Ultimately, though, Leinster’s complete game should see them march into their fourth successive final.

Prediction: Leinster by 14.
Suggested Bet: Northampton Saints +21 at 1.90.

Bordeaux-Begles v Toulouse

When: Sunday, 4 May – 16:00 SAST

It’s a French cracker, the top-ranked team hosting the defending champions, neither of whom have tasted defeat in this campaign. They’re also the two leading teams in the TOP 14, where Toulouse hold a 10-point lead over second-placed Bordeaux.

Looking back at the quarter-finals, Bordeaux banked an impressive 47-29 victory at home, despite a big fightback from Munster in the second half. Player of the Tournament nominee Damian Penaud opened the scoring with his 12th try of the season, a new all-time single-competition record, and although Munster outscored the hosts 19-18 in the second half, the damage had already been done.

In the closest of the quarter-final matches, Toulouse just managed to extend their reign as champions with a last-gasp 21-18 away triumph over Toulon. Trailing 12–6 at the break, Toulouse had to dig down deep and scored twice but the hosts battled back, with two more Melvyn Jaminet penalty goals levelling the scores at 18–18. In a dramatic finish, Thomas Ramos kept his nerve to slot a penalty goal in the final play of the match for the win.

Bordeaux will have to produce an 80-minute performance if they want to book their place in the decider. They’ve shown they’re capable of doing that, and beating Toulouse, as they’ve won the last two ties between the sides. They triumphed 16-12 on the road last September and backed it up with a 32-24 win in March.

Toulouse aren’t quite the beast they usually are without injured general Antoine Dupont, so I fancy Bordeaux, especially as underdogs, to edge it in their backyard.

Prediction: Bordeaux-Begles by 2.
Suggested Bet: Bordeaux-Begles at 2.50.