Investec Champions Cup Predictions – Round 4

After a winless Round Three, the three representatives of the Republic are in do-or-die mode, hoping to avoid the same forlorn fate as last season, when they all failed to qualify for the Round of 16.

The Stormers are Mzanzi’s best bet of having a team in the knockouts as they host the Leicester Tigers on Saturday. Before the clash in Cape Town are must-win games for the Bulls and Sharks at Stade du Hameau and Kings Park, where they come up against Pau (on Friday night) and Clermont (on Saturday afternoon) respectively.

Pau v Bulls

Friday, 16 January – 22:00

After things went from bad to worse last weekend for the beleaguered Bulls, with the 61-49 lashing by Bristol at Loftus Versfeld stretching their losing streak in all competitions to seven, it’s hard to believe they still have a slim chance to feature in the playoffs.

To do so, they have to beat Pau, who are second in the TOP 14 and coming off their first win of this campaign, a 47-38 away triumph over the Scarlets, to move into fourth (the last qualifying place) on five points, three ahead of the last-placed Bulls.

A win wouldn’t guarantee qualification for the Bulls, though, as that would come down to how the Scarlets, fifth on two points with a point difference buffer of 31 over Johan Ackermann’s men, fare against the already qualified Northampton Saints.

Completely out of sorts with major defensive issues, the Bulls’ woes will unfortunately continue in this game, but they should at least put up a better showing than last weekend’s horror show.

Prediction: Pau by 12.

Suggested Bet: Pau -10 at 1.90.

Bath v Edinburgh

Friday, 16 January – 22:00

Bath ran in six tries to claim a 43-20 bonus-point win over Castres last Friday, while Edinburgh completed a stunning second-half comeback to edge Gloucester 26-24 and also take five points.

These results leave Bath (11) and Edinburgh (10) first and second in Pool 2, setting up a blockbuster showdown between them – a rematch of last season’s EPCR Challenge Cup semi-final – with knockout qualification in the pool still wide open.

Johann van Graan’s PREM champions have been on a mission to secure top spot in their pool and make a serious run at the title, and they’ll complete phase one with a convincing win here.

Prediction: Bath by 18.

Suggested Bet: Edinburgh +19 at 1.90.

Sharks v Clermont

Saturday, 17 January – 15:00

After a second-string Sharks side put up a valiant fight in the 26-10 loss to the Sale Sharks in Manchester last weekend, the management team will probably feel they missed a trick.

Had they sent a stronger side and won the game, they would’ve been fourth in Pool 1 instead of fifth with five points, all of which came from their lone 28-23 win at home over Saracens.

Two points behind fourth-placed Toulouse, the Sharks now need a win and for Sale to beat Toulouse in order to sneak into the playoffs. The Durbanites should do their bit easily, as they’ll have their Springboks back and are playing winless Clermont, who are out of playoff contention and are subsequently fielding a weakened team.

Prediction: Sharks by 28.

Suggested Bet: Sharks -26 at 1.90.

Bayonne v Leinster

Saturday, 17 January – 17:15

Leinster left it late in a Dublin classic last weekend, as Harry Byrne’s penalty goal in the 81st minute edged them past La Rochelle 25-24 and secured them a spot in the knockouts in dramatic fashion.

The Irish giants top Pool 3 with three straight wins and will have no problems dispatching last-placed Bayonne, who are winless and coming off a 57-14 loss to Leicester.

Prediction: Leinster by 25.

Suggested Bet: Leinster -21 at 1.90.

Stormers v Leicester Tigers

Saturday, 17 January – 17:15

After their London mission failed spectacularly with their mix-and-match team put to the sword by Harlequins, the Stormers went from sitting pretty to dropping to third place in Pool 3 on nine points.

Pool leaders Leinster (14 log points) and Harlequins (11) have already qualified for the playoffs, while La Rochelle (six) and Leicester (five) are left having to scrap for the other two qualifying spots, along with the Stormers.

Last Sunday’s 61-10 hiding would’ve been a shock to the previously unbeaten Stormers’ system, with the Capetonians – who started their campaign with wins over Bayonne (26-17) and La Rochelle (42-21) – now finding themselves in a shootout for a playoff place.

After their disastrous start last Sunday forced them to abandon the kicking game that served them so well since the start of the season, it’ll be back to business on Saturday. Springbok stars, including Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Cobus Reinach and Evan Roos, will be back and fresh, as will the red-hot Paul de Villiers, and they’ll revert to playing the percentages.

The Tigers have their tails up after banking their first win in the competition with a 57-14 mauling of Bayonne last weekend, but the real Stormers will stand up and return to winning ways to advance to the last 16.

Prediction: Stormers by 19.

Suggested Bet: Leicester Tigers +21 at 1.90.

Toulouse v Sale Sharks

Saturday, 17 January – 19:30

At the start of the tournament, no one would’ve foreseen Toulouse having to fight for survival in the final round of the pool stage.

The six-time champions smashed the Sharks 56-19 but have dropped both of their away games to Glasgow (28-21) and Saracens (20-14), leaving them fourth in Pool 1.

A third loss here would shockingly see them fail to advance to the playoffs, but this is a different story as they’re playing at home, where they’ve lost just one of their last 23 games and are on an 11-match winning streak.

Sale, who are already through to the last 16, did their fellow Sharks in last weekend, and they won’t do the Durbanites a favour in this one either.

Prediction: Toulouse by 22.

Suggested Bet: Sale Sharks +34 at 1.90.

Munster v Castres

Saturday, 17 January – 19:30

Munster oh so nearly pipped Toulon away from home last weekend, which would’ve strengthened their playoff bid. The 27-25 loss left them fourth in Pool 2 on six points, tied with Gloucester (who they thumped 31-3) but with a superior points difference.

Last-placed Castres are still in with a shout of making the playoffs on five points, but the reality is that Munster should maul the French side, who lost by 20 away to Gloucester and by 23 at home to Bath last weekend.

Prediction: Munster by 25.

Suggested Bet: Munster -23 at 1.90.

Gloucester v Toulon

Saturday, 17 January – 22:00

One of the things that separates top teams from the rest is their ability to find a way to win. Toulon demonstrated just that last weekend, with a late Marius Domon penalty goal seeing them snatch a two-point win over Munster.

In contrast, Gloucester’s inability to close out their game against Edinburgh last weekend saw them squander a commanding halftime lead and go down 26-24 in the Scottish capital.

The English outfit have now lost five in a row in all competitions, and even though their visitors have a poor touring record, Toulon are in a different class and will triumph with some breathing room.  

Prediction: Toulon by 10.

Suggested Bet: Toulon -9 at 1.90.

Bristol Bears v Bordeaux-Begles

Sunday, 18 January – 15:00

Top spot in Pool 4 is on the line in this battle of unbeaten teams. Pool leaders Bordeaux-Begles have a one-point advantage over their second-placed hosts going into the game, and will have a proper fight on their hands.

After blowing a Springbok-laden Bulls team away at Loftus Versfeld last weekend, the Bears are daring to dream of a title run in the European top-flight. Currently on a seven-game winning streak in all competitions, Pat Lam’s charges will find out exactly how they stack up against Europe’s elite against the defending Champions Cup champions on Sunday.

Last weekend’s rematch of last season’s final saw Bordeaux run rampant, crossing the try line eight times to overwhelm the Saints at a sold-out Stade Chaban-Delmas. The 50-28 triumph was a real statement by the French powerhouses, who have the strength upfront and unrivalled backline brilliance to hold onto their top spot.

Prediction: Bordeaux-Begles by 9.

Suggested Bet: Bordeaux-Begles -7 at 1.90.

Northampton Saints v Scarlets

Sunday, 18 January – 17:15

Last weekend’s 22-point beating at the hands of Bordeaux would’ve come as a big disappointment for Northampton, but on the plus side, they did secure a four-try bonus point, enough to ensure them of a place in the last 16.

And, with the top two teams in Pool 4, Bristol and Bordeaux facing off, the Saints could move up from third to second with a win over their Welsh visitors.

The Scarlets were always going to struggle in the premier club competition in the world. Winless and beaten 38-49 in their backyard by Pau last weekend, they’ll be no match for last season’s runners-up.

Prediction: Northampton Saints by 30.

Suggested Bet: Scarlets +34 at 1.90.

La Rochelle v Harlequins

Sunday, 18 January – 17:15

Similar to Toulouse, not many would’ve predicted that La Rochelle would be on the bubble in fourth place in Pool 3 going into the last pool round.

By sending a weakened team to Cape Town and suffering a heart-breaking loss in Dublin, the two-time champions have just a 39-20 win over the Tigers to their name.

Harlequins, meanwhile, ended the Stormers’ unbeaten run in all competitions this season with a nine-try win, which sent them into the Round of 16.

Quins, who also battered Bayonne 68-14, aren’t as formidable when they play full-strength teams, as their 45-28 loss to Leinster showed, so bank on a La Rochelle win.

Prediction: La Rochelle by 16.

Suggested Bet: Harlequins +23 at 1.90.

Glasgow Warriors v Saracens

Sunday, 18 January – 19:30

Glasgow are full value for their No. 1 spot in Pool 1, having claimed maximum log points in their wins over the Scarlets (26-23), Toulouse (28-23) and Clermont (33-21).

Overtaking Pool 4 leaders Bordeaux, who are also on 15 but have a superior points’ difference of 40, to enter the playoffs as the top seeds may be out of their reach, but the Warriors will look to cement second place overall. 

Saracens are big-time players and are high on confidence after their 20-14 win over Toulouse last weekend. However, Franco Smith’s side should be strong enough at home to finish the pool stage unbeaten. 

Prediction: Glasgow Warriors by 5.

Suggested Bet: Saracens +8 at 1.90.