EPCR Challenge Cup Final Prediction – Bath v Lyon

Bath didn’t start out this year’s tournament from the get-go. It was a fifth-placed pool finish in their Investec Champions Cup campaign which saw them funnelled into the competition – an opportunity they’ve grabbed with open arms, expertly progressing through the knockouts to reach the final.

It was imperative that the English side started the knockouts strongly as they adjusted to life in a new competition and that’s exactly what they did as they pummelled Pau 49-24 on the road to secure a ticket for the quarters. A return to The Rec was on the cards as they welcomed neighbours Gloucester for a memorable West Country derby, which saw them run out 61-26 winners.

A trip north to Scotland to take on Edinburgh in the semi-final topped off their run in to the final. The English side made light work of a side who’d impressed with a double-South African giant-killing in the previous two rounds, leaving the Scottish capital with a 39-24 win and a place in the final at Principality Stadium.

While Bath have won the top-flight Investec Champions Cup in the past, it’s in the Challenge Cup that they’ve really come into their own. With one win and three more finals under their belts, their experience in the business-end of the competition speaks for itself.

First reaching the final in 2003, Wasps were the ones to put an end to any maiden title dreams. A fall at the final hurdle would befall Bath once again in 2007 when they lost their second bite of the cherry to Clermont 22-16.

But good things come to those who wait and it was the following season, 2008, that the English side would lift the silverware for the first time. Overcoming Worcester 24-16 at Kingsholm Stadium, Bath engraved their name on the trophy and into the history books.

They were to make it a hat-trick of runners-up medals in 2014 as well when Northampton Saints proved stronger on the day (30-16) at Cardiff Arms Park. So while Friday’s final is Bath’s fifth on the Challenge Cup stage, it will serve as another shot at a second trophy – the same situation opponents Lyon face.

But unlike Bath, the French side will be looking to make it two from two after they won their maiden Challenge Cup title at the first time of asking in 2022, toppling Toulon 30-12.

Overcoming Cardiff (37-26), Zebre (21-19) and the Cheetahs (68-21) in the pool stages, Lyon qualified out of a demanding pool to propel themselves in the knockouts.

They ended the Sharks’ historic reign with a 34-21 win in the Round 16 and backed that up a week later in south Wales where they edged the Ospreys 18-20 before finishing their final run in with a convincing 29-15 win over fellow TOP 14 side Racing 92 in the semi-final.

In the bigger scheme of things, Lyon have done well to reach the final considering they’re having a dreadful TOP 14 season. They’re in lowly 11th place and coming off back-to-back losses to Pau (29-27) and Stade Francais (31-30).

Bath, on the other hand, are hunting a historic treble. Johann van Graan’s men have already completed phase one of their hostile takeover by capturing the Premiership Rugby Cup, while they’ve qualified for the Premiership playoffs in top spot and are heavy favourites on Friday.

They’re operating at a different level than Lyon and should hold their nerve to seal the silverware. 

Prediction: Bath by 11.

Suggested Bet: Lyon +12 at 1.90.