EPCR Challenge Cup Predictions – Round 3

Stuck at the bottom of their respective pools, the two South African sides have to come good in Round Three to have any hope of reaching the playoffs.

The men from Johannesburg welcome Lyon to Ellis Park on Saturday, while the Free Staters face Ulster at their Amsterdam ‘home’ base on Sunday.

Stade Francais v Exeter Chiefs

Saturday, 10 January – 15:00

Kicking off Round Three is a fascinating match-up between two high-flyers.

Unbeaten at home since last April, Stade Francais have started their European campaign on a perfect note.

The Parisians top Pool 1 on 10 points with wins over Cardiff (38-17) and the Cheetahs (45-22).

The Exeter Chiefs are second on eight points after a 42-12 win over the Cheetahs and a 31-all draw with Racing 92.

They have shown impressive form in the English PREM this term as the Devonshire side have toppled several of the big names.

However, Stade Francais should keep their stellar home run going.

Prediction: Stade Francais by 3.

Montauban v Black Lion

Saturday, 10 January – 15:00

Desperation will drive these two teams as they seek to break their ducks.

Back on the European stage after 15 long years, Montauban have found the going tough with losses to Zebre (41-7) and the Ospreys (33-22). They’ve also won just one of their last 16 games in all competitions, and their losing streak currently stands at eight.

Even though Black Lion have struggled mightily since first being included in the Challenge Cup as an invitational team in 2023, they do have the edge in experience, and that should prove decisive in a clash both teams would’ve targeted from the start.

Prediction: Black Lion by 4.

Newcastle Red Bulls v Perpignan

Saturday, 10 January – 15:00

The Red Bulls will look to go three from three.

The new takeover has had an instant impact on the side in the Challenge Cup as Lyon were the first to fall. They went on to beat the Lions in Round Two as well.

As for the French outfit, they grabbed a 41-17 first-round win over the Dragons. However, their trip to Treviso showed they’re not as formidable on the road as they fell 44-31 to Benetton.

This game should play out much like that previous match for Perpignan.

Prediction: Newcastle Red Bulls by 10.

Lions v Lyon

Saturday, 10 January – 17:15

This Challenge Cup campaign has been a real let-down from the Lions, losing both of their opening games that they could and should have won.

First, there was the 26-18 home loss to Benetton, followed by the 14-10 away defeat to Newcastle. In both cases, they dominated for the most part, but their inability to close out games cost them dearly.

That trend almost continued in their United Rugby Championship derby against the Sharks last weekend. After a perfect start, the Pride surrendered a 15-point lead, however, Junior Springbok star Haashim Pead’s last-gasp try secured a famous and timely 23-22 win for the Lions, snapping a three-match losing streak in all competitions.

Runners-up last season, Lyon have gone from title contenders to pretenders this season, coming up short against Newcastle (23-14) and the Dragons (23-21).

They, too, got a welcome win on the domestic front, beating Pau 22-17, but with the heat and Highveld factors, Ivan van Rooyen’s troops should triumph.

Prediction: Lions by 7.

Cardiff v Racing 92

Saturday, 10 January – 17:15

After a 21-point loss in Paris, Cardiff showed what they’re really capable of with a three-point win over Ulster in Round Two.

Racing, meanwhile, were thrashed 61-7 by the self-same Ulster and remain winless after their 31-all draw with the Exeter Chiefs.

Cardiff are having an impressive URC season, and with the Welsh side having won seven of their last eight home fixtures, they should win convincingly.

Prediction: Cardiff by 17.

Benetton v Dragons

Saturday, 10 January – 19:30

The Dragons are on an impressive run of form going into the weekend.

As well as coming back from 6-21 down against Lyon in Round Two for their first win in 2025, they backed that up straight away with two domestic wins before the New Year.

They head to Benetton on Saturday to face an Italian side who went two from two in December.

Their 26-18 win at Ellis Park was a real statement of intent, and the subsequent 44-31 victory over Perpignan sees them at the top of Pool 2.

With a slow start costing them a 15-14 home defeat to Edinburgh in the URC last weekend, Benetton will be better out of the blocks and should bank the W.

Prediction: Benetton by 12.

Montpellier v Connacht

Sunday, 11 January – 15:00

The pacesetters in Pool 1, Montpellier play host to third-placed Connacht looking to preserve their lofty position.

They claimed maximum points from their wins over Black Lion (24-13) and Zebre, but with the Ospreys breathing down their necks, the French side know they need to be at their best this weekend.

After a three-point defeat at the Ospreys, Connacht cashed in with a 52-0 whitewash of Black Lion. However, they’ve lost three straight URC games since and should fall short here.

Prediction: Montpellier by 7.

Zebre v Ospreys

Sunday, 11 January – 15:00

As mentioned above, the Ospreys are pushing Montpellier hard for top spot in Pool 1. They’re also on 10 points following wins over Connacht (24-21) and Montauban (33-22), and are second on points’ difference.

Zebre have fallen into a four-game losing streak in all competitions since their 41-17 campaign-opening win over Montauban. Despite this, the Ospreys won’t take them lightly, knowing they lost their last game in Parma 22-17 in 2024.

Thus, the fully focused Ospreys stand to win rather comfortably.

Prediction: Ospreys by 13.

Cheetahs v Ulster

Sunday, 11 January – 17:15

It’s been a downright miserable campaign for the Cheetahs, who have zero points to show for their efforts after heavy losses to Exeter (42-12) and Stade Francais (45-22).

The luckless Free Staters just can’t catch a break as they come up against an Ulster team who’re looking like possible title contenders. The Irish outfit romped to a 61-7 rout against Racing 92 and pushed Cardiff close in a 29-26 defeat.

Ulster are a well-oiled machine who’re doing big things in the URC and a team with a stop-start schedule like the Cheetahs, who also don’t have real home ground advantage, will find it extremely difficult to hold a candle to them.

Unfortunately for Frans Steyn and his side, the writing’s on the wall, but the Storm Goretti factor could limit the damage Ulster does.

Prediction: Ulster by 12.