UFC Fight Night: Walker v Zhang Predictions

The co-headliner at the Shanghai Indoor Stadium will see former bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling square off against Brian Ortega in a clash of elite 145-pounders, while top-10 heavyweights Sergei Pavlovich and Waldo Cortes-Acosta trade leather in the featured bout.

Plus, local standouts Sumudaerji and Taiyilake Nueraji will look to shine against Kevin Borjas and Kiefer Crosbie, respectively.

MAIN CARD:                                                                                             

When: Sunday, August 23, 12 PM SAST

Johnny Walker (3.40) v Zhang Mingyang (1.30) (Light Heavyweight)

When it comes to the main event, it’s simple – don’t blink.

These are two pure predators out for blood. Big, athletic, and lethal light heavyweights, they have 19 finishes apiece. More impressively than that, Walker (21-9) has 17 first-round stoppages, while Zhang (19-6) has a 100% finish rate and is hunting his 20th first-round win in front of his home crowd.

A staple in the light heavyweight top 15, Walker is looking to snap a two-fight losing skid. The Brazilian had won three fights on the bounce before he was knocked out by current champion Magomed Ankalaev and former title challenger Volkan Oezdemir in his last two bouts.

A towering and rangy striker, No. 14-ranked Walker is the tallest light heavyweight in the UFC at 6’6″. He’s dynamic and will look to make the most of his six-and-a-half-inch reach advantage, as well as his experience of having faced higher-calibre opposition.

That said, this is a tall order for the struggling 33-year-old. With his back against the wall, he’ll likely come out swinging looking to pull off the upset.

China’s Zhang is on a nine-fight win streak dating back to 2020, with three of those wins coming inside the Octagon. Last time out, “The Mountain Tiger” levelled up and made light work of Anthony Smith in the former title challenger’s retirement fight to break into the top 15.

At 27 years old, he’s an ultra-explosive striker and will have a significant speed advantage. Whereas Walker is wild and unpredictable, Zhang mixes patience, power, and precision. His striking is much crisper than his veteran foe’s, while he also has better combinations.

Add one of Zhang’s biggest strengths, his ability to close the distance in the blink of an eye, and Walker’s bad habit of leaving his chin in the air at times, and the local favourite should score the biggest win of his career and send the fans home happy.

Prediction: Zhang by knockout.

Best Bet: Zhang in round one at 1.80.

Alternative Bet: Zhang by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.40.

Brian Ortega (3.10) v Aljamain Sterling (1.35) (Featherweight)

Styles make fights, and Saturday’s co-main event is a compelling clash of a jiu-jitsu ace in Ortega (16-4) and a world-class wrestler in Sterling (24-5). And, with both men stationed in the featherweight top 10 and seeking to bounce back from defeats, the stakes are high.

A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with eight submissions to his name, Ortega is like an octopus on the mat. “T-City” is extremely slick and dangerous on top and off his back, while his stand-up is ever-improving. However, he hasn’t been the same since he challenged Max Holloway for the title in 2018.

“Blessed” beat him from pillar to post before the doctor stopped the fight in the fourth round, and he’s 2-3 since. Last time out, he suffered another brutal loss to Diego Lopes last September, so he’ll welcome facing a wrestler this time around.

Former bantamweight champion Sterling jumped straight into the deep end when he made the move up to 145 pounds last year. “The Funk Master” used his excellent wrestling to control Calvin Kattar en route to a decision win in April, but fell to 1-1 when he lost on points to the undefeated Movsar Evloev in December.

A slick grappler with eight tapout wins of his own, Sterling knows about jiu-jitsu, not just wrestling. Thus, with him being the stronger athlete, having a wrestling background, and knowing how to stay safe on top, I see Sterling grounding Ortega, who’s two spots above him in the rankings in fourth place, and grinding out the win.

Prediction: Sterling by decision.

Best Bet: Sterling by decision (check markets).

Sergei Pavlovich (1.40) v Waldo Cortes-Acosta (2.85) (Heavyweight)

Will a Russian hitman return to form, or will a rising contender from the Dominican Republic dance on his grave in this titanic tussle between top 10 heavyweights?

Third-ranked Pavlovich (19-3) was the scariest man in the entire UFC not that long ago, having strung together six first-round knockout wins to take his KO tally to 15 and earn a shot at the interim title against Tom Aspinall in 2023.

He was stopped early in the fight and was upset by fellow countryman Alexander Volkov in his only outing last year. And, while he got back on track with a decision win over Jairzinho Rozenstruik in February, he wasn’t the beast of old.

Cortes-Acosta (14-1), in contrast, is high on momentum. He’s on a five-fight win streak, with his most recent triumph being a decision victory over Sergey Spivak. “Salsa Boy” is a technical striker with good footwork rather than a knockout artist like his adversary, and has climbed up to sixth in the rankings.

However, he hasn’t faced the very best in the 265-pound division like Pavlovich. Given the step-up and Pavlovich’s ridiculous 14-inch reach advantage, all signs point to the Russian standing tall.

Prediction: Pavlovich by knockout.

Best Bet: Pavlovich by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.95.

Sumudaerji (1.55) v Kevin Borjas (2.40) (Flyweight)

As a matchup between two strikers with devastating power for flyweights, this could easily be labelled a shootout, but it’s more nuanced than that.

Local favourite Sumudaerji (17-7) is a bird of prey in that he uses his lanky frame to pick his opponent apart and then swoops in for the kill. “The Tibetan Eagle” boasts 13 knockout wins and arrested a three-fight skid with a split decision victory over Mitch Raposo in April.

Borjas (10-3 with eight knockouts) is piston-like with his speed and movement, and considering he’s facing a four-inch reach disadvantage, he’ll have to be sharp to safely close the distance. Fighting out of Peru, he lost his first two tilts inside the Octagon before coming good against Ronaldo Rodriguez in March.

Sumudaerji is a seven-year UFC veteran, while Borjas is unproven three fights into his time in the promotion. Therefore, the safe bet is on Sumudaerji to use his veteran savviness to secure the win.

Prediction: Sumudaerji by decision.

Best Bet: Sumudaerji at 1.55.

Alternative Bet: Sumudaerji by decision at 2.20.

Taiyilake Nueraji (1.22) v Kiefer Crosbie (4.00) (Welterweight)

The spotlight will be on Nueraji (11-1) in the main card opener as the exciting Chinese prospect makes his UFC debut.

The 24-year-old is a lethal southpaw who puts heaps of pressure on opponents with his high-volume striking. It’s proven highly effective on the regional circuit as he not only brings a five-fight win streak but also a 100% finish rate into his big shot on Saturday.

It’s taken Irish veteran Crosbie (10-5) much longer to make it to the UFC. At 35, he’s two fights into his term and yet to taste victory inside the Octagon. He’s a switch-hitter and will rely on his craftiness.

It’s a big moment for “Super Saiyan”, but one he’s relishing, and with him being in a different speed category than his veteran foe, he looks set to take him out.

Prediction: Nueraji by knockout.

Best Bet: Nueraji by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.60.