UFC Fight Night Oliveira v Gamrot Predictions

Oliveira leads a small Brazilian army consisting of Deiveson Figueiredo, Vicente Luque, Jhonata Diniz, Ricardo Ramos, and Lucas Almeida into battle on the main card.

Figueiredo faces Montel Jackson at bantamweight, Luque locks horns with Joel Alvarez at welterweight, and Diniz meets Mario Pinto at heavyweight. Ramos and Almeida both compete at featherweight and will face Kaan Ofli and Michael Aswell, respectively.

MAIN CARD:

When: Sunday, October 12, 1 AM SAST

Charles Oliveira (1.90) v Mateusz Gamrot (1.85) (Lightweight)

Home is where the heart is, and for Oliveira (35-11), his homecoming is an opportunity to put his title heartbreak behind him.

“Do Bronx” looked to become the first two-time UFC lightweight champion when he battled Ilia Topuria for the vacant 155-pound belt in July, but was brutally knocked out by the unbeaten phenom.

The veteran, now ranked fourth, still feels he has plenty of fight left in him, and where better to bounce back than on home soil?

When Oliveira last fought in Brazil, he submitted Kevin Lee by guillotine choke, but that bout came in an empty arena due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The last time Oliveira fought in front of a Brazilian crowd came in November 2019 when he knocked out Jared Gordon in the first round. Overall, he’s 6-0 fighting in his home country under the UFC banner.

A future first-ballot Hall of Famer, Oliveira is the UFC’s apex predator, boasting the most finishes and most submissions in UFC history with 20 and 16, respectively. He also has the most performance bonuses in company history with 19.

The Brazilian icon broke through by becoming champion when he stopped Michael Chandler in 2021, and is as dangerous on the feet as he is on the ground. He has alternated wins and losses in his last six fights, but it’s worth noting that he has faced the very best, with those losses coming against Islam Makhachev, Arman Tsarukyan, and Topuria.

Having beaten the likes of Dustin Poirier, Justin Gaethje, and Tony Ferguson, his strength of schedule is as impressive as they come, and on a different level than his opponent’s. 

Gamrot (25-3) lived up to his “Gamer” moniker when Oliveira’s original opponent, Rafael Fiziev, was forced to withdraw due to injury. The Polish fighter immediately put his hand up to step in on short notice, and got his wish.

After sitting on the shelf for nine months, Gamrot returned to action in May, scoring a decision win over Ludovit Klein. He’s 4-1 in his last five fights, with his only loss coming by split decision to Dan Hooker.

A relentless wrestler, he’s worked his way up to eighth in the rankings and now faces the biggest test of his career. Stylistically, he’s the complete opposite of Fiziev, the man he replaces, but a veteran like Oliveira has seen it all and should be able to adapt.

Coming in on short notice, i.e. without a full training camp, is always a gamble, but this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for Gamrot to take down a legend and break into the top five in one fell swoop. His cardio is usually one of his biggest strengths, though, so I do wonder how full his gas tank is going into this one.

Surprisingly, Oliveira opened as a 2.10 underdog. This must mainly have been down to him making such a quick turnaround after a knockout loss. Gamrot isn’t as dangerous as Fiziev, so the risk of Oliveira having to withstand serious damage has gone down. Add his prolific finishing ability, and Oliveira should prevail.

Prediction: Oliveira by stoppage.

Best Bet: Oliveira by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 2.30

Alternative Bets: Oliveira at 1.90 or by KO/TKO/DQ at 4.75.

Deiveson Figueiredo (3.45) v Montel Jackson (1.30) (Bantamweight)

Like the main event, the co-headliner pits a decorated former champion against an ascending talent.

Former flyweight champion Figueiredo (24-5-1) started his mission to conquer a second division by rattling off three straight wins in his new home at bantamweight.

However, he then dropped a decision to ex-135-pound king Petr Yan and fell to recent title challenger Cory Sandhagen due to injury in May.

Still ranked sixth, “Deus da Guerra” looks to get back on track and solidify his place in the bantamweight elite.

Jackson (15-2) is on a tear. He’s strung together a six-fight win streak, which includes a decision victory over South Africa’s JP Buys. Last time out, he outworked Daniel Marcos to position himself at No. 15 in the rankings.

“Quik” is a southpaw striker with eight knockouts to his name and is exceptionally tall and rangy for a bantamweight. He’ll have a five-inch height and seven-and-a-half-inch reach advantage over Figueiredo.

No one really knows how Figueiredo will look in his first fight back from injury, but if he’s even close to the fighter he was, he’s too good an underdog to pass up on, especially considering Jackson has never fought anyone close to his level.

As good on the feet as he is on the ground, Figueiredo’s well-roundedness and pedigree should propel him to victory.

Prediction: Figueiredo by decision.

Best Bet: Figueiredo at 3.45.

Alternative Bet: Figueiredo by decision (check markets).

Vicente Luque (4.75) v Joel Alvarez (1.18) (Welterweight)

Natural-born killers will go to war in the featured bout.

Luque (23-11-1) has claimed all but three of his wins by stoppage (11 knockouts and nine submissions), while Alvarez (22-3) boasts a remarkable 100% finishing rate (five knockouts and 17 submissions), so it’s safe to say the judges won’t be needed in this one.

Once looking like a contender, Luque is now past his prime and has lost four of his last six fights, most recently being submitted by Kevin Holland in June.

Alvarez aims to swoop in and make a splash in his welterweight debut. “El Fenomeno” replaces the injured Santiago Ponzinibbio on short notice and is on a three-fight win streak.

If you’re worried about him moving up in weight, don’t be. The Spaniard missed the mark at lightweight in his last two fights and is actually bigger than Luque, so the switch was just a matter of time.

Alvarez holds all the advantages, so as long as he’s not reckless, he’s set to take out “The Silent Assassin”.

Prediction: Alvarez by knockout.

Best Bet: Alvarez by KO/TKO/DQ (check markets).

Jhonata Diniz (1.75) v Mario Pinto (2.05) (Heavyweight)

Heavyweights will bring the heat as Brazil’s Diniz (9-1) looks to bounce his opponent from the ranks of the unbeaten.

A former kickboxer, Diniz gutted it out and earned a decision win over Alvin Hines last time out to take his UFC record to 3-1.

It was just his second time winning on the scorecards, as he usually triumphs by knockout. His Octagon experience makes him a slight favourite.

Pinto didn’t have it all his own way but ultimately knocked out Austen Lane in his UFC debut in February. The Portuguese pugilist is a perfect 10-0 with six knockouts and one submission.

I was not impressed by Pinto, who looked really raw in that victory, so I’m expecting the more refined Diniz to get it done.

Prediction: Diniz by knockout.

Best Bet: Diniz at 1.75.

Alternative Bet: Diniz by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.75.

Ricardo Ramos (1.53) v Kaan Ofli (2.45) (Featherweight)

Desperation will fuel these featherweights when they meet inside the Octagon this weekend.

Ramos (17-7), who last fought on home soil when he tapped out Luiz Eduardo Garagorri in his 145-pound debut six years ago, has struggled as of late.

“Carcacinha” is 1-3 in his last four fights, and in a what have you done for me lately business like the fight game, he might be fighting for his job.

Ofli (11-4-1) is out to pick up his first win in the UFC. He made it to the final on Season 32 of The Ultimate Fighter, defeating Nathan Fletcher and South African Roedie Roets, but lost out to Mairon Santos.

More disappointment followed for “Genghis” as he came up short in his promotional debut in February, losing on points to Muhammad Naimov. 

Unlike the Turk, Ramos has had some success in the UFC, and his experience should carry him to a crucial win in this one.

Prediction: Ramos by decision.

Best Bet: Ramos by decision (check markets).

Alternative Bet: Fight to go the distance at 1.85.

Lucas Almeida (2.20) v Michael Aswell (1.65) (Featherweight)

The main card opener promises to be a slugfest as these two featherweights look to thrill on the feet.

Almeida (15-4) enjoyed a dream UFC debut when he knocked out former Ultimate Fighter winner Michael Trizano in 2022 but has struggled to push on, winning just one of his four fights since.

He not only lost his last fight but also missed weight, so he’s under considerable pressure.

Aswell (10-3) did the UFC a solid by filling a gap on short notice and fighting up a weight class in his promotional debut in May. He didn’t come away with the win but put up a hell of a fight against Bolaji Oki, leaving one excited for his future.

At this stage, Aswell has more upside and having had a full training camp and being back down in his natural weight class, “Texas Kid” should triumph.

Prediction: Aswell by decision.

Best Bet: Aswell at 1.65.

Alternative Bet: Aswell by decision at 2.37.