UFC Fight Night: Dolidze v Hernandez Predictions

Former flyweight title challenger Steve Erceg collides with Ode Osbourne in the co-headliner, while strawweights Iasmin Lucindo and Angela Hill square off in the featured bout.

Plus, Miles Johns takes on Jean Matsumoto at 135 pounds, Andre Fili faces Christian Rodriguez at 145 pounds, and Eryk Anders clashes with Christian Leroy Duncan at 185 pounds.

MAIN CARD:                                                                                             

When: Sunday, August 10, 1 AM SAST

Roman Dolidze (3.60) v Anthony Hernandez (1.28) (Middleweight)

Members of the middleweight top 10, this weekend’s headliners are on a roll, but only one will continue to build a head of steam.

Dolidze (15-3) heads into his third main event on a three-fight win streak and kicked off his 2025 campaign with a decision victory over former title challenger Marvin Vettori in March.

“The Caucasian” is a powerful brawler with dangerous and at times unpredictable blitzes. He’s known for his physicality and explosiveness, and as a former light heavyweight, he packs a serious punch and has eight wins by knockout. Ranked ninth, he has slick grappling as well, but the Georgian won’t want to play the ground game with Hernandez (14-2).

Hernandez is red-hot, having put together a remarkable seven-fight win streak to move up to 10th in the rankings. He took the next step in his career by beating Brendan Allen in his first main event in February and is heavily favoured to continue his winning ways.

“Fluffy” weaponizes his cardio and fights at a high pace. He’s a relentless grappler who doesn’t give an opponent time to breathe and boasts eight wins by submission. His chain wrestling is exhausting, his striking is underrated, and he has a high fight IQ.

With Dolidze tending to fade as a fight goes on, expect Hernandez to increase the pace round-by-round and control things with his superior grappling en route to a decision victory.   

Prediction: Hernandez by decision.

Best Bet: Hernandez by decision at 3.10.

Alternative Bet: Fight to go the distance at 2.45.

Steve Erceg (1.16) vs Ode Osbourne (5.00) (Bantamweight)

The road to UFC Vegas 109 has been quite the rollercoaster ride for Erceg (12-4). The Australian ace was originally scheduled to face fellow top-10 flyweight contender Alex Perez. When Perez was ruled out, he was replaced by HyunSung Park, only for the South Korean to be called up to fight in last weekend’s main event against Tatsuro Taira, leaving Erceg with another new opponent at bantamweight.

 “Astro Boy” is eager to kick a three-fight slide. Those came against the current champion, the most recent title challenger, and a former two-time champion at flyweight, so there’s no shame in any of those setbacks. However, a course correction is needed.

Things are looking up for Osbourne (13-8). A UFC veteran, “The Jamaican Sensation” stopped a three-fight losing skid with a TKO win over promotional newcomer Luis Gurule in April and has now been gifted a golden opportunity to score the most high-profile win of his career.

That said, there’s a serious gulf in class between these two, so Erceg should return to the win column with style points. 

Prediction: Erceg by stoppage.

Best Bet: Erceg by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 1.74. 

Iasmin Lucindo (1.48) v Angela Hill (2.65) (Strawweight)

Top-15 strawweights face off in the featured bout.

Lucindo (17-6) has quietly done the remarkable by climbing to No. 8 in the rankings at just 23 years of age thanks to a four-fight win streak. The Brazilian prodigy, however, was cooled down by compatriot Amanda Lemos in March.

Meanwhile, No. 13-ranked Hill (18-14) is one of the most seasoned veterans on the UFC roster. At 40, she’s set to make her 25th Octagon appearance and is still hanging tough.

“Overkill” is used to facing rising stars, as she’s served as the gatekeeper of the division over the last few years, and is 3-1 in her last four fights. Having started her 2025 campaign with a split decision win over Ketlen Souza to rebound from a loss to Tabatha Ricci, she’s out to build momentum.

However, Lucindo has a significant edge when it comes to speed, strength, and athleticism, and should dictate terms to pick up a decision win.

Prediction: Lucindo by decision.

Best Bet: Lucindo by decision at 1.80.

Andre Fili (2.87) v Christian Rodriguez (1.40) (Featherweight)

While these two have different fighting styles and find themselves at different points in their careers, with Fili (24-12) being a veteran and Rodriguez (12-3) still evolving, they do have one thing in common – both lost to Melquizael Costa in their last fight.

A brawler with heavy hands for a featherweight, Fili has long been hampered by inconsistency. “Touchy” has been alternating wins and losses since 2020, and at 35, his best days are behind him.

Rodriguez (12-3) is an all-rounder who, after making an unsuccessful UFC debut, won four straight fights, including claiming a decision victory over South Africa’s Cameron Saaiman in October 2023.

The 27-year-old is 2-2 since then, but should move in the right direction this weekend. For one, he’s never been knocked out, and two, he should overpower the older Fili in the grappling exchanges.

Prediction: Rodriguez by decision.

Best Bet: Rodriguez by decision at 2.10.

Miles Johns (3.45) v Jean Matsumoto (1.28) (Bantamweight)

Like Lucindo, Matsumoto (16-1) is a young gun with plenty of promise looking to recover from a setback. In the 24-year-old’s case, he suffered his first career loss to Rob Font by split decision in February, so all eyes are on him to see how he responds.   

Johns (15-3) lost to Felipe Lima last time out, but that was at flyweight. “Chapo” is unbeaten in his last four bantamweight bouts, so he’s a solid test for Matsumoto.

A journeyman, Johns is a powerful wrestler who should make it a more competitive fight than the line suggests. However, Matsumoto has decent takedown defence and good scrambling. That, along with his speed, footwork, and high volume striking, should see him prevail.

Prediction: Matsumoto by decision.

Best Bet: Matsumoto by decision at 1.80.

Eryk Anders (4.50) v Christian Leroy Duncan (1.18) (Middleweight)

Anders (17-8) heads into the main card opener as a massive underdog despite having won his last two fights.

“Ya Boi” beat Jamie Pickett on points before stopping Chris Weidman in the former champion’s retirement bout. Weidman was nowhere near the fighter he was in his prime, though.

Add the fact that at 38, Anders has lost the explosiveness that served him well earlier in his career, and it’s understandable why he’s facing such long odds.

Twelve years Anders’ junior, Duncan (11-2) is 4-2 in his UFC career and is coming off a decision win over Andrey Pulyaev. The Englishman is a technically sound switch-hitter whose tactical nous, crisp striking, and four-inch reach advantage should see him dance around and outscore his veteran foe.

Prediction: Duncan by decision. 

Best Bet: Duncan by decision at 1.90.