UFC Fight Night: Adesanya v Pyfer Predictions

Former flyweight queen Alexa Grasso meets Maycee Barber in a high-stakes rematch in the co-headliner, while Michael Chiesa makes his final Octagon appearance against Niko Price in the featured bout.

Also on the main card, Julian Erosa and newcomer Lerryan Douglas duke it out at 145 pounds, the unbeaten Mansur Abdul-Malik battles Yousri Belgaroui at middleweight, and Terrance McKinney takes on Kyle Nelson at lightweight.

Israel Adesanya (1.66) v Joe Pyfer (2.15) (Middleweight)

MAIN CARD:

Saturday, March 21, 10:00 PM SAST

With the UFC running events on a near weekly basis, one fight night card can sometimes blend into another, but not this one. UFC Seattle is a special card as it sees the return of the great Adesanya (24-5).

A member of mixed martial arts royalty, Adesanya is the only man in history to win the undisputed 185-pound title twice. Already a Hall of Famer, he’s one of the most sophisticated strikers ever to grace the Octagon and has cemented his legacy as one of the greatest MMA fighters of all time.

Although he’s not long in the tooth at 36, he’s no longer in his prime either, and while he’s still in the middleweight top five, he himself admits he’s no longer in the championship conversation.

You’d have to go back almost three years for the last time “The Last Stylebender” triumphed inside the Octagon. It was one of, if not his greatest career highlight as he finally beat his bogeyman Alex Pereira, knocking “Poatan” out cold to reclaim the title.

A shock loss to Sean Strickland followed and started a three-fight skid for the legend, who was submitted by South Africa’s Dricus du Plessis in probably his last title fight in 2024 before being knocked out by Nassourdine Imavov last February.

More than a year later, the Nigerian-born, New Zealand-bred ace makes his much-anticipated return against a rising star looking for the biggest win of his career.

Four years after impressing UFC CEO Dana White on the Contender Series, Pyfer (15-3) is 6-1 inside the Octagon.

Since dropping a decision to Jack Hermansson in his first main event in 2024, the 29-year-old has picked up three straight wins over Marc-Andre Barriault (knockout), former interim title challenger Kelvin Gastelum (decision) and Abu Magomedov (submission).

With a nickname like “Bodybagz”, it should come as no surprise that the American is a potent predator. He’s finished all but two of his wins (nine knockouts and four submissions) and can propel himself up 10 places to fourth in the rankings with a win over his iconic opponent this weekend. 

This is such a compelling clash, pitting the excellence and elegance of “The Last Stylebender” against the power and brutality of “Bodybagz.” Technically and tactically, Adesanya is vastly superior, whereas Pyfer has one-punch knockout power and a more varied approach, mixing in wrestling and grappling with his striking.

Ultimately, Adesanya should get back on track as long as he avoids getting caught like he did against Imavov. Near or at his best, he’s a master of movement, shot selection and distance management, while he also has great takedown defence.

With a five-inch reach advantage to boot, Adesanya should enjoy the sweet taste of victory again when it’s all set and done.

Prediction: Adesanya by decision.
Best Bet: Adesanya by decision at 2.80.

Alternative Bet: Adesanya at 1.66.

Alexa Grasso (2.55) v Maycee Barber (1.50) (Flyweight)

Five years after their first meeting, two of the best flyweights in the world run it back in order to move forward in their quest for gold in the co-main event.

Grasso (16-5-1) won the first encounter with a dominant display of boxing and counter-grappling on her way to stunning Valentina Shevchenko to become the first Mexican woman to win a UFC championship.

After battling “The Bullet” to a draw in the sequel, she lost the trilogy fight and also came up short against Natalia Silva, leaving third-ranked Grasso in desperate need of course-correcting.

Barber (15-2) has been flawless since the loss to Grasso. She returned from a harrowing 21-month layoff due to health issues with a dominant victory over Karine Silva in December to stretch her win streak to seven and climb to No. 5 in the rankings.

“The Future” is tied for second-most knockouts and second-most wins in flyweight history, and avenging her loss to Grasso in this rematch could clinch her a title shot. Momentum is on Barber’s side, but I still have faith in Grasso. She showed she has all the tools to beat Barber, and with her elite-level experience, I’m backing Grasso to prevail again. 

Prediction: Grasso by decision.

Best Bet: Grasso at 2.55.

Alternative Bet: Grasso by decision at 2.70.

Michael Chiesa (1.15) v Niko Price (5.25) (Welterweight)

A man who fought his way into the UFC by winning season 15 of The Ultimate Fighter, Chiesa (19-7) will call time on his career after one last hoorah this weekend.

His retirement is unlike most, in which the sport has passed an aging warrior by. At 38 and 14 years into his UFC tenure, “Maverick” is still going strong and will make his final walk to the Octagon on a three-fight win streak.

Having submitted the legendary Tony Ferguson as well as Max Griffin, and followed that up with a decision win over Court McGee last time out, he’s ready to ride off into the sunset after fighting in his home state in front of his family and friends.

Originally set to face Carlston Harris, Chiesa has a new dance partner in Price (16-10). A fellow veteran, “The Hybrid” is dangerous but often too game for his own good. Case in point, stepping up on short notice despite having done exactly that and being knocked out in the first round by Nikolay Veretennikov last time out.

That loss in February was his third in a row and took him further into decline with his record over the last six years now 2-7 (1 NC). His all-action style makes him an intriguing opponent for Chiesa’s farewell fight, but the latter’s grappling is levels above Price’s and will see him secure a priceless victory.

Prediction: Chiesa by submission.

Best Bet: Chiesa by submission (check markets).

Julian Erosa (3.40) v Lerryan Douglas (1.30) (Featherweight)

We have ourselves a shootout between Erosa (31-12) and the debuting “Gunslinger.”

A veteran with an insatiable appetite for violence, Erosa is highly skilled and well-rounded on paper, but his aggressive nature makes him a balls-to-the-wall battler.

“Juicy J” can finish things on the feet or the ground (12 knockouts and 14 submissions) and is absolutely fearless. After being cooled off by Melquizael Costa, who snapped the American’s three-fight win streak last May, Erosa is ready to return to action.

Douglas (13-5) punched his ticket to the UFC with a knockout win over Cam Teague on last season’s Dana White’s Contender Series and will make his promotional debut on a five-fight win streak.

Cub Swanson’s protégé has heavy hands for a 145-pounder, with his last six wins all coming by knockout. Erosa is by no means an easy out, but his willingness to engage in fire-fights will play into Douglas’ hands and should see the Brazilian start his UFC career with a bang.

Prediction: Douglas by knockout.

Best Bet: Douglas by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.64.

Alternative Bet: Douglas by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 1.58.

Mansur Abdul-Malik (1.83) v Yousri Belgaroui (1.95) (Middleweight)

One of the most promising emerging middleweights faces a literal tall order in this tussle.

Heading into his fifth UFC bout, Abdul-Malik remains unbeaten with an overall record of 9-0-1. Not only that, he boasts a 100% finishing rate and showed in his last fight that he’s not just a knockout artist as he submitted Antonio Trocoli.

Standing across from him this weekend is Dutch kickboxer Belgaroui (9-3). A towering presence at 185 pounds, he stands 6’6″ and used his long limbs to knockout Azamat Bekoev in his UFC debut in October.

Interestingly, though, despite giving up four inches in height, Abdul-Malik is the one who has the reach advantage, albeit slightly. As the more polished mixed martial artist, he’s the favourite, but as the busier and more sophisticated striker, Belgaroui has my backing.

Prediction: Belgaroui by knockout.

Best Bet: Belgaroui at 1.95.

Alternative Bet: Belgaroui by KO/TKO/DQ at 3.65.

Terrance McKinney (1.57) v Kyle Nelson (2.37) (Lightweight)

A human storm will hit the Octagon in the form of McKinney (17-8) in the main card opener.

If you’re talking kill-or-be-killed fighters, “T Wrecks” is high on that list. A full 25 fights deep into his pro career, he has never gone to a decision.

The record holder for the shortest average fight time in lightweight history, eight of his wins are by knockout and the other nine by submission, while all eight of his losses are also by stoppage.

In Nelson (17-6-1), he has an opponent who’ll happily walk into the fire. “The Monster” has put down 10 former foes (six by knockout and four by tapout) and is willing to take one to give one.

This should be thrilling for however long it lasts. Bank on McKinney to get it done sooner rather than later.

Prediction: McKinney by knockout.

Best Bet: McKinney by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.70.

Alternative Bet: McKinney by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 1.66.