Formula 1: Japanese Grand Prix Preview and Predictions

All eyes will be on how the drivers utilise the high-speed track to lift and coast to charge their batteries. The 2026 cars feature a power split of around 50% between the V6 petrol engine and electric power from the battery. There’s also a new push-to-pass button that gives additional electric power. 

The new regulations have faced criticism from many in the paddock, including four-time Japanese GP winner Max Verstappen and reigning world champion Lando Norris. The duo criticised the “artificial” racing where overtaking depends heavily on energy deployment rather than pure driving skill.

Mercedes is currently streets ahead of the pack and leads the drivers’ and constructors’ standings. Kimi Antonelli and George Russell share one victory each in 2026. Suzuka is seen as a true performance test, so we’ll learn if Ferrari can genuinely fight Mercedes. The Italian team is comfortably the second fastest on the grid and is 31 points adrift in the standings.

At the other end of the table, newcomers Cadillac and underperforming Aston Martin have yet to score points.

Track Stats

Suzuka is the only track on the calendar with a figure-of-eight layout and fuses elevation changes with sweeping shifts of direction.

The 5.807km circuit is owned by Honda and was resurfaced ahead of the 2025 event, from the exit of the first chicane to the end of the first sector, according to Pirelli. It’s a particularly demanding circuit on the tyres.

The first half of the circuit features the iconic ‘S’ curves, a narrow series of left- and right-handers. The second half of the lap sees famous turns like Degner corners (8 and 9) and the Spoon curve (13 and 14). The famous Turn 15, known as the 130R, has been the sight of many battles with cars reaching 300km/h.

All eyes will be on how the drivers use 130R to maximise the battery regeneration and if it will soften the racing we’re accustomed to seeing at the famous track.

Mercedes domination or can Ferrari convert its quali pace into a race win?

Antonelli and Russell have been the top drivers so far, but Verstappen’s four wins at Suzuka make him a dark horse if the Red Bull can be reliable.

Lewis Hamilton’s first podium for Ferrari in a GP makes him a contender in Japan, with teammate Charles Leclerc a strong contender for the podium.

Further down the field, look out for value bets in the Haas pair of Esteban Ocon and Oliver Bearman, and Frenchman Pierre Gasly in the Alpine.

Suzuka isn’t just about raw speed — cars that are stable in direction changes (like Mercedes) will dominate race pace, while tyre degradation could swing things late.

The sport takes a break after Suzuka after F1 canceled the Bahrain and Saudi Arabia races due to the war in the Middle East. There’s a five-week break before the Miami GP.

Predictions

Grand Prix Winner: Russell

Grand Prix Podium: Russell, Antonelli, Leclerc

Pole Position: Russell

Top 4 and 5: Hamilton, Verstappen

Finish in the points: Lindblad, Hadjar, Gasly, Bearman

Race Winning Margin: Under 5 seconds

Fastest Lap: Antonelli

First to Retire: Stroll, Alonso, Sainz, Albon

First car to retire: Aston Martin

Most Team Points: Mercedes

Both Cars Qualify for Q3 Shootout: McLaren

Practice 1/2/3 Winning Car: Russell / Mercedes