UFC 326: Holloway v Oliveira 2 Predictions

A clash of top-10 middleweights serves as the co-headliner as Caio Borralho takes on Reinier de Ridder, while a second main card clash at 185 pounds will see Gregory Rodrigues and Brunno Ferreira bang it out.

Plus, Rob Font faces Raul Rosas Jr at bantamweight and Drew Dober meets Michael Johnson at lightweight.

Max Holloway (1.42) v Charles Oliveira (2.80) (BMF Championship)

MAIN CARD:

Sunday, March 8, 4:00 AM SAST

They don’t make ‘em like they used to.

Back in the day, mixed martial arts was very much a blood sport. Two men would enter the Octagon with only one thing on their minds – to take out the man in front of them.

It wasn’t about outpointing your opponent on the feet, holding them up against the fence or blanketing them on the canvas. It was about brutalising the man staring back at you and rendering him unable to continue in as violent a fashion as your creativity and skillset allowed.

Modern mixed martial arts is not a world solely inhabited by fighters. Standout athletes and competitors have entered the fray. These are men and women who approach the fight game like a chess match. They’re methodical rather than malicious, driven by numbers-based science to outsmart their foes.   

Of course, there’s nothing wrong with competing inside the Octagon as opposed to fighting, but mixed martial arts is at its rawest and realist when two combatants with a shared kill-or-be-killed mentality put their lives on the line and battle it out until only one of them is left standing.

Holloway and Oliveira are two such warriors. They’re two of the fiercest and finest to ever step inside the Octagon, decorated dogs of war, who have held undisputed championships – Holloway at featherweight and Oliveira at lightweight.

The destruction the future Hall of Famers have left in their wake over the years qualifies them to fight for a unique title, the BMF belt, reserved for only the baddest mother f***ers in the sport.

Holloway won the title with arguably the greatest knockout of all time against Justin Gaethje at the landmark UFC 300 event in 2024, and became the first man to successfully defend it when he defeated Dustin Poirier in what was The Diamond’s retirement fight last July.

Oliveira fell short in his bid to become a two-time lightweight champion when he was brutally knocked out by the undefeated Ilia Topuria last June. His decision to return to the Octagon to headline a card in his hometown of Rio just four months later prompted concerns, but “Do Bronx” bounced back in style by forcing Mateusz Gamrot to tap out.

That brings us to this weekend’s much-anticipated showdown, a rematch nearly 11 years in the making. Facing off at featherweight back in August 2015, Holloway got his hand raised following an injury to Oliveira 99 seconds into the bout, leaving the two legends with unfinished business, which they’ll finally settle in Vegas.

The fighting pride of Hawaii, Holloway’s brand of violence is a bloody ballet as he glides across the cage and systematically picks an opponent apart with some of the best boxing in all of mixed martial arts. “Blessed” enters the battle of legends with a record of 27-8 with 12 knockouts and two submissions.  

Brazil’s Oliveira is the UFC’s apex predator, boasting the most finishes and most submissions in UFC history with 21 and 17, respectively. He also has the most performance bonuses in company history with 20. His record stands at 36-11 going into this war.  

When it comes down to it, Holloway has a lot more tread left on the tyres than Oliveira. Couple that with his crisp boxing and superior movement and “Blessed” looks poised to retain his crown in thrilling fashion.

Prediction: Holloway by knockout.

Best Bet: Holloway by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.35.

Alternative Bet: Under 3.5 rounds at 1.75.

Caio Borralho (1.35) v Reinier de Ridder (3.10) (Middleweight)

Two top-10 middleweights with contrasting styles square off in the co-main event with the shared goal of rebounding from momentum-halting defeats and re-entering the title hunt.

A new school striker, Borralho (17-2) punched, kicked, elbowed and kneed his way into the middleweight elite during a run of seven straight wins, the last over former title challenger Jarod Cannonier.

That run came to an end in September in Paris, where fellow surging contender Nassourdine Imavov prevailed on points to hand the seventh-ranked Brazilian his first loss inside the Octagon.

A former two-division champion in ONE Championship, it took De Ridder (21-3) some time to make it to the UFC, prompting the grappling wizard to push too hard, too soon.

The all gas and no brakes approach did “The Dutch Knight” wonders as he quickly racked up four consecutive wins, including a split decision victory over ex-champion and one of the all-time greats at 185 pounds, Robert Whittaker, in July.

However, signing up for a fifth fight in less than a year proved overly ambitious. All the training camps and fights he’d crammed into such a short period of time caught up with him in his October outing against Brendan Allen.

Being unable to answer the bell for the fifth round was a massive blow to his growing reputation and eighth-ranked RDR now has to prove a point to those who deem him a quitter.

Having followed De Ridder’s career extensively, I can confidently say that he’s not a quitter and simply tried to do too much. Having taken time off, and with this being a three-round fight, stamina won’t be an issue for him.

Add his grappling, unorthodox striking and ability to blend the two and he’s a sleeper pick not to pass on. 

Prediction: De Ridder by decision.

Best Bet: De Ridder at 3.10.

Alternative Bet: De Ridder by decision at 5.00.

Rob Font (2.80) v Raul Rosas Jr (1.42) (Bantamweight)

The past meets the future as grizzled veteran Font (22-9) faces young prospect Rosas Jr (11-1) in the featured bout.

A 12-year UFC stalwart, Font has mixed it up with some of the bantamweight division’s best and boasts notable wins over the likes of Marlon Moraes and former champion Cody Garbrandt.

Closing in on 40, he’s now the gatekeeper of the division, the test to see if rising stars can break into the top 15. Currently ranked 13th, he’d recorded back-to-back wins over Kyler Phillips and Jean Matsumoto before being outworked by David Martinez last time out.  

Rosas Jr has big dreams, including breaking Jon Jones’ record as the youngest champion in UFC history. “El Niño Problema” has done a good job of chasing that lofty goal, winning all but one of his six fights inside the Octagon to date.

Just 21, he’s on a four-fight win streak, the most recent being a decision victory over Vince Morales. In a fight destined to go to the scorecards, Rosas Jr’s grappling game should see him control things and get past Font and his poor 43% takedown defence.

Prediction: Rosas Jr by decision.

Best Bet: Rosas Jr by decision at 2.25.

Alternative Bet: Fight to go the distance at 1.57.

Drew Dober (1.95) v Michael Johnson (1.83) (Lightweight)

Unlike the above bout, the judges should be mere spectators in the first two tilts on the main card.

Two veteran UFC warriors who always put on a show will finally meet in what promises to be a fire-fight.

The stocky Dober (28-15) has an edge in the power department and no less than 21 wins by stoppage, including 16 by knockout. Kyle Prepolec was his last victim in a third-round TKO win that snapped a three-fight losing streak.

For a man with a record of 24-19 with 12 finishes (10 knockouts and two submissions), Johnson has found consistency in the twilight of his career.

“The Menace” hasn’t lost since 2023, winning three on the trot, including stunning Daniel Zellhuber as a six-to-one underdog in his only fight of 2025.

His days of knocking out future Hall of Famer Dustin Poirier might be long gone, but he’s still a problem for a lot of fighters at 155 pounds, including Dober.

Three key factors – his higher fight IQ, ability to stay calm when the bullets are flying and three-and-a-half-inch reach advantage – should see Johnson continue his winning ways.

Prediction: Johnson by knockout.

Best Bet: Johnson by KO/TKO/DQ at 3.10.

Alternative Bet: Johnson at 1.83.

Gregory Rodrigues (1.48) v Brunno Ferreira (2.62) (Middleweight)

The battle of Brazilians opening the main card will be a banger as familiar foes face off for the second time.

It was three years ago that Rodrigues (18-6) got off to a good start before paying the price for overzealousness, with Ferreira (15-2) cleaning his clock. Rodrigues is 5-1 since then, losing only to perennial contender Cannonier, while Ferreira is 5-2.

Ranked two places above his countryman at No. 13, Rodrigues has defeated higher-rated competition than his old foe, although, Ferreira did beat former title challenger Marvin Vettori in December.

“Robocop” seems to have the higher ceiling and clearly learned his lesson in the first fight with Ferreira, showing more patience while still being potent since then. As a result, he should get his revenge against “The Hulk.”

Prediction: Rodrigues by knockout.

Best Bet: Rodrigues by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.60.