UFC 323: Dvalishvili v Yan 2 Predictions

Flyweight king Alexandre Pantoja aims to turn back another dangerous challenger in Joshua Van in the co-headliner at the T-Mobile Arena.

Plus, former two-time flyweight champion Brandon Moreno takes on Tatsuro Taira, the legendary Henry Cejudo makes his final walk to the Octagon to face Payton Talbott in a bantamweight battle and ex-light heavyweight titleholder Jan Blachowicz returns against Bogdan Guskov.

MAIN CARD:

When: Sunday, December 7, 5:00 AM SAST

Merab Dvalishvili (1.22) v Petr Yan (4.20) (Bantamweight Championship)

No fighter has a more apt nickname than Dvalishvili (21-4). Known as “The Machine”, the Georgian juggernaut is unlike anything the Octagon has ever seen before. He’s a world-class, relentless wrestler who simply doesn’t stop marching forward and doesn’t slow down.

He pushes and sustains a superhuman pace that no one has been able to keep up with and he is widely regarded as the best bantamweight of all time. In 2025, he’s taken his moniker even further.

The anomaly has been super active, continuing to pull away from the rest of the division, and will this weekend look to become the first fighter ever to successfully defend a UFC title four times in a calendar year.

To do so, he returns to the T-Mobile Arena, where he outclassed Cory Sandhagen (decision) in his most recent title defence in October, which saw him complete a golden hat-trick following wins over the previously undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov (decision) and Sean O’Malley (submission) in January and June, respectively.

He boasts the longest win streak in bantamweight history at 13, a run that stretches back to 2018, and will surpass good friend and training partner Aljamain Sterling for the most consecutive defences of the 135-pound title with a win this weekend. He’s also the first and only fighter to record 100 takedowns inside the Octagon.

Yan (19-5) knows exactly how relentless Dvalishvili is. In their first fight in March 2023, Dvalishvili attempted a UFC-record 49 takedowns, an absolutely mind-blowing stat, and succeeded 11 times en route to a decision victory.

That loss put Yan on a three-fight skid, with the Russian having also lost split decisions to Sterling and O’Malley, but he has since rebounded with three consecutive victories over Song Yadong, Deiveson Figueiredo and, most recently, Marcus McGhee (all by decision) in July.

A former champion, Yan is out for revenge and to reclaim the title. One of the best pure boxers in the UFC, “No Mercy” is a slow poison type of fighter with seven knockouts to his name and has never been stopped. On the flip side, Dvalishvili has never been knocked out and has just five finishes in his career, so odds are this duel will go the distance.

Being on an unstoppable seven-year tour de force, Dvalishvili was a bit looser against Sandhagen last time out. He’s also showboated and been playful at times in recent times, so one or two punters might look at that and back Yan to catch him if he does fool around for a big pay-out.

However, knowing just how tough Yan is and that history is on the line, Dvalishvili should be laser-focused and outwork his rival to break new ground.

Prediction: Dvalishvili by decision.

Best Bet: Dvalishvili by decision at 1.40.

Alexandre Pantoja (1.42) v Joshua Van (2.80) (Flyweight Championship)

Similar to Dvalishvili, Pantoja (30-5) has had a dominant title reign.

Since seizing the strap in July 2023, Pantoja has ruled the 125-pound division with an iron fist, turning back four challengers in Brandon Royval, Steve Erceg, Kai Asakura and most recently, Kai Kara-France in June.

Scarily for the rest of the division, “The Cannibal” gets better with every outing and punctuated his last two defences with tapout victories. He’s fought nothing but the best the division has to offer since 2021 and has beaten all comers.

On an eight-fight win streak, the Brazilian has separated himself from the rest as the greatest flyweight of all time and as the most complete 125-pounder alive.

His striking is at a very high level, he’s a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and his fight IQ is through the roof. He has eight knockouts to his name, although the last came over Matt Schnell in 2019, and he’s like a Venus flytrap on the ground, which has earned him 11 submissions.

In Van (15-2), he faces the hottest rising star in the division. A blue-chipper who turned 24 in October, Van has been on a meteoric rise. He’s only been competing as a pro since 2021 and is now on the brink of reaching the top of the mixed martial arts mountain.

“The Fearless” has won five straight fights, including upsetting Royval in a Fight of the Year candidate in June, and is 8-1 overall inside the Octagon. Hungry, heavy-handed and highly tactical, Van plans on ushering in a new era.

As capable and as crisp as the champion is on the feet, staying standing favours the challenger. Pantoja’s safest path to victory is to drag Van into his world on the ground, where he has a major and what should prove to be decisive advantage.

Prediction: Pantoja to use his experience and superior grappling to control the fight and retain by submission.

Best Bet: Pantoja by submission at 2.25.

Alternative Bet: Under 3.5 rounds at 1.90.

Brandon Moreno (2.00) v Tatsuro Taira (1.76) (Flyweight)

Members of the flyweight top five, these two will go all out to show why they should be next in line for a title shot against the winner of the co-main event.

No. 2-ranked Moreno (23-8-2) is driven to reclaim the crown that he so proudly wore as Mexico’s first-ever UFC champion. “The Assassin Baby” has scored back-to-back wins over Amir Albazi and Steve Erceg in main event matchups and is so close to the gold that he can almost touch it.

Taira (17-1) suffered the first loss of his career against Brandon Royval last October but rebounded with a submission win over HyunSung Park in August. At 25, the fifth-ranked Japanese ace has a lot more tread on the tyres than his 31-year-old opponent.

However, Moreno has never been stopped and his vast experience should guide him to victory.

Prediction: Moreno by decision.

Best Bet: Moreno at 2.00.

Alternative Bet: Moreno by decision at 2.60.

Henry Cejudo (2.90) v Payton Talbott (1.40) (Bantamweight)

Win, lose or draw, the legendary Cejudo (16-5) will lay down his gloves inside the Octagon at the end of this fight.

A 2008 Olympic gold medal-winning wrestling phenom and a former two-division champion in the UFC, “Triple C” is one of the great combat sports athletes ever.

He originally retired on top in 2020 but returned three years later. His second run in the promotion has shown that time catches up to everyone, as the 38-year-old is 0-3.

He was outpointed by Aljamain Sterling and Merab Dvalishvili, and dropped a technical decision to Song Yadong in his only fight this year after being unable to continue due to an eye poke.

Talbott (10-1) is not on the same level as any of the above-mentioned fighters yet. However, the 27-year-old has all the makings of a future superstar and has thus been granted this golden opportunity to break out by beating a legend and taking his No. 10 ranking.

A born finisher, all but one of his wins have come by stoppage, with one of his seven knockout victims being South Africa’s Cameron Saaiman, whom he finished last March.

The only decision win of his career came in his last fight against Felipe Lima in June. He was a bit more meticulous in that one as he entered it off the back of his first loss to Raoni Barcelos, and should be sharp, having regained his confidence with that rebound win.

Patience, precision and distance management will be key for Talbott, and fortunately for him, he’s a tall, rangy sharpshooter on the feet. At 5’10”, he’ll have a six-inch height and six-and-a-half-inch reach advantage.

As tempted as I am to back Cejudo to grind out a win with his wrestling as a heavy underdog, history has shown us that legends past their primes usually go out on their backs. That grim fate will likely also befall Cejudo.

Prediction: Talbott by knockout.

Best Bet: Talbott by KO/TKO/DQ at 3.25.

Alternative Bet: Talbott by decision at 2.00.  

Jan Blachowicz (1.70) v Bogdan Guskov (2.10) (Light Heavyweight)

Like Cejudo-Talbott, the main card opener is also a case of a decorated veteran facing a rising contender.

Former light heavyweight champion Blachowicz (29-11-1) returned from a 21-month layoff against the streaking Carlos Ulberg in March and lost by decision. Winless in his past three fights, the 42-year-old hasn’t tasted victory since his TKO win over Aleksandar Rakic in May 2022, yet is still ranked fifth.

Conversely, Guskov (18-3) has been on a roll since dropping his short-notice UFC debut to Volkan Oezdemir in September 2023. The 32-year-old went on to finish his next four fights, most recently knocking out Nikita Krylov in just over four minutes in July, and can vault into the top five with a win over the Polish powerhouse.

Even at this stage of his career, Blachowicz is rock solid. He’s better technically and wiser tactically, which should see the veteran get back in the win column.

Prediction: Blachowicz by decision.

Best Bet: Blachowicz at 1.70.

Alternative Bet: Blachowicz by decision at 3.10.