UFC 321: Aspinall v Gane Predictions

A second title is on the line as Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern duke it out for the vacant strawweight championship in the co-headliner.

Plus, three pivotal fights will see Umar Nurmagomedov battle Mario Bautista at bantamweight, Alexander Volkov face Jailton Almeida at heavyweight and Aleksandar Rakic meet Azamat Murzakanov at light heavyweight.

Tom Aspinall (1.25) v Ciryl Gane (3.75) (Heavyweight Championship)

MAIN CARD:
When: Saturday, October 25, 8 PM SAST

An absolute anomaly, Aspinall (15-3) became the first-ever British UFC heavyweight champion when he knocked out Sergei Pavlovich to capture the interim championship in November 2023.

After he obliterated Curtis Blaydes in 60 seconds to successfully defend the belt last July, he was seemingly on a collision course with the winner of the undisputed title fight between Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic four months later.

He and the UFC were hell-bent on making a blockbuster unification bout against Jones, the greatest of all time, after “Bones” retained the gold by knockout, but after months of negotiations, Jones shockingly announced his retirement this June.

That Jones, given his stature, was unwilling to risk his legacy against Aspinall speaks to just what a special talent and unique threat the 32-year-old is. Aspinall was consequently elevated to undisputed champion, and UFC 321 is the stage on which he seeks to show he’s truly the one and only king of the heavyweights.

Aspinall is the total package and an absolute wrecking machine boasting a 100% finish rate. His win over Blaydes was his 12th by knockout, while he also has three submissions, including a straight arm lock win over Volkov, to his name.

What sets him apart from other pure predators is the fact that he has the shortest average fight time in UFC history at 2:02 per fight. He is Mr Don’t Blink, but don’t get it twisted, he’s anything but reckless. It’s his speed, akin to that of a welterweight, elite fight IQ and complete skillset that enable him to eviscerate the man in front of him in short order.

What makes Saturday’s main event showdown so exciting is that Aspinall will come up against a fellow hyper-athletic heavyweight in No. 1-ranked Gane (13-2).

The French phenom is incredibly light on his feet and super sophisticated with his striking. A former interim champion, he’s not as lethal as Aspinall with nine finishes (six knockouts and three submissions) to his name, but his movement and tactical prowess serve him exceptionally well.

“Bon Gamin” is 0-2 in undisputed title fights, losing to Francis Ngannou by decision in 2022 and to Jones by submission in 2023. He’s coming off back-to-back wins over Serghei Spivac and Volkov and is hunting history as he looks to become the first French fighter to win an undisputed UFC title.

As gifted as Gane is, Aspinall is a truly one-of-a-kind heavyweight destroyer and should get the job done in his usual style. The difficulty from a betting perspective comes in whether to back him by knockout or submission.

Given how fast Jones was able to tap out Gane, I suspect Aspinall will follow that path.

Prediction: Aspinall by stoppage.

Best Bet: Under 1.5 rounds at 1.93.

Alternative Bets: Aspinall by submission at 3.25 or by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.05.

Virna Jandiroba (2.30) v Mackenzie Dern (1.60) (Vacant Strawweight Championship)

A new strawweight queen will be crowned in the co-main event, with Zhang Weili having relinquished the title ahead of moving up to face flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko in a super fight next month.

No strangers to one another, Jandiroba (22-3) and Dern (15-5) faced off in 2020 with the former breaking the latter’s nose. However, the durable Dern toughed it out to earn a decision win.

Jandiroba is 6-1 and Dern is 5-4 since then, and will now run it back with the title on the line.

A late bloomer, Jandiroba has put together a five-fight win streak. “Carcara” defeated former title challenger Yan Xiaonan via points last time out to earn her maiden championship opportunity at the age of 37.

Dern has doubled down with consecutive victories over Loopy Godinez and Amanda Ribas. The submission win over Ribas in their main event showdown in January was particularly sweet for Dern, as it was Ribas who had handed her her first loss back in 2019.

Both combatants are elite grapplers. Jandiroba focuses on heavy top control, while Dern, a multi-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion, is a submission magician. Thus, it’ll be very interesting when the action hits the mat.

Having said that, when two grapplers face off, it often turns into a stand-up battle, like the pair’s first fight. Dern has an edge on both fronts and pushes a higher pace at 32 years of age, leaving her set to seize the throne.

Prediction: Dern by decision.

Best Bet: Dern at 1.60.

Alternative Bet: Dern by decision at 3.60 or by submission at 3.60.

Umar Nurmagomedov (1.14) v Mario Bautista (5.50) (Bantamweight)

A bantamweight title shot is likely on the line in the featured bout.

Second-ranked Nurmagomedov (18-1) is in an unfamiliar spot as he’s coming off the first loss of his career against champion Merab Dvalishvili in January.

That he was a heavy favourite against Dvalishvili, who’s now widely regarded as the bantamweight GOAT, speaks to the talent of the cousin of former lightweight champion and Hall of Famer Khabib Nurmagomedov.

The question now is, how will he respond to being bounced from the ranks of the unbeaten?

Eighth-ranked Bautista (16-2) is on a remarkable roll. His win over former Bellator champion Patchy Mix in June was his eighth straight. Only the champion, Dvalishvili, who’ll defend his title against Petr Yan in December, boasts a longer active win streak in the division than the surging Brazilian. 

Both men are grinders, so this probably won’t be a fan-friendly fight. Yet, it’s a pivotal clash for the 135-pound division. Nurmagomedov is so effective in mixing everything seamlessly and pressuring an opponent relentlessly that he should bounce back.

Prediction: Nurmagomedov by decision.

Best Bet: Nurmagomedov by decision at 1.61.

Alexander Volkov (2.65) v Jailton Almeida (1.48) (Heavyweight)

Top-five heavyweights with contrasting styles square off seeking to make their case to fight the winner of the main event for the gold next year.

An evergreen giant, Volkov (38-11) re-established himself as a top contender with a four-fight win streak, which he capped by beating former interim title challenger Pavlovich.

In fact, second-ranked “Drago” is unlucky not to be fighting for the title on Saturday night, as most believe he was robbed in his last bout against Gane, which controversially went the way of the Frenchman by split decision.

Where the Russian is mainly a striker, Almeida (22-3) is a powerful and suffocating grappler. The fifth-ranked Brazilian stopped Spivac last time out to make it back-to-back wins following a submission victory over Alexander Romanov last June.

“Malhadinho” is 8-1 inside the Octagon and would be a fresh matchup for Aspinall or Gane. Volkov has history with both headliners, so it’s up to them to seize the moment, making for a very intriguing tussle.

Entering his 50th pro fight, Volkov has a world of experience and knows how to use his 6’7″ frame. He’ll only have a one-inch reach advantage, though. Almeida (22-3) has shown an ability to take down just about anyone, and even though Volkov has a decent ground game, Almeida should control things to come out on top.

Prediction: Almeida by decision.

Best Bet: Almeida by decision at 6.00.

Alternative Bet: Almeida by submission at 2.40.

Aleksandar Rakic (1.93) v Azamat Murzakanov (1.85) (Light Heavyweight)

Elite light heavyweights on contrasting trajectories collide in the main card opener.

A staple in the upper echelons of the 205-pound ranks, Rakic (14-5) is on a three-fight losing streak that has seen him slip down to seventh in the rankings. 

It must be said, though, that all three of those defeats were against ex-titleholders in Jan Blachowicz, Jiri Prochazka and Magomed Ankalaev.

Murzakanov is entering the fight with a flawless record of 15-0 with 11 knockouts and one submission.

“The Professional” has won four of his five Octagon outings by stoppage, including a TKO triumph over Brendson Ribeiro last time out, and is ranked at No. 10.

A compact southpaw, he’s making a significant step up in competition here, but “Rocket” seems ripe for the picking, so I’m backing Murzakanov to stay unbeaten.

Prediction: Murzakanov by knockout.

Best Bet: Murzakanov at 1.85.

Alternative Bet: Murzakanov by KO/TKO/DQ at 3.00.