The Gypsy King Is Back: Fury v Makhmudov Preview and Prediction

Tyson Fury (1.16) v Arslanbek Makhmudov (5.00) (Heavyweight)

Saturday, April 11, 10 PM SA time

Fury is among the top 10 heavyweight boxers in history, but he must be a lousy poker player.

In my tribute to the transcendent titan following his shock retirement announcement last January, I said don’t be surprised if we see him return to the ring.

He’d retired and unretired several times before, and now he’s doing it again. A fighter in his core, he’s back for more, and his next act starts with a sizeable challenge in Makhmudov. The bout is scheduled for 12 rounds and will be streamed on Netflix.  

One of the all-time greats, “The Gypsy King” conquered all comers for 16 years, winning the world heavyweight title twice and establishing himself as a legend, until he finally met his match in 2024 in the form of Oleksandr Usyk.

The Ukrainian handed the British behemoth his first loss by split decision in the first undisputed heavyweight title fight of the modern four-belt era in their first meeting that May and won the December rematch by unanimous decision.

After stepping away from the squared circle, Fury is now ready to jump back into the fire. A trilogy fight with unified heavyweight king Usyk is his main goal, while the long-awaited blockbuster showdown with Anthony Joshua could also finally materialise.  

However, those box office bouts hinge heavily on Fury’s performance on Saturday night. Makhmudov is limited, but this is not necessarily a lay-up for Fury. Destructive and durable, the Russian – who’s based in Canada – stands six-foot-six and boasts a record of 21-2 with 19 knockouts.

Anyone with the firepower, frame and fearlessness of Makhmudov, who does indeed wrestle bears, is a threat, even if he’s not the most sophisticated boxer. Fury knows this first-hand. He underestimated Francis Ngannou and was dropped and almost beaten by the former UFC champion in Ngannou’s first boxing fight in 2023.

Fury is a showman on top of being a phenomenal boxer, so you can be sure there’ll be some sizzle from him in his big comeback on home soil, but he’s also learned his lesson and won’t overlook Makhmudov. An anomaly, Fury moves incredibly well for a towering six-foot-nine titan and can do it all between the ropes. He can stand and bang in the pocket, play the bully or outbox opponents on the outside.

Returning at 37 with his record at 34-2-1 (24 knockouts), Fury has far more weapons at his disposal than his 36-year-old foe, who mainly sets up his big shot – the right hand – with a standard one-two. For him to land the one-hitter quitter he needs to shock the world, he’ll have to come up with something new, take chances or catch Fury if he’s reckless.

Again, though, Fury is a smart man and an even smarter boxer. He’s fully aware of the danger zones in this fight and, in addition to being a master of distance management, has a whopping nine-inch reach advantage. He also knows that the big Russian is tough-as-nails, and that it’ll take some time to melt him.

That actually benefits Fury, who’ll want some ring time after his time away. I expect him to systematically break Makhmudov down and earn a late stoppage.

Prediction: Fury by knockout.

Best Bet: Fury by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.50.

Alternative Bet: Over 8.5 rounds at 1.90.