UFC Fight Night: Lopes v Silva Predictions

The co-headliner of the Mexican Independence Day Weekend event will see bantamweight veteran Rob Font face David Martinez. In another clash in the 135-pound division, Santiago Luna will make his UFC debut against Quang Le.

Plus, Rafa Garcia and Jared Gordon go at it at lightweight, and former interim middleweight title challenger Kelvin Gastelum collides with Dustin Stoltzfus.

MAIN CARD:

When: Sunday, September 14, 12:00 AM SAST

Diego Lopes (2.70) v Jean Silva (1.44) (Featherweight)

Elite featherweights with a flair for the spectacular are set to thrill in the main event. Equally aggressive and dangerous, these top talents will tear it up in a can’t-miss clash that carries possible title implications.

A five-fight win streak earned Lopes (26-7) a shot at the vacant 145-pound belt against Alexander Volkanovski in April, but the Brazilian came up short against the consensus divisional GOAT, who reclaimed the title by decision.

Ranked second, the 30-year-old has dusted himself off and can thrust his name right back into the title conversation with a win over his surging countryman.

Silva (16-2) has taken the division by storm, stacking one sensational showing on top of the other since joining the UFC in 2024. “Lord” remains undefeated in the UFC after five straight wins in the Octagon, all by finish. Triumph here, and he could earn himself a future championship opportunity.

Lopes was Silva in the sense that he quickly established himself as one of, if not the most exciting prospect at 145 pounds. After giving undefeated Movsar Evloev all he could handle in a short-notice losing effort in his UFC debut in May 2023, he scored three straight first-round stoppages (against Gavin Tucker, Pat Sabatini, and Sodiq Yusuff), each faster than the last.

The all-action dynamo then defeated veteran Dan Ige by decision and made the biggest statement of all by battering former title challenger Brian Ortega over three rounds last September to punch his ticket to a title fight. Volkanovski’s class and vast experience proved too much for him, and the fast-moving mixed martial arts sphere has now seemingly soured on Lopes as he’s a big underdog in this one.

Don’t count me among them, though. Sure, Silva deserves to be the favourite given his win streak, but the line is wild to me. Not that I’m complaining, it’s just surprising to me. Lopes isn’t suddenly a bad fighter, he just lost to a future first-ballot Hall of Famer.

On the same night of that tilt for the vacant title, Silva won his grudge match against Bryce Mitchell in devastating fashion, putting “Thug Nasty” to sleep with a ninja choke. His four previous wins inside the Octagon – over Westin Wilson, Charles Jourdain, Drew Dober, and Melsik Bagdasaryan – were all by knockout.

His triumph over Mitchell at UFC 314 saw him improve his overall winning streak to 13 and move up to 10th in the rankings. A well-rounded assassin who always goes for the kill, he’s claimed all but one of his wins by finish (12 knockouts and three submissions).

Like-minded Lopes has 22 finishes to his name (10 knockouts and 12 submissions) and won’t take a backward step to his oncoming opponent, setting the table for a thriller.

Skill for skill, these two are evenly matched in my view. Factor in Lopes’ toughness and more proven gas tank, along with his experience against higher-level opposition, and I see him weathering the early storm and pulling off the win.

Prediction: Lopes by decision.

Best Bet: Lopes at 2.70.

Alternative Bet: Lopes by decision at 6.00.

Rob Font (1.75) v David Martinez (2.05) (Bantamweight)

The co-main event is a veteran versus prospect battle after both men were originally set to face different opponents.

Font (22-8) was scheduled to take on Raul Rosas Jr, but when the latter was forced to withdraw, Martinez (12-1) jumped at the opportunity to test himself against a top 10 opponent instead of fighting Quang Le.

As a UFC veteran, Font is better equipped to handle the switch-up. His vast experience will also make him the more composed competitor. He’s just about seen it all, whereas Martinez is fresh into his UFC career and will feature in his first co-headliner.

Ninth-ranked Font is well-rounded and has excellent fundamentals. He’s won two in a row since linking up with the famed Tristar Gym in Montreal, beating both Kyler Phillips and Jean Matsumoto by decision.

Mexico’s own Martinez (12-1) is a lethal striker with 10 of his dozen wins coming by knockout. The 27-year-old earned his UFC contract with a decision win over Xavier Franklin last season on Dana White’s Contender Series and announced himself with a first-round stoppage win over Saimon Oliveira in his promotional debut in March.

“Black Spartan” is an exciting prospect, but he’s never fought anyone close to Font’s level. The American’s savviness, four-inch reach advantage, and ability to seamlessly mix striking and grappling should see him get the better of Martinez.

Prediction: Font by decision.

Best Bet: Font at 1.75.

Alternative Bet: Font by decision at 2.20.

Rafa Garcia (2.85) v Jared Gordon (1.42) (Lightweight)

Lightweight veterans looking to go on a run face off in the featured bout.

Local favourite Garcia (17-4) bounced back from a knockout loss to Grant Dawson by outpointing Vinc Pichel in March. He’s hardly a threat on the feet, with his only knockout win dating back to 2018, well before his time in the UFC. Instead, “Gifted” is a high-level grappler.

While he does have eight submission wins to his name, the last came back in 2022. For him, it’s more about taking and keeping his opponent down with good top control. 

Like Garcia, Gordon (21-7) got back in the win column last time out. He did it more emphatically, though, scoring his eighth knockout against Thiago Moises. “Flash” is a considerably better striker than his foe and will have a two-inch reach advantage.

His takedown defence isn’t the greatest, but his ability to work his way back to his feet has only seen him being submitted once, all the way back in 2016. Having had success against higher-level opponents than Garcia, Gordon should get his hand raised.

Prediction: Gordon by decision.

Best Bet: Gordon by decision at 1.80.

Kelvin Gastelum (1.42) v Dustin Stoltzfus (2.85) (Middleweight)

Since winning season 17 of The Ultimate Fighter back in 2013, Gastelum (19-10) has been a staple in the upper echelons of the welterweight and middleweight divisions.

He holds wins over former champions Johny Hendricks, Vitor Belfort, and Michael Bisping, and took Israel Adesanya to the limit in their war for the interim 185-pound belt in 2019.

However, he hasn’t been the same since that decision loss to “The Last Stylebender”, going 3-6 and dropping out of the top 15. He recorded a welcome win over Daniel Rodriguez in his lone fight of 2024, but lost on points to Joe Pyfer in June.

Santiago Luna (1.70) v Quang Le (2.10) (Bantamweight)

As mentioned above, with Martinez trading his fight with Le (9-2) for a co-main event matchup with Font, the Vietnamese fighter was left without an opponent.

Enter Luna, who brings an undefeated record of 6-0 and a 100% finish rate (two knockouts and four submissions) into his UFC debut. The Mexican newcomer is just 21 years of age, and will get a massive boost from the crowd in this main card opener.

Le is three fights into his UFC career and got his first win inside the Octagon last time out, submitting Gaston Bolanos in May. At 30, he’s further along in his mixed martial arts journey, and in addition to his all-important UFC experience, has had a full training camp.

Luna is untested and came in on short notice, so it’s Le all day, especially as the underdog.

Prediction: Le by decision.

Best Bet: Le at 2.10.

Alternative Bet: Le by decision at 3.60.