UFC 318: Holloway v Poirier 3 Predictions

In the co-headliner, former middleweight title challenger Paulo Costa collides with Roman Kopylov, while the always entertaining Kevin Holland faces Daniel Rodriguez in the featured bout at welterweight.

Plus, Dan Ige battles former two-weight Bellator champion Patricio Freire at featherweight, and lethal lightweights Michael Johnson and Daniel Zellhuber duke it out.

MAIN CARD:

When: Sunday, July 20, 4 AM SAST

Max Holloway (1.75) v Dustin Poirier (2.05) (BMF Championship)

Back in 2012, Poirier welcomed Holloway to the UFC. With the fight game being what it is, unforgiving, Poirier showed the Hawaiian newcomer he had much to learn by submitting him with a triangle armbar in the opening round.

Seven years later, their paths would cross again. By then, they had risen to become two of the best in the world and squared off for the interim lightweight title. In the crowning moment of his career, Poirier prevailed yet again, this time by decision, to capture the interim 155-pound belt and snap reigning 145-pound king Holloway’s legendary 13-fight win streak.

Fast forward to the present and the two men, now bona fide legends, face off one final time in what is Poirier’s retirement fight.

A warrior to his core, Poirier has – through unrelenting drive – gone from a young scrapper who broke onto the scene with a decision victory over Josh Grispi back in 2011 to one of the biggest names in mixed martial arts.

He’s a future Hall of Famer, a fighter’s fighter who’s done it the hard way. No trash-talking his way into big fights or campaigning on social media. No, “The Diamond” has done it the old-school way, by battling all comers, both at featherweight and lightweight.

He’s beaten five champions, starting with the trio of Anthony Pettis, Justin Gaethje, and Eddie Alvarez, before besting Holloway to capture the interim lightweight title and ascending to superstar status by stopping Conor McGregor twice in two of the biggest pay-per-views in UFC history.

The one milestone that has eluded Poirier is winning undisputed gold. He’s fallen agonisingly short of his ultimate goal on three occasions, first against Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2019, then against Charles Oliveira in 2021, and then against Islam Makhachev last June, each time by submission.

Entering his final fight with a record of 30-9, Poirier is known for his striking, which has earned him 15 wins by knockout, but he’s a slick grappler as well with eight submissions to his name. One of his biggest strengths is that he’s comfortable in chaos, and with neither he nor Holloway likely to go for takedowns, the bullets will be flying on the feet.

Holloway is one of the greatest featherweights of all time. Known for his ruthless striking prowess and endless gas tank, he holds the divisional records for most wins (20), finishes (11), knockouts (9), significant strikes landed (2971), and total strikes landed (3,180) amongst others.

He fell short of recapturing the 145-pound title in his last fight as he was knocked out for the first time in his career by undefeated phenom Ilia Topuria last October. Holloway’s BMF belt was not on the line in that fight, which he said was his last at featherweight, as it’s reserved for special circumstances like this weekend’s card, and “Blessed” vows to stand and bang with his familiar foe.

A future Hall of Famer in his own right, the fighting pride of Hawaii’s brand of violence is a bloody ballet as he glides across the cage and systematically picks an opponent apart with some of the best boxing in all of mixed martial arts. He enters the clash of legends with a record of 26-8 with 12 knockouts and two submissions.  

For Holloway, this is a chance to defend the championship he won with arguably the greatest knockout of all time against Gaethje last April, which showed his power at lightweight, and finally get one over local favourite “The Diamond.”

Win or lose, this promises to be an epic finale to Poirier’s career. The younger man by three years, 33-year-old Holloway has more left in the tank and should edge a classic.

Prediction: Holloway by decision.

Best Bet: Holloway at 1.75.

Alternative Bet: Holloway by decision at 2.75.

Paulo Costa (2.80) v Roman Kopylov (1.42) (Middleweight)

Top-15 middleweights on contrasting trajectories get the co-main event spotlight.

Costa (14-4) has been a staple in the 185-pound elite for years. Big for the weight class, the muscle-bound Brazilian is a feared knockout artist with 11 wins by KO. He can stop anyone in the division with his neutralising power, but hasn’t been the same since his stoppage loss to then-champion Israel Adesanya in 2020.

“The Eraser” has won just one of his last five fights, against Luke Rockhold in 2022, and is coming off back-to-back decision losses to former champions Robert Whittaker and Sean Strickland. His last performance against Strickland, in particular, was very disappointing as he wasn’t willing to let his hands go, and one wonders if he’ll have the same issue in this bout. 

Kopylov (14-3) is a man on the rise. The Russian striker has won six of his last seven outings and comes into this clash off consecutive victories. He edged out a split decision win over Cesar Almeida following his loss to Anthony Hernandez and followed it up with a late finish of Chris Curtis in January that took his knockout tally to 12 and moved him up to No. 14 in the rankings, one spot below his opponent this weekend.

Momentum is very much on Kopylov’s side, and I can’t see Costa pulling off the upset due to his inability to pull the trigger. Add Kopylov’s three-inch reach advantage, and he should score the biggest win of his career to date.

Prediction: Kopylov by decision.

Best Bet: Kopylov by decision at 2.00.

Alternative Bet: Kopylov at 1.42.

Kevin Holland (1.20) v Daniel Rodriguez (4.33) (Welterweight)

A fighter’s fighter and prolific finisher, Holland (28-13) will look to keep the good times going and bank his third win of 2025.

“Trailblazer”, who has 23 finishes to his name (14 knockouts and nine submissions), loves nothing more than to throw down inside the Octagon, and after outpointing Gunner Nelson in March to snap a two-fight losing skid, he tapped out Vicente Luque last month to re-enter the welterweight top 15 at No. 13.

Holland is as entertaining as he is skillful and is as dangerous on the ground as he is on the feet. Super tall and rangy for a welterweight, the 6’3″ fan favourite will have a two-inch height and a massive seven-inch reach advantage.

After losing three straight, Rodriguez (19-5) got back in the win column with a split decision victory over Alex Morono last October, but his real return to form came in May when he knocked out Santiago Ponzinibbio.

“D-Rod” is a brawler and the bigger power puncher of the two, whereas Holland is a slick, sophisticated sniper. It’s a great stylistic matchup for Holland as he should be able to counter the ultra-aggressive Rodriguez and get him out of there.

Prediction: Holland by stoppage.

Best Bet: Holland by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 1.72.

Alternative Bet: Holland by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.87.

Dan Ige (1.42) v Patricio Freire (2.75) (Featherweight)

UFC veteran Ige (19-9) will want to hammer home the point that there are levels to mixed martial arts when he squares off against Freire (36-8). 

Ige, who’d long been respected as a fixture in the upper ranks of the featherweight division, reached legendary status last June when he stepped up to fight Diego Lopes on just four hours’ notice and pushed the streaking Brazilian every step of the way.

His decision defeat was anything but a loss as he’d gained so much more through his unprecedented gameness. The hard-hitting Hawaiian went on to drop a decision to undefeated Lerone Murphy four months later but got back on track with a knockout win over Sean Woodson in April. 

One of Bellator’s all-time greats, Freire stumbled when tasked with making the step up to the UFC in April, losing his Octagon debut to Yair Rodriguez by decision.

Better known as “Pitbull”, the former two-weight Bellator champion will be feeling the pressure to deliver against the No. 11-ranked contender. Should he fall short again, he’ll battle to get another high-profile fight.

With both men being well-rounded, Ige’s wealth of Octagon experience and four-inch reach advantage should prove decisive.

Prediction: Ige by decision.

Best Bet: Ige by decision at 2.20.

Alternative Bet: Ige at 1.42.

Michael Johnson (5.00) v Daniel Zellhuber (1.15) (Lightweight)

An evergreen veteran and a young gun known for their entertaining styles will get the main card underway.

Johnson (23-19) has an average record, but he has a couple of big wins to his name. He beat Tony Ferguson in his UFC debut back in 2012, got past Edson Barboza in 2015, and knocked out the man around whom this weekend’s card has been built, Poirier, in 2016.

At 39, “The Menace” has shown he still has what it takes to get the job done and has registered back-to-back wins for the first time since 2018. The crafty southpaw may have lost speed but still carries power, as he showed last time out when he knocked out Ottman Azaitar at the end of last year.

An exciting prospect, Zellhuber (15-2) put on an epic against Esteban Ribovics at UFC 306 but ended up on the wrong side of a split decision verdict. It was just the Mexican prospect’s second loss and halted a three-fight win streak.

“Golden Boy” is a high-volume puncher, much more so than his opponent, landing 6.26 significant strikes per minute compared to Johnson’s 4.23, and it’s that high pace and the speed of Zellhuber, who’s 13 years younger than his veteran foe, that should result in a knockout win for the up-and-comer.

Prediction: Zellhuber by knockout.

Best Bet: Zellhuber by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.75.

Alternative Bet: Under 2.5 rounds at 1.85.