WAFCON Preview: Banyana’s final group game

Banyana are through to the quarter-finals, but will be aiming to win their group.

They come into this game on the back of a disappointing 1-1 draw against lowly ranked Tanzania. However, the confluence of other results in Groups A and B means that the point gained in the draw has helped them qualify for the quarter-finals, the mechanics of which are explained below. We preview their final group game

Key stats

• Banyana have not lost their final group game at WAFCON since 2008 (W5 D1)
• Mali have never scored a goal or won a game against Banyana (P2 W0 D0 L2)
• Banyana have qualified for the quarter-finals for a 9th consecutive tournament

How have Banyana qualified

Banyana have progressed past the group stages for the 11th time, including each of the last nine tournaments. One has to go back to 2004 for the last time they were knocked out at the group stages of the competition. It’s an impressive record overall, even if it was secured in unspectacular fashion this time around, with a 1-1 come-from-behind draw. The girls needed Bambanani Mbane’s late equaliser to rescue a point against a team they were fancied to beat. This was the first time in WAFCON history that Banyana came from a goal down to draw a game, having lost 21 of the previous 22 such situations (W1).

Notwithstanding that final Group C result, the girls have secured a place in the quarter-finals. This is due to the tournament’s format, which features three groups but requires eight quarter-finalists, meaning the two best third-placed teams qualify as well. With other third-placed teams Senegal (Group A) and Botswana (Group B) both finishing on just three points, Banyana’s current total of four points guarantees that even in the worst-case scenario, they’ll finish as one of the two best third-placed teams.

Head-to-head v Mali

There are scenarios where Banyana can end up in any of the 1st, 2nd or 3rd in this group. It is still important for Banyana to win this game; however, as there are repercussions on the level of opponent they face. Winning the group sets them up against Senegal in the next round (ranked 9th in Africa). Should they finish second, they face Algeria (ranked 10th), while a third-place finish pits Banyana against Morocco, whom they beat in last year’s final (ranked 3rd). There is a negligible ranking difference in the first two potential opponents, but it is clear that Morocco is the team to avoid, when you also consider that there will only be a 72-hour turnaround for this fixture compared with the other two (96 hours).

The odds are in Banyana’s favour once again, with a 64% chance of victory on the bet.co.za platform. Mali are given only a 14% chance of winning, no wonder their odds are so high (6/1). Yet, Banyana were strong favourites to win against Tanzania, but only drew. However, Tanzania (23% chance of victory) was seen as a stronger opponent than the Malians, and Mali have a terrible record against us at this tournament (P2 W0 D0 L2 without scoring a goal). South Africa haven’t lost their final WAFCON group game since 2008, and have often scored at will in the final group game.

20 – Since WAFCON2010, Banyana have scored 20 goals in total on Matchday 3, more than in Matchday 1 and Matchday 2 combined (18 goals in six editions)

Bet team to win: Banyana to win (at 1.6/1)

Value Bet: Over 2.5 goals (at 1.9/1)