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Once in a Lifetime: Canelo v Crawford Preview and Prediction
All-time greats collide in a dream match as undisputed super middleweight champion Saul “Canelo” Alvarez faces undefeated four-division king Terence Crawford at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.
Canelo Alvarez (1.57) v Terence Crawford (2.50) (Undisputed Super Middleweight Championship)
When: 6 AM Sunday SA time
There’s never been a Mexican Independence Day weekend boxing event quite like this one. This isn’t just the fight of the year. It’s a once-in-a-lifetime showdown of icons – a titanic clash that transcends titles as Mexican megastar Canelo and unbeaten American ace Crawford battle for legacy.
The dream match will usher in a bold new era in boxing as it’s the first Zuffa Boxing event, promoted by UFC president Dana White, as part of the TKO brand. Brokered by Turki Alalshikh, the 12-round bout for the undisputed super middleweight title will be broadcast globally on Netflix.
The winner will also clinch a special title created by the Ring, which cost upwards of $188,000 to make. According to Rick Reeno of The Ring magazine, it is “the most expensive belt ever created.” But, as mentioned, this is about more than titles. These are legends driven by legacy.
Mexico’s biggest boxing star and the face of the sport for over a decade, Canelo is a commanding force inside the squared circle, holding a stellar record of 63-2-2 with 39 knockouts. His only two losses came to Floyd Mayweather in 2013 and Dmitry Bivol in 2022.
Most recently, the 35-year-old cruised past the previously undefeated William Scull in May to become the undisputed king at 168 pounds for the second time and make it six wins on the trot. He’s held championships from light middleweight through to light heavyweight, but crucially, when it comes to this weekend’s blockbuster, he’s unbeaten at super middleweight.
An intimidating icon, Canelo has power and skill in equal measure. As complete as they come, he can walk down and overwhelm an opponent, or outbox him, depending on the situation. He’s both a phenomenal counter striker and a potent pursuer, and given his significant size and power advantage in this fight, he’s set to put the pressure on Crawford.
One can never truly master the sweet science, but Crawford has certainly come close to it. Boasting a perfect record of 41-0 with 31 knockouts, “Bud” is one of boxing’s great tactical wizards. A highly sophisticated southpaw, he attacks from a plethora of angles and keeps his opponent guessing throughout a fight. He’s a master of distance management, adept at gliding in and out of range and setting up counters, and he fires off fast combinations.
The 37-year-old is a four-division champion and two-weight undisputed king. He’s won titles at 135, 140, 147, and, most recently, 154 pounds when he beat Israil Madrimov last August. The ever-game great now makes the leap all the way to 168 pounds as he bids to become the first male boxer to become a three-division undisputed champion in the modern four-belt era.
Keen to put an end to “Tom & Jerry fights”, where one fighter is “running around the ring and another fighter is chasing him”, Alalshikh, the chairman of the General Entertainment Authority and president of the Saudi Boxing Federation, has installed a knockout bonus for this and future fights he promotes.
This, however, won’t entice Crawford – as the smaller man – to stand and bang with Canelo. While he won’t “runaway”, you can bet on Crawford being in perpetual motion throughout as a means to change angles, score points, and avoid power punches.
Incredibly, neither of these men has ever been knocked down across a combined 765 rounds fought in their careers, and while it remains to be seen how Crawford copes with the power of an explosive 168-pounder for the first time, the dream match should go to a decision.
Crawford, with his speed, skill, and movement, is a live dog, but Canelo should slow/wear him down with his power as the fight goes on and come away with the win.
Prediction: Canelo by decision.
Best Bet: Canelo by decision at 2.10.
Alternative Bet: Canelo at 1.57.