UFC Fight Night: Hill v Rountree Jr Predictions

Three local heroes will be in action on the main card in lightweight trio Rafael Fiziev, Tofiq Musayev and Nazim Sadykhov. Fiziev faces Ignacio Bahamondes in the co-headliner, Musayev meets Myktybek Orolbai and Sadykhov squares off against Nikolas Motta.

Plus, one of the best heavyweights in the world Curtis Blaydes throws down against promotional newcomer Rizvan Kuniev, and Muhammad Naimov and Bogdan Grad go at it at featherweight.

MAIN CARD:

When: Saturday, June 21, 9 PM SAST 

Jamahal Hill (2.00) v Khalil Rountree Jr (1.76) (Light Heavyweight)

Headlining the world’s leading mixed martial arts promotion’s first event in Azerbaijan is a pivotal clash in the 205-pound division.

Both men are destructive strikers looking to get back in the win column and begin another run towards a title shot. Hill (12-3) is coming off knockout losses to then-champion Alex Pereira and ex-titleholder Jiri Prochazka, while Rountree (13-6) put up a good fight but was also stopped in his title fight against Pereira.

Two big, explosive, top-10 light heavyweights, this will be a banger.

The two men were previously booked to throw down in April however, Hill was forced to withdraw due to injury. It’s been a rough two years for Hill. After winning the title in a masterful performance against Glover Teixeira in 2023, he was forced to vacate it after rupturing his Achilles tendon.

“Sweet Dreams” haven’t looked the same since, moving with less of a flow and a spring in his step and being stopped in both of his post-surgery bouts as mentioned. He did have moments of success against Prochazka, but that came to nought in the third round.

He’s still ranked fourth, though, and the fact that he’s an exceptionally long and rangy striker, and a southpaw at that, makes him a tough puzzle for anyone to solve. Prior to his title triumph over Teixeira on the scorecards, he’d claimed five wins in a row by knockout and has seven KOs to his name in all.

Rountree was a surprising pick as Pereira’s third title challenger last October as he was in lowly eighth place in the rankings at the time. He’d racked up a career-best five-fight win streak, though, with four of those victories coming by knockout, and had a breakout performance despite his defeat to “Poatan”, hurting the then-champion and showing great grit before finally being stopped in the fourth round.

“The War Horse” is also a southpaw and has sound fundamentals and good blitzes, a combination that should serve him particularly well in this fight. He’s an intelligent and vicious Muay Thai expert with wicked power, which has earned him nine wins by knockout.

Despite giving up size, Rountree has the speed and blitzing ability to close the distance and get to work on the inside in what promises to be a stand-up battle. That will make all the difference in this one and should see Rountree close the show to break into the top five.

Prediction: Rountree Jr by knockout.

Best Bet: Rountree Jr by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.25.

Alternative Bet: Rountree Jr at 1.76.

Rafael Fiziev (2.05) v Ignacio Bahamondes (1.75) (Lightweight)

The co-main event is also a striker’s delight pitting a compact, heavy-handed boxer and Muay Thai practitioner in local favourite Fiziev (12-4) against a long, rangy and flashy kickboxer in Bahamondes (17-5).

A stable in the lightweight top 15, Fiziev’s rise saw him go on a six-fight win streak including stoppage victories over Renato Moicano and former welterweight champion Rafael dos Anjos.

Then came a decision loss to the great Justin Gaethje, followed by a loss to Mateusz Gamrot due to a serious knee injury that kept him out of action for over a year. Biting off a bit more than he can chew, he returned on short notice against Gaethje in March and started strong before fading and dropping the rematch by decision.

Bahamondes, in contrast, is on a three-fight win streak, all by stoppage. The Chilean has an impressive highlight reel but is making a serious step up in competition here as he looks to break into the rankings. Unusually tall and rangy for a 155-pounder, the 6’3″ “La Jaula” will tower over his 5’8″ opponent and will have a four-inch reach advantage.

For as good as Bahamondes has looked, Fiziev is a different beast, whose high-level experience, crisp striking and good head movement should see him to victory.

Prediction: Fiziev by decision.

Best Bet: Fiziev at 2.05.

Alternative Bet: Fiziev by decision at 3.60.

Curtis Blaydes (1.35) v Rizvan Kuniev (3.10) (Heavyweight)

Just why Blaydes (18-5), a perennial top contender, accepted this fight against a largely unknown promotional newcomer is beyond me. The fifth-ranked American has little to gain other than bounce back from his stoppage loss to interim champion Tom Aspinall and everything to lose.

As a humble and hard-working athlete, Blaydes won’t see this as an easy payday, but rather as an opportunity to demonstrate that there are levels to mixed martial arts. Arguably the most powerful wrestler in the heavyweight division with vicious ground-and-pound, “Razor” looks to go on another run towards the title.

Few have gotten the opportunity to fault straight into the top five in their UFC debut like Kuniev (13-2-1) has in front of him. Unbeaten in his last dozen fights, the Russian punched his ticket to the UFC with a first-round knockout of Hugo Cunha on Dana White’s Contender Series last August.

While Kuniev is a solid grappler, Blaydes is in a different stratosphere. The UFC greenhorn also tends to gas out in the second half of fights, whereas Blaydes’ cardio is one of his biggest strengths. Bank on Blaydes getting a stoppage.

Prediction: Blaydes by knockout.

Best Bet: Blaydes by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.30.

Alternative Bet: Under 2.5 rounds at 1.80.

Tofiq Musayev (2.37) v Myktybek Orolbai (1.55) (Lightweight)

Musayev (22-5) might be making his UFC debut, but he’s been doing his thing at a high level for a long time. A former Rizin champion who also competed in Bellator, a run of 18-2 in his last 20 fights and back-to-back stoppage wins have earned him his shot in the big league, in front of his home crowd no less.

A dangerous striker, Musayev boasts 20 finishes, including 18 knockouts, and if he is to win, he’ll have to find the proverbial killshot. That’s because Orolbai (13-2-1) is a dominant grappling machine adept at neutralising stand-up fighters, doing exactly that to win his first two UFC fights before dropping a split decision to Mateusz Rebecki last October.

With a five-inch reach disadvantage, Musayev will have to get in close, which plays into his opponent’s game plan of initiating grappling exchanges and taking him down. Musayev definitely has a puncher’s chance, but the smart money is on Orolbai to spoil his foe’s Octagon debut.

Prediction: Orolbai by decision.

Best Bet: Orolbai by decision at 3.20.

Alternative Bet: Orolbai at 1.55.

Nazim Sadykhov (1.20) v Nikolas Motta (4.33) (Lightweight)

Sparks will fly in this lightweight scrap between two aggressive strikers.  

Sadykhov (10-1-1) hasn’t lost since being submitted in his pro debut back in 2018. “The Black Wolf” has been feasting since then and has a 90% finish rate. A southpaw who stopped Ismael Bonfim last time out, he’ll be extra fired up fighting at home.

After a shaky start to his UFC career, Motta (15-5) has managed to build some momentum with back-to-back wins, claiming his 10th knockout against Tom Nolan before outpointing Maheshate. “Iron” has hands of steel, but it’s Sadykhov who’s the more skillful and smooth striker, which should see him bring the house down.

Prediction: Sadykhov by knockout.

Best Bet: Sadykhov by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.25.

Alternative Bet: Under 2.5 rounds at 1.50.

Muhammad Naimov (1.35) v Bogdan Grad (3.10) (Featherweight)

All-action featherweights promise to get the main card off to an exciting start. 

Naimov (12-3) is 3-1 inside the Octagon and got back in the win column with a decision victory over recent Ultimate Fighter finalist Kaan Ofli in February.

Grad (15-2) made his promotional debut on the same card and made an excellent first impression by knocking out the favoured Lucas Alexander.

Can the Austrian overcome the odds again? Not in my view. Naimov is tactically and technically superior and should be able to lead the dance to win on the scorecards.

Prediction: Naimov by decision.

Best Bet: Naimov by decision at 2.60.

Alternative Bet: To go the distance at 2.10.