UFC 317: Topuria v Oliveira Predictions

A second title will be on the line when Alexandre Pantoja defends his flyweight championship against the dangerous Kai Kara-France in the co-headliner. Staying in the 125-pound division, No. 1-ranked Brandon Royval will look to earn a title shot by halting the rise of Joshua Van.

Plus, top-15 lightweights Beneil Dariush and Renato Moicano duke it out and punishing bantamweight Payton Talbott takes on Felipe Lima.

MAIN CARD:

When: Sunday, June 29, 4 AM SAST

Ilia Topuria (1.16) v Charles Oliveira (4.75) (Lightweight Championship)

Natural-born killers with extraordinary skillsets square off for the 155-pound gold in a main event matchup reminiscent of a gladiatorial death match in the Colosseum.

A new champion will be crowned after pound-for-pound king Islam Makhachev vacated the title ahead of his move up to welterweight later this year to challenge new 170-pound champion Jack Della Maddalena.

In Topuria and Oliveira, you have fierce former champions from different generations wired with a kill-or-be-killed mindset. It’s a prodigious talent who’s never tasted defeat against an all-time great, a power-punching phenom against the UFC’s apex predator.

Former featherweight titleholder Topuria looks to become just the 10th fighter in UFC history to win titles in two different weight classes, while Oliveira aims to become the first two-time lightweight champion.

Topuria, who holds a perfect professional record of 16-0 with 14 finishes (six knockouts and eight submissions), has become a legend killer and vows to take out “Do Bronx” like he did Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway in his last two fights.

The ultra-dangerous Oliveira, on the other hand, is out to show Topuria that the 155-pound division is a completely different ball game.

A confident, new-generation killer, Topuria called his shot and delivered when he knocked out long-time 145-pound king Volkanovski to claim the crown last February. “El Matador” followed it up by becoming the first man to knockout another superstar in the featherweight GOAT conversation in Holloway last October.

Having conquered the 145-pound division, the 28-year-old – who represents Georgia and Spain – relinquished the title with his eyes set on adding the lightweight championship to his collection. Standing in his way, though, is no ordinary adversary.

Oliveira boasts the most finishes and most submissions in UFC history with 20 and 16 respectively. He also has the most performance bonuses in company history with 19.

The Brazilian veteran broke through by becoming champion when he stopped Michael Chandler in 2021 and beat “Iron” by decision in their rematch last November to earn another crack at golden glory.

Both men are complete fighters. They have crisp striking and world-class jiu-jitsu. Striking-wise, Topuria has faster and heavier hands with superior speed and footwork, while Oliveira is the more decorated pure grappler.  

At 35, Oliveira – whose record stands at 35-10 – will draw on his experience and his uncanny ability to stay calm in chaos. His technical striking and scrambling ability will also serve him well.

These two are so ferocious and gifted that their showdown is almost guaranteed to finish by stoppage. Oliveira is a live dog, but Topuria’s speed and power should see him seize the lightweight throne.

Prediction: Topuria by knockout.

Best Bet: Topuria by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.57.

Alexandre Pantoja (1.36) v Kai Kara-France (3.00) (Flyweight)

Flyweight champion Pantoja (29-5) looks to continue his dominant reign by turning back another hungry challenger in Kara-France (25-11) in the co-main event.

Both men were on season 24 of The Ultimate Fighter back in 2016 and are now at the pinnacle of the sport. Pantoja has cemented himself as the best 125-pounder on the planet with title defences against Brandon Royval, Steve Erceg and Kai Asakura. 

Kara-France, meanwhile, is one of the hardest hitters and best strikers in the division and eyes his first UFC title following his first-round knockout of Erceg last August.

Pantoja is the most complete flyweight you’ll find, which, coupled with his high fight IQ, is what separates him from his challengers. His striking is at a very high level and he’s a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt. Triumph this weekend and “The Cannibal” will not only improve his win streak to eight but effectively clean out the division.
 
A highly skilled striker, Kara-France has fluid movement and dynamite in his hands, which have earned him a dozen wins by knockout and the nickname “Don’t Blink.” The New Zealander, who trains with the legendary Israel Adesanya at City Kickboxing, will do everything in his power to keep the fight standing where he has the advantage.

Beneil Dariush (1.95) v Renato Moicano (1.80) (Lightweight)

The featured bout is a highly intriguing clash of top 15 lightweights, both of whom boast black belts in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Muay Thai.

Ninth-ranked Dariush (22-6-1), a southpaw, has considerably more power on the feet. The Iranian, however, isn’t as durable as he was in his prime and is coming off back-to-back first-round losses to Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan.

“Benny” has taken some time off to recover but with it comes the possibility that he might be rusty as he makes his first appearance since December 2023.

Eleventh-ranked Moicano (20-6-1) was on a four-fight win streak before he accepted an opportunity of a lifetime to fight for the title as a late replacement for Tsarukyan in January. It was not to be for “Money” as he was submitted by Makhachev and looks to get back in the win column here.

While both men are 36, Moicano seems to have a lot more left in the tank. The Brazilian is also the busier fighter, throwing at a higher volume, so he should get his hand raised.

Prediction: Moicano by decision.

Best Bet: Moicano at 1.80.

Alternative Bet: Moicano by decision at 4.00.

Brandon Royval (1.95) v Joshua Van (1.80) (Flyweight)

Believing in his abilities, Royval (17-7) is taking a risk here. The No. 1-ranked flyweight contender was originally scheduled to face Manel Kape, but after the Portuguese standout was forced to withdraw due to a foot injury, “Raw Dawg” accepted a late change of opponent.

At 23, Van is one of the youngest and most exciting prospects in the UFC. Born in Myanmar, he’s been ultra-active, racking up a 7-1 record in the UFC in just two years, and can vault into title contention with a win this weekend.
 
“The Fearless” will have a speed advantage over his 32-year-old foe but gives up considerable size and experience. This is his first fight at the elite level, where Royval has resided for years, so it’ll be interesting to see how he handles the pressure at such a young age.
 
While I do feel Van is the real deal, Royval’s veteran savviness should see him get the job done.

Prediction: Royval by decision.

Best Bet: Royval at 1.95.

Alternative Bet: Royval by decision at 3.00.

Payton Talbott (2.50) v Felipe Lima (1.50) (Bantamweight)

Blue-chip prospects in the bantamweight division will get the main card underway. 

Talbott (9-1) started the year as one of the most-hyped rising stars. A sniper of a striker with seven knockouts, including against South Africa’s Cameron Saaiman, he was unbeaten before he ran into Raoni Barcelos in January.