Soweto Derby 2026 Preview

This weekend sees the biggest match on the local football calendar, as Kaizer Chiefs host Orlando Pirates in the Soweto derby. The two teams have had a bit of a wobble in February, as both were knocked out of the Nedbank Cup and both suffered potentially damaging defeats in the league. For Chiefs, CAF elimination also means February has been a month of continuous setbacks amid a decent position in the league. We review the big game, by looking at some numbers behind the teams.

Chiefs need to shoot smarter, not more

It is not an exaggeration to say that this game may define bothb teams’ seasons. A win for Chiefs will bring them closer to their minimum goal of CAF qualification, while a defeat would leave them 11 points behind Pirates, albeit with a game in hand. While Chiefs’ defence has proved steady all campaign, their attack has underwhelmed in large parts. 16 games in, Chiefs average exactly one goal per game, a chastening number for a club with big ambitions. Since the opening day victory away to Stellenbosch, Chiefs have scored more than one goal in a league game only once (a 4-1 win over Orbit College).

Trying hasn’t been the issue at Chiefs. Rather, they are shooting from all the wrong places. As per the usual, Chiefs lead the league in shots taken. The table below shows that only Chippa and Marumo Gallants shoot from a further distance than Chiefs.

The result is a “chances created/shots taken” number that looks threatening, but it’s a false positive. A highly charged game like the Soweto derby may be fertile ground for impulsive decisions and speculative shots that grab the headlines. But shooting in better positions may be the difference maker for Chiefs.

1 – Only once before have they scored fewer at this stage – they had 13 goals from 16 games  in 2017/18.

Pirates have the derby momentum, but can they make the most of their chances?

A win for Pirates will see them leapfrog Sundowns for at least one day, and revive a season that has threatened to unravel in the last week. The good news for the Bucaneers is that they have the derby momentum. They have won the last four league derbies, their best run of winning the derby in PSL history. In Relebohile Mofokeng, they have a player in good form and who has the ability to decide big games. Altogether Pirates have enjoyed the most big chances of all teams in the league (52), but 40 of these have been wasted. Mofokeng and his teammate Oswin Appollis have been responsible for 16 of these (eight each), but Pirates have not taken advantage of this creative brilliance.

Another midfielder, Patrick Maswanganyi is the team’s leading goalscorer with five goals in the competition. But Abdeslam Ouaddou will be hoping to get more from his strikers. Evidence Makgopa clearly relishes playing in the derby, boasting three goals in this fixture. However, he’s had a mixed season in front of goal, averaging 1 shot per appearance (48 minutes between shots).

That may be enough for teams lower down the table, but it won’t be enough for a title-chasing team.

2.4 – Pirates have missed 40 big chances this season (at 2.4 per game), their worst ratio post 2020.