Permutations: Bafana Bafana’s Big Week

Weeks don’t come much bigger for Bafana Bafana than the next five days between Friday and Tuesday. Hugo Broos and his men have been a cut above all Group C teams on the field, despite being clumsy off it. At the end of last month, FIFA handed Bafana a 3-point (and a 3-0 defeat) penalty for fielding an ineligible player in one of the World Cup qualifiers. The punishment meant that Bafana dropped one place to 2nd on the table, losing points and importantly a goal-difference advantage to hand Benin the driving seat in the group. The final two games (against Zimbabwe on Friday and Rwanda on Tuesday) are now more important than before. We preview this week with various permutations that could apply.

The Permutations

While the deduction of points was a blow, the truth is Bafana’s qualification is still in their hands. The team had accumulated 17 points, so the deduction takes that down to 14 points, meaning no team has more points in the group as it stands. Indeed, Zimbabwe have been knocked out of the running already, but Lesotho, Rwanda and Nigeria can still overtake Bafana. We broke down the various permutations from the six possible outcomes of this week’s double-header.

Bafana Win-Win

Two wins for Bafana this week will present their best chance of qualification, as this will limit the competition to just Benin. Yet, there are scenarios where even six points may not be enough. In order to qualify directly, Bafana will need two wins AND the following criteria to also be met:

• Benin must not win both their games (win and draw sends Bafana through)
• If Benin also wins their two games, Bafana’s winning margin must be more than Benin’s margin by two goals (e.g Benin wins 1-0 and 1-0, Bafana wins 1-0 and 3-0)

Bafana Win-Draw

One win and one draw for Bafana will leave Bafana in a decent (not great) position. This would take Bafana to 18 points on the table and again limit the competition to just Benin. In this case, if Benin wins both their games Benin qualifies. A draw and a win will be enough for Bafana only if:

• Benin lose at least one game (Bafana qualifies)
• Benin draw both their games (Bafana qualifies)
• If Benin also end up with win-draw results, Bafana’s winning margin must be more than Benin’s margin by two goals (e.g Benin wins 1-0, Bafana wins 3-0 in their respective victories)

Bafana Win-Lose

Should Bafana lose any of their games, things will get more complicated. Not only will they need their one win to be by a big margin, one loss will reinstal Rwanda and Nigeria as potential qualifiers as well. If Bafana end up win one win and a loss, we will only qualify if:

• Benin loses at least one game (goal difference may still matter)
• Nigeria and Rwanda lose at least one game
• Should various results end up with teams level on 17 points, Bafana will need to win by a margin that ensures they have the best goal difference of all teams

Draw-Draw

Two draws may be enough for Bafana to qualify, but that is a risky outcome. It will swing the door wide open for the other competitors. Two draws are enough if:

• Benin do not win any of their two games, and one of those MUST be a loss
• Nigeria do not win BOTH their games
• Rwanda do not win BOTH their games

Draw-Lose

Should Bafana draw and lose one game each, the path to qualification will be as small as the eye of a needle. For example, Benin must not win any of their games, and even in defeat, it will matter who they lose to and possibly by how much. Nigeria and Rwanda should lose at least one game, but Rwanda’s defeat in this scenario would be only against Benin, giving Benin the qualification spot. It is also a goal-difference sensitive scenario.

Lose-Lose

Should Bafana lose both their games, they are out of automatic qualification.

Various combinations of winning and losing margins can tilt things slightly here, but the above picture is as close as you’ll get to a full grasp of the possibilities. After Friday’s games, the permutations will become more clear. With all this said, there is another qualification route should Bafana finish second. The expanded World Cup means four African teams can still qualify via an inter-continental playoff that will involve teams from other continents. However, the simplest route is to win both games.