CAF Matchday 6 Permutations

The group stages of the CAF Champions League and Confederations Cups conclude this weekend. South Africa has three representatives in these competitions, who all face different levels of difficulty progressing to the next stage. For starters, Stellenbosch are already out of the running for progressing to the quarter-finals, as they are five points behind the team in second with one game to play. Kaizer Chiefs and Sundowns can still qualify, but the various permutations make this interesting.

Kaizer Chiefs

Kaizer Chiefs kicked off their group stages with one point from two games, and looked like they were well on the way out. However, three consecutive wins (a double against Zesco and last weekend’s win over Al Masry) have set them back on course. Chiefs go into the final day in pole position and have an easier “path” to navigate compared to Sundowns. The onus is on Chiefs’ challengers to dislodge them at the top of Group D.

How Chiefs can go through

Firstly, Chiefs will go through to the knockout round if they do not lose in Egypt away to Zamalek. Both draw and win will ensure they qualify as Group winners. Secondly, they can also go through if they lose and Al Masry does not win against Zesco (i/e if Al Masry lose or draw). In the scenario where Al Masry does not win, Chiefs will be through as Group Runners-Up irrespective of their (Chiefs’) result.

What happens if Chiefs lose?

However, there are complicated permutations if Chiefs lose.

• If Kaizer Chiefs lose to nil (i.e lose without scoring), any Al Masry win will knock Chiefs out of the running for the knockouts. For example, if Chiefs lose 1-0 and Al Masry win 1-0, Chiefs will be out.

• If Kaizer Chiefs lose by 2-goal margin, any Al Masry win will also knock Chiefs out of the running for the knockouts. For example, if Chiefs lose 3-1 and Al Masry win 1-0, Chiefs will be out.

• Moreover, any Al Masry win by a 2-goal margin (or more) will also knock Chiefs out. For example, Al Masry win 2-0, Chiefs are out (irrespective of their losing scoreline).

Yet, there is a slim chance for Chiefs to lose and still go through. Should Chiefs lose by a single goal AND Al Masry win by a single goal, the tie breaker rules slightly bend in their favour. A combination of Al Masry 1-0 Zesco and Zamalek 3-2 Chiefs, will mean the progressing team is decided by the throw of a dice.

Zamalek v Kaizer Chiefs Kickoff: Saturday 14 February, 1800hrs SAST

Sundowns

As for Sundowns, they have a narrower window of opportunity, but their permutations are clearer. Downs go into the final day outside the qualification places, so there is work to be done to dislodge the two teams above them. Should Sundowns fail to win on Sunday (draw or lose), they’ll be knocked out of the Champions League.

However, any type of win against MC Alger, who are coached by their former boss Rulani Mokwena will send them through to the next round. With Sundowns, there are no margins of victory needed to progress. Margins of victory will only matter when deciding whether they go through as winners or runners-up.

2018 – The last time Sundowns failed to progress beyond the Group stages was in 2018.

Sundowns v MC Alger Kickoff: Saturday 14 February, 1500hrs SAST