Betting Notebook_ PSL Matchday 5

Matchday 5 of the PSL takes place this weekend, with a full round of games ahead of the FIFA international break. Stellenbosch will host Sundowns in the biggest game of the weekend at Athlone Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

High-flying Kaizer Chiefs take on Golden Arrows in KZN later in the day, while Orlando Pirates will be looking to continue their revival away to Chippa United on Sunday. Betting Notebook is a statistical preview of selected games ahead of the weekend.

Stellenbosch v Sundowns

In terms of current form, this is just a game between the team in 3rd and the team in 11th. But in terms of recent history, it’s a clash against teams that have consistently ended at the top end of the table for a while. Stellies were enterprising in picking up their first win against Marumo Gallants on Tuesday, and will be looking to build on that. Their visitors, meanwhile, were outclassed by Chiefs on Wednesday night, but stil remain a threat and formidable team. The teams met four times last season, with two wins apiece – such is the close nature of this tie. No team has won away to Stellenbosch this year (except Kaizer Chiefs), with the other 15 visitors leaving with either a draw or a defeat. However, the last team to beat Stellies at home (that was not Chiefs) is Sundowns.

⅘ – Four of the last five games between these sides have been decided by a 1-0 scoreline.

Main bet: Stellies win or draw

Value bet: Under 2.5 goals

Golden Arrows v Kaizer Chiefs

Last season, Chiefs were the last team to register their first clean sheet in the league, only coming on 29 December in their 10th game of the season. This season, they are set to be the last team to concede a goal (if/when it happens). Their defensive improvement has been a key recipe to an impressive start to the season, and the same was on display midweek. They travel to a Golden Arrows side that has slowly climbed up the table after losing on Matchday 1, picking up two home wins along the way. While this does not scream “big game”, it’s still significant given Arrows’ home form (3 home wins in a row is their best run in four years) and given how they have troubled Chiefs in recent years.

6 – Post-lockdown, Arrows have won more league games against Chiefs than vs any other side (6).

Main bet: Draw or Chiefs win

Value bet: Over 2.5 goals

Chippa United v Orlando Pirates

Few fixtures in PSL history are as one-sided as this one – since 2016, Chippa have won just one of 18 league games against Pirates, drawing two and losing the other 15. No wonder the odds are heavily stacked against the hosts here – a 16% implied win probability for them compared to a 63% probability for Pirates. The Buccaneers are slowly shifting into gear after a slow start to the season, and a win here will take them back into the top half of the table. One win in five on the road since mid-May could be a red flag for Pirates, but Chippa’s form could mean they are the perfect opponent to help turn that green.

11 – Chippa are winless in 11 league games (P11 W0 D4 L7 since the end of March), currently the longest run without a win by any team in the division.

Main bet: Pirates win

Valu bet: Over 2.5 goals