Betting Notebook: AFCON2025 Final

Two of Africa’s top nations will clash in Rabat on Sunday as the Africa Cup of Nations concludes with a heavyweight final. By many measures, these are the two best national teams on the continent. Tournament hosts Morocco and 2021 champions Senegal, were pre-tournament favourites with Opta predicting them to be at least in the top three to become eventual winners. Indeed, Morocco (1st) and Senegal (2nd) are the two top-ranking African teams based on FIFA World rankings. The occasion feels even bigger given that this is the first ever meeting between Morocco and Senegal at AFCON. Add the coincidental factor of this being a battle of the Lions – the Atlas Lions (Morocco) and the Lions of Teranga (Senegal). Our Betting Notebook brings you the statistical context ahead of the big game.

Morocco

Morocco had a long path to the final on Wednesday evening, as they had to go the full hog to penalties against Nigeria, eventually winning the shootout 4-2. Youssef El-Nesyri scored the winning penalty and Yassine “Bono” Bounou saved two as Morocco advanced to the final. They are participating in their first AFCON final since 2004, the last time they lost the final to North Africa rivals Tunisia, in Tunis. Should they win on Sunday evening, it will be their first victory for 50 years, as their last title came in 1976. Morocco has heavily leaned on Brahim Diaz (17 shots) the entire tournament. Ismael Saibari (10 shots) and Ayoub El Kaabi (11 shots) are Morocco’s other two threats in front of goal.

Senegal

Facing the hosts will be the 2021 AFCON champions, Senegal, who defeated Egypt 1-0 in the other semi-final on Wednesday evening. The Lions of Teranga found it tough to break down a deep seated Egyptian defence, but got what they deserved thanks to Sadio Mane’s goal. Senegal took 12 shots against Egypt, yet only managed to take three inside the box, showing how deep Egypt’s defence set up. Senegal’s danger men lie across three main players: Sadio Mane (16 shots), Pape Gueye (15 shots) and Nicolas Jackson (12 shots) have combined for 43 shots (46%) of their team total.

Attack v Defence

This final will be a battle of the strongest defence at the tournament and a team with attacking flair. Morocco stands out in that their defence has been miserly. After six matches, they are yet to concede a goal from open play. The only goal they conceded was a penalty against Mali, meaning they also boast a tournament high five clean sheets. Moreover, they have faced just five shots on target (only two from inside the box), and concede an average 0.45xG per game.

Senegal on the other hand have taken nearly 100 shots at AFCON (94), and have scored at least once in every game they have played. Only Nigeria (14) have more goals. Importantly, the Senegalese do not waste shots. Of the 94 shots taken, 47 of thrm have been on target, which is the best accuracy of all teams in the division. Senegal has also accumulated 11.3 xG, which is also second only to the Nigerians. It will be a fascinating tactical battle that may even go to extra time, but there is no doubt, this will be a battle of the heavyweights.

Team to win: Senegal

Value bet: Both teams to score

Goalscorer bet: Sadio Mane