AFCON 2025 Preview: Group A

The 35th edition of the Africa Cup of Nations (popularly known as AFCON) kicks off this coming weekend. The tournament will be hosted by Morocco, starting on 21 December 2025 and crossing over to January 2026. As usual, this tournament pits the tactical stability of the North African powers against the raw firepower of the West African giants and the guile of Southern Africa. Morocco, Egypt and Senegal are the heavy favourites to win the tournament BetCentral will be bringing you statistical reviews and previews across the tournament, starting with Group-by-Group previews this week.

Who will win Group A

Morocco

For the first time since 1988, Morocco welcomes the continent, aiming to end their own five-decade wait for a trophy they last won in 1978. The Atlas Lions will be hoping their golden generation can build on their 2022 World Cup exploits, where they became the first-ever African team to reach the semi-finals of the tournament. Like Ivory Coast in 2023, they will also be aiming to make the most of home advantage to win the tournament as hosts. Our friends at Opta (who we will be working with throughout the tournament) have run a statistical model predicting every stage of the tournament. The Moroccans are given a 94% chance of progressing from this group, with a 58% chance of finishing first.

Star players to watch: Achraf Hakimi (PSG), Bahim Diaz (Real Madrid), Youssef En-Nesyri (Fenerbahçe)

Mali

Mali will likely be Morocco’s toughest opponent in Group B. The Eagles have been a strong team on the continent for the last few AFCON editions, regularly reaching the knockout rounds. In the last edition, they were only eliminated in the Quarter-finals by the eventual winners Ivory Coast, dramatically. Leading 1-0 heading into injury time, they conceded a 90th-minute equaliser and a 120th-minute winner to bow out painfully. They have never won the tournament before, but they should be good enough to reach the knockouts once again. They have been given an 80% chance of progressing, implying a strong position in the group. With a 6.4% chance of winning the tournament, Mali are the 10th favourites for the title.

Star players to watch: Yves Bissouma (Tottenham Hotspurs), Dorgeles Nene (Fenerbahçe), El Bilal Touré (Besiktas)

Zambia

The Copper Bullets of Zamba will be Southern Africa’s representatives in Group A.  After winning the 2012 edition, the Zambians have struggled to make their mark in subsequent tournaments. The next six editions have seen them either fail to qualify for the tournament outright (3 times) or get knocked out in the Group stages (3 times). However, a qualifying campaign that saw them lose just one game may be ideal preparation for a better showing. They are third favourites to reach the Last 16 in the Group (51% chance of progressing), and even that will be a step forward given past struggles.

Star players to watch: Patson Daka (Leicester City), Lameck Banda (Lecce)

Comoros

The last team in Group A are Comoros, who will be appearing in just their second tournament. In 2021, Comoros surprised many as debutants, reaching the Last 16 at the first time of asking. They will be hoping for a repeat of that in 2025, but are in a tough group. They start their journey in the opening match of the tournament against Morocco, in what may be a baptism of fire for them. However, a win against Zambia in Matchday 2 will boost their chances of progress massively, which currently stand at 39%. Like the Zambians, getting out of the group safely will be the minimum goal.

Star players to watch: El Fardou Ben Nabouhane (Zemun), Youssouf M’Changama (Al Batin), Rafiki Saïd (Standard Liège)