Newcastle v Aston Villa – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Villa have won 14 of their last 17 matches in all competitions. The Magpies have won 11 of their last 14 home matches.

Newcastle Form

Since losing 1-0 away to Man Utd, it’s just one loss in seven matches for Newcastle. They’re formidable at home with 11 wins in the last 14 fixtures at St. James’ Park. A 3-1 win at Burnley was followed by a 2-0 home win over Crystal Palace. A 4-3 home win over Leeds saw a winner in the 12^th minute of additional time.

A 3-3 home draw vs Bournemouth in the FA Cup was followed by a win on penalties. They lost 2-0 at home to Man City in the Carabao Cup semi-final first leg. A dull 0-0 draw away at Wolves was followed by a 3-0 home win over PSV in the Champions League in midweek.               

Newcastle Team News

Bruno Guimaraes is a doubt for this match after an injury vs PSV. Dan Burn, Fabian Schar and Tino Livramento are all out injured in defence.

William Orsula is nearing a return up front, but Jacob Murphy is out. Coach Eddie Howe must decide whether to recall Nick Woltemade or if Yoane Wissa will lead the line.

Newcastle Motivation

At home, Newcastle will play with energy and intensity. They will go all out to beat Aston Villa to close the gap to the Champions League places.

An attacking display is expected. If they go in front, Howe’s side could sit back and look to hit Villa on the break.

Aston Villa Form

Villa’s last 17 matches have seen 14 wins in all competitions. After 11 straight victories, they lost 4-1 at Arsenal with 3.04 xG conceded. They responded by beating Nottingham Forest 3-1 at home with 73% possession. Aston Villa could only draw 0-0 at Crystal Palace despite having 15 shots in the match.

A 2-1 win away at Tottenham in the league was followed by a surprise 1-0 home defeat to Everton despite having 63% possession and 18 shots. On Thursday, they went to Turkey and beat Fenerbahce 1-0 thanks to Jadon Sancho’s first-half header.

Aston Villa Team News

Ross Barkley and Boubacar Kamara are out injured in midfield. John McGinn is also set to be absent in the engine room.

Marco Bizot is on standby start in goal as Emi Martinez nurses a calf injury. Ezri Konsa will be recalled in defence, whilst Jadon Sancho will hope to keep his place in attack.

Aston Villa Motivation

Villa are full of belief. They will go to Newcastle and try to win the game, though a point is not a bad result.

Unai Emery’s side is focused on being solid and compact. Possession stats won’t concern them.

Key Stats

• Newcastle have won 11 of their last 14 home matches.
• Newcastle have scored 12 goals in their last 3 home matches vs Aston Villa
• Aston Villa have won 14 of their last 17 matches
• Villa have lost 3 of their last 4 EPL matches at St. James’ Park (13 goals conceded)

Verdict

The stats point to an unpredictable game with plenty of goals. A score draw and Over 3.5 goals looks like a good tip.

Best Bet: Over 3.5 goals at 2.60

Value Bet: Draw at 3.70

Alternate Bet: Newcastle win/draw double chance + Over 2.5 goals at 2.25