Benfica vs Real Madrid – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Benfica famously beat Los Blancos in late January to secure a playoff spot. Real Madrid have won six of their last seven matches under Alvaro Arbeloa.

Benfica Form

Jose Mourinho’s team sit seven points off FC Porto in the title race. January was a bad month as they lost 3-1 at home to Braga in the Portuguese League Cup and 1-0 at Porto in the league. After beating Rio Ave 2-0, they lost 2-0 to Juventus and were on the verge of an early exit from European competition.

A 4-0 home win over Estrela boosted confidence. A bonkers 4-2 home win over Real Madrid saw a 98th-minute headed winner by goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin secured a place in this playoff phase. Benfica put up 3.01 xG in that win vs nine men. A disappointing 0-0 draw at Tondela was followed by two wins: 2-1 over Alverca and 2-1 at Santa Clara.

Benfica Team News

Defensive midfielder Joao Veloso is doubtful for this match and he has not featured yet in 2026. Young winger Olivio Tome is unavailable for this match.

Versatile winger Fredrik Aursnes is set to miss out through injury. Samuel Soares and Richard Ríos will need late fitness tests.

Benfica Motivation

Benfica will take confidence from creating eight big chances in the last meeting with Real Madrid.

They will try to win this home leg, to give themselves a prayer in Spain in the return leg next week.

Real Madrid Form

Los Blancos are slowly recovering top form and getting good results again. Xabi Alonso was fired after the 3-2 loss to Barcelona in the Spanish Super Cup. Under Alvaro Arbeloa, they lost 3-2 at Albacete to exit the Copa del Rey. Six wins have followed in the last seven matches, starting with a 2-0 victory over Levante.

They smashed Monaco 6-1 in the Champions League before winning 2-0 at Villarreal. The shocking 4-2 defeat away to Benfica followed, before beating Rayo Vallecano 2-1. After winning 2-0 at Valencia, they beat Real Sociedad 4-1 on Saturday with 3.12 xG produced.

Real Madrid Team News

Jude Bellingham is out with a hamstring injury. Centre back Raúl Asencio and winger Rodrygo are out through suspension after their red cards in the last clash with Benfica.

Kylian Mbappé is fresh after being rested in the last match. Éder Militão is a long-term injury, but Trent Alexander-Arnold is fit and could be handed a start.

Real Madrid Motivation

Real Madrid will be forewarned about Benfica. A more focused, defensively solid display is expected compared to the defeat in Lisbon three weeks ago.

They will go to Portugal and look to avoid defeat or nick a win. Los Blancos will have every confidence of winning at home next week to reach the last-16.

Key Stats

• Benfica have lost 3 of their last 9 matches
• Benfica have won 3 of their last 4 Champions League matches
• Real Madrid have won 6 of their last 7 matches
• Real Madrid’s Mbappe has scored 13 goals in 7 Champions League matches this season

Verdict

Both sides should score in this fixture. Real Madrid will be more focused than for the last clash. I see Mbappe inspiring a win in Portugal.

Best Bet: Real Madrid Win and Both Teams to Score at 3.30

Featured Bet: Real Madrid Win, Both Teams to Score and Mbappe to score anytime at 4.00

Goalscorer Tip: Mbappe to score two or more goals