URC Predictions – Round 17

Log leaders Leinster, the defending champion Glasgow Warriors, the Bulls and the Sharks have already booked their places in the last eight, leaving the rest of the field bar Zebre and the Dragons to fight it out for the four remaining spots.

While Leinster are all but assured of top spot, Glasgow, the Bulls and the Sharks still have much to play for as they seek to finish second and secure a possible home semi-final.

The Sharks kick off Round 17 with a clash against the Ospreys at Kings Park on Friday night. Saturday will see the Bulls battle Cardiff at Loftus Versfeld and the Stormers square off against the Dragons in Cape Town before the Lions tackle the Scarlets at Ellis Park on Sunday afternoon.

Sharks v Ospreys

Friday, 9 May – 19:00 SAST

Narrow wins over Edinburgh (19-18) and Ulster (22-19) on tour showed that even though the Springbok-laden Sharks are still not clicking as one would expect as a collective, they have character and grit.

They’ll run out for their homecoming in fourth place on 53 points, five behind the Bulls and six behind Glasgow. Second place is probably out of reach for them, but they’ll nevertheless aim to pick up maximum points in their remaining fixtures to get in the groove going into the quarter-finals.

The 11th-placed Ospreys, who cantered to a 57-24 win over the Dragons last time out, are three points behind eighth-placed Benetton and face a must-win scenario to keep their playoff hopes alive. They’ll offer resistance, but the Sharks should come away with a comfortable victory.

Prediction: Sharks by 19.
Suggested Bet: Sharks -17 at 1.90.

Munster v Ulster

When: Friday, 9 May – 20:35 SAST

There will be no quarter asked or given in this Irish derby. Both teams have suffered back-to-back losses, Munster to the Bulls (16-13) and Cardiff (26-21) and Ulster to Leinster (41-17) and the Sharks (22-19). Both are out of the top eight as a result, with Munster sitting ninth and Ulster 12th.

Munster have a chance to do the double over their local rivals after they edged out a 22-19 win in Belfast in December. Aside from having home-ground advantage this time around, they also have better strike runners and superior defence, which should see them prevail.

Prediction: Munster by 7.
Suggested Bet: Ulster +8 at 1.90.

Bulls v Cardiff

Saturday, 10 May – 16:00 SAST

Like the Sharks, the Bulls are back home after banking vital victories over Munster (16-13) and Glasgow (26-19) abroad to close the gap on the latter to a single point. Given Glasgow have to play Leinster next weekend, the Bulls have set themselves up to finish second, provided they win their last two home games.

Cardiff are clinging onto fifth place after their 26-21 win over Munster but defeat at Loftus could see them drop out of the top eight. The visitors from the Welsh capital will thus go all out in their bid to cause an upset. The Bulls have won all three meetings between the teams and are dialled in at the moment, so expect them to keep that 100% record intact.  

Prediction: Bulls by 15.
Suggested Bet: Cardiff +18 at 1.90.

Stormers v Dragons

When: Saturday, 10 May – 18:15 SAST

With the mercurial Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu firing on all cylinders at flyhalf, the Stormers have climbed up to sixth place and are looking to make it three wins in a row. Coming off their most complete performance of the season, which saw them batter Benetton 56-5, this game against the basement dwellers will be a test of their professionalism.

Having won just a single game all season, the Dragons should be in for another drubbing like they endured against the Ospreys (57-24) last time out. They’ll no doubt try to target the one glaring chink in the Stormers’ armour, that being tighthead after Brok Harris joined Frans Malherbe on the injured list.

The Stormers will know patience and structure will be important to build the expected lead, while they’ll also want to avoid conceding soft tries. I see them achieving all of these objectives and scoring some slick tries to continue their surge up the ladder.

Prediction: Stormers by 28.

Suggested Bet: Dragons +32 at 1.90.

Leinster v Zebre

When: Saturday, 10 May – 18:15 SAST

Fuming after their shock 37-34 Investec Champions Cup semi-final loss to the Northampton Saints last weekend, Leinster are set to take out their frustrations on the poor men from Parma, who find themselves at the wrong place at the wrong time.

After three straight losses, Zebre managed to hold Edinburgh to a 25-all draw in the previous round but they’ll be no match for the angry log leaders, who’ll guarantee themselves top seeding in the playoffs with this win.  

Prediction: Leinster by 30.
Suggested Bet: Leinster -28 at 1.90.

Benetton v Glasgow Warriors

When: Saturday, 10 May – 18:15 SAST

After being crushed in Cape Town in the previous round, Benetton have to dig down deep and deliver in their final home game if they want to hold on or improve on their eighth position. Similarly, the Warriors have to win to stay in second place going into the final round of league action next weekend.

Benetton are one of the better teams when it comes to maximising home conditions, playing a clever kicking game, but how much did the 51-point pummelling by the Stormers scar them? The Warriors have the weapons to pile onto the Italians’ problems and are poised to bounce back from their seven-point loss to the Bulls.

Prediction: Glasgow Warriors by 6.
Suggested Bet: Glasgow Warriors -2 at 1.90.

Connacht v Edinburgh

When: Saturday, 10 May – 20:35 SAST

Teams who have dropped off in recent weeks face off in Galway.

Connacht are coming off a winless South African tour and are in lowly 14th place while Edinburgh are winless in their last three games in all competitions. They’re fresh off a 39-24 loss to Bath in the EPCR Challenge Cup semi-finals and drew 25-all with Zebre in their last URC game.

Sitting 10th, the Scottish club will be desperate to come away with the win but they’ve travelled poorly this season, managing just one victory away from home against Munster (34-28). Connacht will be happy to be back home and should mark their return with a win.

Prediction: Connacht by 4.
Suggested Bet: Edinburgh +6 at 1.90.

Lions v Scarlets

When: Sunday, 11 May – 15:00 SAST

Teams who scored morale-boosting wins in the previous round will collide head-on at Ellis Park to close out the round.

The Lions snapped a five-match losing streak with a convincing 26-7 win over Connacht, while the Scarlets handed Leinster just their second loss of the season, triumphing 35-22.

Technically, the 13th-placed Pride still have a slight mathematical chance of reaching the playoffs, but the reality is they’re set to lose out. All they can do now is finish the season strong and do other teams a favour by taking down the seventh-placed Scarlets.

With little to no pressure, the Lions have a licence to thrill and should outgun their visitors with the assistance of altitude to make it a full house of wins for the South African sides.

Prediction: Lions by 7.
Suggested Bet: Scarlets +7 at 1.90.